Vietnam rocked by political upheaval: 5 things to know
Security Minister To Lam elected president, nation's No. 2 political post
TOKYO -- Vietnam's national assembly on Wednesday elected 66-year-old Public Security Minister To Lam as the country's president, the second-highest post in the Communist Party.
The Southeast Asian nation has been engulfed in political upheaval since March, with several top government officials leaving their positions.
What is happening inside the communist-ruled country? Here are five things to know.
How is the Communist Party structured and how does it rule?
About 5% of the nation's population of 100 million are members of the Communist Party. Of them, 180 Central Committee members hold significant decision-making power, while the Politburo -- currently comprising 16 people -- is the most influential group in the party.
Leading the Politburo are the so-called four pillars, which -- ranked from the top -- are the general secretary, president, prime minister and National Assembly chairman.
In the wake of the Vietnam War in the 1960s and 1970s, authorities have emphasized the decentralization of power. The general secretary always comes from the north, while the remaining three "pillars" could be from other regions.
In the past, being a member of the Communist Party signified power and success, although not so these days. Most Vietnamese believes that many politicians hold power over state-owned enterprises. Even after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2009, Vietnam has been slow to reform its SOEs, with a culture of vested interests and bribery yet to be eradicated.
Which politicians have been ousted and why?
In March, then-President Vo Van Thuong, who was seen as a candidate to succeed General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, resigned after just a year in his post due to breaking party rules.
Then in April, National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue, another candidate for the top job, resigned over violating regulations governing Communist Party members.
This month, former Cabinet Secretary Mai Tien Dung was arrested on corruption charges related to the development of a resort. Truong Thi Mai, the only female Politburo member, resigned after violating regulations.
Other top figures have stepped down over the last few years. Nguyen Xuan Phuc suddenly resigned as president in January 2023 because of corruption related to COVID-19 countermeasures. In December 2022, Pham Binh Minh, was dismissed as deputy prime minister for his failure to prevent a corruption case.
What's behind the upheaval and why's it happening now?
The wave of dismissals and resignations is seen as being directly linked to the 2026 Communist Party National Congress, a pivotal event in Vietnamese politics.
Held every five years, the congress has the power to shape the future leadership of Vietnam. The 2026 event is expected to focus on who will succeed the current leader, Trong, 80, who -- unusually -- is serving a third term, a situation reminiscent of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"Vietnam's political upheaval is very much political infighting over who will be the successor to General Secretary Trong," said Futaba Ishizuka, a researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies, adding that the new president, Lam, will be a key figure.
"Lam's power to maintain his influence over the Public Security Ministry will be one of the key factors that determine whether he can become general secretary," Ishizuka continued.
Has the political chaos hurt Vietnam's economy?
Not so far. Vietnam is still enjoying economic tailwinds as a "China plus one" investment destination, with international businesses diversifying their production bases beyond China amid mounting tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Indeed, a survey of Japanese companies released in March by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), found that Vietnam was the second most popular country for such overseas expansion after the U.S.
Some observers note that other countries in the region offer less political certainty than Vietnam, despite the recent turmoil. "Even if there is some political strife, the communist government system is unlikely to change," said Ryuichi Ushiyama, a professor at Japan's Keiai University.
There has been some impact in the world of business, however. Government officials, fearful of corruption crackdowns, have started pushing decisions up the chain of command on issues such as the licensing of business developments, delaying such processes.
South Korean and Japanese companies, which have been ramping up investment in Vietnam, are voicing their concerns. "Our planned development project in Hanoi is likely to be delayed by at least one to two years," said a senior executive at a Japanese trading company.
How is Vietnam's political situation linked to U.S.-China tensions?
Vietnam is culturally, historically and economically close to neighboring China. The Vietnamese Communist Party was modeled on China's, while its Doi Moi economic reform of the mid-1980s was inspired by Chinese open-door policies.
Even though the Communist Party is pro-China, many people in the country as a whole are wary of their larger neighbor. The State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey, compiled by Singaporean think tank the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, found that only 21% of respondents in Vietnam would choose China over America if they were forced to pick sides.
"The Chinese government will be conscious of strengthening its connections with and supporting pro-China politicians [in Vietnam]," said Keiai University's Ushiyama.
Last September, the U.S. upgraded its diplomatic relationship with Vietnam, with the Asian nation jumping two steps at once to become a "comprehensive strategic partner" -- putting its status on par with China and Russia. This exceptionally unusual upgrade is expected to help pro-American politicians in Vietnam strengthen their hand.