The End Of America’s Pan-Sahel Vision – Analysis
By Vivek Mishra and Samir Bhattacharya
Amidst a rapidly receding influence abroad, the United States (US) finds itself in yet another quagmire, this time in Africa. In Niger, both France and the US have had to withdraw troops one after the other led by the French withdrawal at the end of last year. As part of the broader trend across the ‘coup belt’ in Africa, Western troops have been ousted in favour of Russian military presence. The US and Russia are not new to power games in Africa. Erstwhile, during the era of Cold War, the erstwhile Soviet Union and the US competed against each other in several proxy wars such as Ogaden War between Ethiopia and Somalia or in Angola.
However, this time the US may be ceding ground to Russia in a critical geography where its counterterrorism efforts were central in preventing a rapid sway of terrorist groups like the Islamic State and Boko Haram across the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. In recent years, groups such as the Al-Qaeda affiliate group Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have also grown strongly in the region. As a result of the withdrawal from Niger, the US would lose two military bases in the country that were critical for its regional counterterrorism efforts and hosted 1,000 troops.
Over the past year, the US troops in Niger ceased active training or assistance to Nigerien forces. Nevertheless, their presence provided some resistance against Jihadist forces. With the US now agreeing to withdraw its troops from Niger, decades of counter-terrorism efforts are poised to be undone, significantly impacting future efforts. A key point of contention between the US and Niger was the transition timeline. While Niger’s Junta rulers advocated for a three-year transition back to civilian government, the US declined to work with the Junta government.
At a time of increasing global rift between the world’s major powers, with Russia and China drawn ever closer, the last thing Washington wished for was a jostle for a continued military presence in Niger and wider Africa. Recently, the Congolese army claimed that it foiled a coup attempt which involved Americans.
Turmoil in Sahel
In July last year, the West African nation of Niger came to the limelight when followed by a coup, thousands of Niger nationals took to the streets to celebrate the overthrow of long-serving President Mohamed Bazoum. Since then, Niger has consistently been in the news. The coup was followed by the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States, or L’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), on 16 September 2023, where Niger joined Mali and Burkina Faso. These two neighbouring countries also witnessed a coup within last two years and are currently ruled by Junta governments.
A loose mutual defence agreement, the Alliance of Sahel States pledges its members to support one another militarily should any of them come under attack. Under the framework of AES, all three States also agreed to cooperate to end or prevent armed uprisings. Further, on 28 January 2024, all three AES member states withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the 15-member West African regional organisation.
The West African nation is rich in natural resources, particularly uranium, which is vital for the nuclear industry. Niger ranks seventh globally in uranium production and is a significant supplier to France. Prior to the coup, nearly 15 percent of France’s uranium, and one-fifth of the European Union’s, originated from Niger. Consequently, recent developments in Niger are understandably causing discomfort for France and the wider Europe.
In addition to its role in the energy security of Europe, Niger also contributes enormously to the stability of the volatile Sahel region. With about 1,000 US troops and 1,500 French troops, Niger has been a crucial ally of the West in the fight against Islamist militancy in the whole Sahel region. The US also maintained two drone sites in Niger: Niamey and Agadez. Only six years ago, the US invested around $110 million in constructing these two drone bases. In addition, the US spends around US$30 million annually for their maintenance. France, its coloniser, also had 1,500 military personnel in Niger who left Niger in December 2023.
To withdraw its troops from Niger, France executed a highly perilous operation, with convoys traversing hazardous desert routes spanning nearly 1,700 kilometres before reaching neighbouring Chad, where France has stationed its current Sahel operation. Meanwhile, the withdrawal plan for US troops has yet to be finalized and remains under discussion. The US troops is expected complete its troop withdrawal from Niger by 15 September this year. The Pan Sahel Initiative which the US launched in 2002 in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks has virtually met a closure.
Great power competition
Analogies in international relations can be fraught with risks. The coup in Niger occurred precisely when several African heads of state and ministers were attending the second Russia-Africa Summit in Saint Petersburg. Following the French withdrawal, Russia’s private military group Wagner swiftly assumed control of its bases. Moreover, increasingly assertive and aggressive Russian military personnel have reportedly entered Airbase 101 in Niger, where US troops are still stationed. Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the proximity of US and Russian troops may potentially escalate tensions, putting them on a collision course.
In a world where major powers are increasingly vying for influence across critical regions, from Africa to Latin America, and from the Indo-Pacific to Eurasia, the US finds itself competing with two formidable adversaries: Russia and China. This competition is particularly challenging for the US as not only does it occur against the backdrop of increasing cooperation between Russia and China, but also amid the US’s escalating military commitments in Ukraine and the Middle East. These ongoing conflicts have further destabilised the global order. While Russia and China collude to form a coordinated strategy against the West, Washington’s pursuit of leadership often leaves its Western partners trailing or acting independently. Nowhere is this trend more evident than in Africa.
Future course
Africa remains critical for US efforts in the region and Washington will use its coastal presence in countries like Benin, Ghana and Ivory Coast to gather intelligence. The US withdrawal from Niger may not be significant from a tactical perspective as countries have increasingly relied on technology for counterterror efforts but what it means for its reputation as a global leader, particularly in the backdrop of a role-reversal by Russia in Niger and a growing Chinese and Iranian influence in Sahel, is clearer.
Optimistic projections for Niger may seem overly preposterous at present. Currently, the US appears to have only few options: imposing harsh economic sanctions, initiating military action, or a combination of both. However, any of these measures could potentially alienate the Junta further from Western alliances. There remains, however, a third option: dialogue. The transition of Niger to a democratic government and subsequent regional stability will depend on the effectiveness and genuineness intentions on both sides. The stability of Niger presents a test case for America’s Pan-Sahel vision.
About the authors:
- Vivek Mishra is a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
- Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
Source: This article was published at the Observer Research Foundation.