US targets delays in Taiwan weapons deliveries amid warnings of PLA attack by 2027
“That is a specific task by the president to his military forces,” Aquilino said. “When [Xi] gives them a task, they will move out on it.”
Other US military officials and experts, including CIA director William Burns, have also expressed concern about the possibility of Beijing’s being able to attack Taiwan by 2027.
Beijing regards Taiwan as its territory to be brought under control, even if it means resorting to force. Like most countries, the US does not recognise Taiwan as independent but is opposed to any forcible change in the cross-strait status quo.
However, delays in American arms shipments to Taiwan in recent years have prompted concerns in both the US Congress and Taiwan that this could undermine the island’s military preparedness.
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Mark Alford, one of the group members from the House Armed Services Committee, said there was an urgent need to “reduce the backlog in delivering foreign military sales to Taiwan”, saying swift action was needed to help Taiwan “maintain its defensive capacity against potential military and other forms of coercion”.
He said he and his colleagues were “committed to putting pressure on the powers that be” so Taiwan could receive the weapons and aid it needed.
In response, Chiu said on Wednesday that he felt the US side had “already taken many steps” to speed up the weapons systems deliveries.
“For instance, they have set up a ‘Tiger [Technical, Industrial and Governmental Engagement for Readiness] team’ to aid us, whether in discussing our arms acquisitions or expediting the delivery of individual cases to prevent delays. This [approach] is always commendable and the defence ministry welcomes such initiatives,” Chiu said.
The team is tasked with identifying the cause of the delay and resolving it.
The largest portion consists of US$10.87 billion in traditional arms, followed by US$5.4 billion of asymmetric weapons and US$2.84 billion in munitions.
The delayed asymmetric weapons included Harpoon coastal defence missiles, MQ-9B unmanned aircraft, and Stinger missiles, Cato said in its March 5 report.
In a February 7 report, the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which also established a bipartisan Tiger team to identify problems, warned of the risks associated with delays and lack of transparency in foreign military sales, stressing the potential adverse impact on US national security.
“Numerous cases face delays that directly endanger US national security to date, and for Taiwan alone, 19 outstanding weapons purchases totalling US$22 billion have been approved by Congress but await delivery in 2027 or later. Some cases do not even have anticipated delivery dates assigned,” the report said.
Analysts cautioned that delayed shipments would have a detrimental impact on Taiwan if the island relied solely on foreign military sales.
“Weapons systems and munitions, especially the large items involving advanced technologies, require considerable time to be combat-ready,” said Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei.
With the increasing threats posed by the PLA, delayed shipments will bring a negative impact on Taiwan’s [combat] readinessAlexander Huang Chieh-cheng, Tamkang University
He said it took three to five years to transition newly acquired systems from initial operational capability to full operational capability.
Huang suggested that in addition to efforts to hurry up suppliers, Taiwan could work with the US government to initiate the training and education phase of the foreign military systems in the United States before delivery.
“Taiwan should also accelerate its military organisational adjustments and personnel recruitment while awaiting the delivery of foreign military sales,” he added.
Su Tzu-yun, a senior analyst at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank in Taipei, said: “Normally, weapons ordered now are intended to replace or enhance current combat capabilities within a five-year time frame. Even with delays of two or three years, the impact on our military’s combat readiness would be minimal.”
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Su was confident that with the resumption of normal supply chains following the pandemic, America’s weapons delivery to Taiwan would eventually get back on track.
“This approach not only spreads risks but also ensures the retention of indigenous technology in Taiwan,” Su said, pointing out that Taiwan had the capacity to produce over 60 per cent of its military equipment and systems.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, domestic production accounts for 64 percent of Taiwan’s arms procurement, with a focus on missiles, constituting 56 per cent of total acquisitions.
Chang Yen-ting, a retired Taiwanese air force general, stressed the importance of expedited weapon deliveries. He said delays of five or 10 years could render the delivered weapons outdated or irrelevant to actual battlefield needs by the time they arrive.
“They might not be able to fully utilise their firepower potential due to the emergence of newer technologies, which would render them obsolete,” he said.