A Time for Fear
Summary: the creation of quasi-state mercenary militias
in Egypt raises the prospect that the Sisi regime is preparing itself
for civil strife as the country’s economy continues to falter and more
and more Egyptians are driven into absolute poverty.
We thank Maged Mandour for today’s newsletter. Maged is a political
analyst and a regular contributor to Arab Digest and to Middle East Eye
and Open Democracy. He is also a writer for Sada, the Carnegie Endowment
online journal. Maged is the author of the recently published Egypt under El-Sisi
(I.B.Tauris) which examines social and political developments since the
coup of 2013. Keep an eye out for it! You can find Maged’s most recent
AD podcast here.
On 1 May in a semi-official ceremony heavily covered by local media the creation of the Union of Arab tribes (AUT), a union of five tribes from across the country, was announced. AUT is headed by the infamous Ibrahim El-Organi,
a Sinai tribal leader and a close ally of the security services. El-
Organi was one of the leaders of a tribal grouping that joined with the
regime in its long and bloody counter-insurgency campaign against IS
militants in North Sinai. It is a campaign that has seen numerous
human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings of minors, forced
disappearances and the use of heavy weaponry in populated areas
resulting in significant civilian casualties.
The stated goal of the AUT is to support the Egyptian state and fight
sedition across the country. These are convenient euphemisms for
backing the Sisi regime and repressing its political opponents. Indeed,
the close alliance between the regime and the AUT was made public in a
series of dramatic gestures. One saw the AUT announce the inauguration
of “Sisi City”, a new city on the Egyptian- Israeli border to be built
on the site of al-Arjaa, a village that El- Organi claims
was a bastion of support for IS, thus a symbolic statement to signal
the victory of the regime over the insurgents. Another instance is the
naming of Sisi as honorary President of the AUT.
The emergence of El-Organi and his regime-allied militia is part of
an alarming trend, with the regime diversifying its repressive apparatus
to include non-state actors that could prove essential in the
repression of a popular protest movement with little cost to the
official security forces. Essentially, we could be witnessing the
emergence of an Assad-like Shabiha, who have been responsible
for mass abuses and massacres during Syria’s ongoing civil war. This is
not to argue that consecutive autocracies in Egypt did not rely on a
criminal network
to rig elections and intimidate opponents but there seems to be a
qualitative shift of policy towards reliance on officially sanctioned
militias that have access to military grade weaponry, something that
Egypt has not witnessed in living memory.
The AUT is not alone in this trend, with the emergence of Sabri Nakhnoukh, a well known thug sentenced to life in 2014 for charges that included weapons and drugs possession. In May 2018 he was the recipient of a presidential pardon leading to his immediate release. In September 2023 Nakhnoukh purchased Falcon Group,
the most important private security firm in the country, considered by
many to be a front for military intelligence. The company was sold for
the token price of EGP 3 million (roughly US$ 64,000) with the new owner agreeing to take over the Falcon Group’s debt which had reached EGP 120 million. The company
employs 15,000 people, and has a rapid deployment force which works
closely with the ministry of the interior to combat “terrorists”. Falcon
Group is also responsible for securing universities, consulates and the
headquarters of a number of large companies. This effectively makes it a
close adjunct force to the security services and responsible for
securing vital buildings. The company is well placed to serve as a
direct participant in repression of dissent if and when it erupts. It is
worth noting that Nakhnoukh was part of a network of Mubarak era thugs that the regime habitually used to rig elections and harass activists.
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