A New Face, But an Old Tactic: History Offers Clues on Stopping Russia’s African Advance
By Herman J. Cohen - May 1, 2024
The
conflict in Gaza has taken center stage in global affairs. But while
the eyes of the world are drawn to the Middle East, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has been working in the background to expand Russia’s
influence in Africa. His tactics are drawn from the Soviet Union’s Cold
War playbook. He offers military support, now via the mercenary Wagner
Group, to unstable regimes across the continent, helping them retain
power in exchange for diplomatic allegiance and natural resources.
If
the US does not meet this issue head-on, the consequences for African
nations and the international community could be dire. US policymakers
should look at the history of the Soviet Union’s diplomacy on the
African continent– a period I witnessed personally as a diplomat on the
ground– for clues on how to effectively respond to and combat this
growing issue.
Russia in Africa
A
string of coups in Africa’s Sahel region, most recently this past
August in Gabon, have opened a unique set of opportunities for Russia to
insert itself – and Putin has not been hesitant to fill the vacuum of
power. Moscow’s presence across this unstable region has become
unmistakable. Anti-government demonstrators in Niger, Mali, and Burkina
Faso flew the white, blue, and red flag of the Russian Federation ahead
of the overthrow of their respective governments. Mali’s government is
now reported to be working alongside Wagner Group soldiers, and Burkina
Faso’s leadership has hailed Russia as a strategic ally and admitted
receiving significant military aid from the country.
Late last
year, the Wagner Group’s Sahel contingent “rebranded” itself as the
Africa Corps, an apparent homage to Nazi Germany’s notorious Afrika
Corps. No matter the name they operate under or the insignia on their
uniforms, both US and African policymakers should be clear-eyed that
what we are seeing across the continent is largely a continuation of
Soviet-era Africa policy. The unexpected silver lining? This approach
has embedded within it the same core vulnerabilities now as it did then,
which we can use to counteract this growing campaign of influence.
The
stakes are high. As a United States diplomat who worked face-to-face
with several 20th-century African strongmen like Muammar Gaddafi and
Joseph Mobutu, I know from firsthand experience that ignoring this issue
will not yield benefits, nor a path to self-rule for the 1.2 billion
people on the continent. The US must, in 2024, pay close attention to
what Moscow is attempting and pre-empt it by fostering economic
development. Challenged democracies may find what Russia is offering
dangerously enticing.
Russia’s renewed and expanding involvement
in Africa has already returned large dividends, as Putin grabs for
economic gains in the face of international sanctions placed on him in
response to the invasion of Ukraine. Many of the juntas that sprang up
in the wake of this recent spate of coups in about a dozen African
countries now enjoy military backing from Putin and Wagner.
Russia’s
actions on the continent are gaining support from African nations in
the United Nations General Assembly, where Russia is accumulating votes
from its newest allies. In response to a 2022 resolution condemning
Russia for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, half the African
delegations voted no, while the other half abstained.
My
experience as a diplomat in this region tells me we’re seeing an old
strategy. The Russian approach of using chaos as an opportunity to
insert itself by offering military support to unstable regimes in the
Sahel has significant parallels to what they did in the wake of the
initial colonial European withdrawal from the continent.
The
Soviet Union reaped significant rewards from its Cold War-era push,
while the people and their nations and economies lost out. But perhaps,
by drawing lessons from the past, we can help African nations avoid the
same pitfalls.
Decolonization and Token Gestures
Beginning
in 1955, the Soviet Union worked to identify and support African
nationalist leaders whose anti-Western views could align with their
Marxist worldview, including Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana and Agostinho Neto
of Angola. In countries like Ethiopia and the Congo, Moscow provided
socialist-leaning leaders and anti-government militias with munitions,
military advisors, and training.
Two decades later in Angola,
when the 1975 withdrawal of the Portuguese created chaos in the country,
the Soviets sent troops from friendly Cuba to make sure the
communist-aligned Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA)
emerged the winner. These Cuban troops would remain in Angola for 16
years to ensure that the MPLA stayed in power. Perhaps here we can see a
parallel with Russia’s modern-day use of the Wagner Group as a military
proxy, helping to prop up friendly leadership.
A crucial detail
is this: lacking an equivalent to the United States Agency for
International Development (USAID), the Soviets had no way to foster
meaningful economic development. Instead, they focused on paltry
symbolic gestures like creating “people’s palaces,” to house the local
African-Marxist political party and serve as a meeting place for the
local parliament.
Economic Development and Lessons from the Past
The
economically dysfunctional Russia of today still cannot offer African
regimes economic support. While authoritarian leaders like
Faustin-Archange Touadéra in the Central Africa Republic secure their
positions with Wagner Group support, little benefit is shared with the
general population. Instead of fueling economic strength for the public,
national resources like diamonds and gold are diverted to feed the
Africa Corps/Wagner machine and sent clandestinely to Russia.
There
is an effective counter to Russia’s growing influence in Africa that
avoids drawing us into a prolonged and costly military conflict. Rather
than confronting Russian proxies on the ground, the United States can
supply African countries with the economic development they have needed
since the early days of the Cold War.
We’ve helped to turn
countries like South Africa into rich trading partners. We should aim to
do the same for others. The instability that has proven fertile ground
for Russian influence is largely downstream from economic deprivation.
By continuing to foster trade and economic growth among African nations,
we can inoculate them to the influence of Russian state actors, without
ever having to go toe-to-toe with them militarily.
Investments
in USAID, in multilateral banks and smart trade agreements like the
African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) are helpful steps to counter
the growing Russian influence. We must also work to encourage investment
in these African countries, both by their own growing middle classes
and by foreign investors. It’s important to make other countries on the
continent wealthier, and therefore more stable, for the benefit of their
citizens, US national security, and the geopolitical world at large.
Maybe
people weren’t looking closely enough before Russia invaded Ukraine two
years ago. And so, even as the world must keep focused on Israel,
Palestine, and Ukraine in 2024, this is not a time to be distracted from
Moscow’s intentions and allow Wagner’s Africa Corps’ destabilizing
activities to take root in the Sahel.
Our policymakers need to
stay focused on a strategy of fostering economic development. Show Putin
he will not find success there any more than he has found in Ukraine.
Remind Africa’s people and leaders to be wary of Russians bearing
“gifts” and provide them viable alternatives to Moscow’s enticements.
Ambassador
Herman J. Cohen is a 38-year veteran of the Foreign Service and a
former advisor to presidents. During his career in the Foreign Service,
Ambassador Cohen served in five African countries and twice in France.
He was the ambassador to Senegal, with dual accreditation to the Gambia,
from 1977 to 1980. He also served as special assistant to President
Ronald Reagan (1987-1989), principal deputy assistant secretary for
intelligence and research, and principal deputy assistant secretary for
personnel, as well as assistant secretary of state for African affairs
under President George H.W. Bush (1989-1993). Ambassador Cohen is the
author of a number of books, including a recent memoir entitled Africa,
You Have a Friend in Washington: An American Diplomat’s Adventures South
of the Sahara (2023).