In this morning’s interview on WION, India’s premier English-language global television channel, I was given the opportunity to comment on two of the key issues in yesterday’s international news: the latest statement to the press by Hungarian premier Viktor Orban that Russia has no intention of attacking a NATO country; and President Putin’s offer to conclude a cease-fire and negotiate a settlement with Ukraine based on the present line of contact between the warring parties.
Orban made his remark in the context of his efforts to cool down the hotheads among European Union leaders, such as the premier of Estonia, who want to step up the NATO presence in Ukraine arguing that the Ukraine is just the first country on the Continent that Russia seeks to overrun, that an attack on NATO countries will follow if the Kremlin is not stopped now. It also fits into his assertion a day ago that Hungary is reexamining its NATO obligations and refuses to be drawn into out-of-area fighting such as in Ukraine today.
However, as I note in this interview, Orban’s well-meaning statement about Russian war planning is incorrect. If NATO persists in escalatory behavior and poses an existential threat to Russian security, such as by sending aloft F16s on missions to attack Russian territory, then I believe it is highly likely that Russia will respond with a very serious counter-attack against the country that launched the provocation, whether it is a NATO country or not.
As regards President Putin’s answer to questions from the press yesterday during his visit to Minsk over Russia’s intentions for entering into negotiations with Kiev for an end to hostilities, I believe his proposal to declare a cease-fire based on the present line of contact was made in earnest. The context here was how Russia views the about to be convened ‘peace conference’ in Switzerland to which Russia has not been invited.
Putin’s point was that notwithstanding his dismissal of the Swiss gathering as an empty propaganda exercise on behalf of Ukraine, Russia is ready to enter into real negotiations to end the conflict if such an opportunity presents itself and without preconditions.
Yes, this would mean that Russia abandons the prospect of taking the entirety of the predominantly Russian-speaking Donbas. However, territorial conquest was never the motive driving the Special Military Operation, contrary to all the talk in the West of Mr. Putin’s alleged imperial ambitions. The Russian objectives from the day of its armed incursion in Ukraine in February 2022 were clearly stated: demilitarization and denazification. In effect, given the nature of the ruling clique in Kiev, these demands amount to regime change in Ukraine. And it is precisely regime change today, not territorial aggrandizement that motivates Mr. Putin and his government as they pursue the war.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024
Russia-Ukraine War: Putin says ceasefire, Ukraine says phony sign | WION News