Netanyahu Conned the U.S. Now Biden Needs to Make Tough Decisions on How to End the Gaza War - Israel News - Haaretz.com
American policy in the Middle East has entered the entropy stage. You cannot fault U.S. President Joe Biden or Secretary of State Antony Blinken for genuinely and honestly trying their best – but you cannot sugarcoat the results.
With the ominous specter of no hostage and cease-fire deal being reached between Israel and Hamas, the understanding that there is no war termination mechanism, the realization that consequently there isn't any "postwar Gaza" plan, and with increasing signs of possible escalation between Israel and Hezbollah (and conceivably Iran), the Biden administration is facing an excruciating dilemma: What is to be done?
The Americans tried and tried and tried, but as the old U.S. adage on the Mideast goes: "We can't want it more than the parties themselves."
Hamas wants U.S. guarantees that the war will de facto end. But the Americans cannot provide them since Israel won't commit to that. The United States wants a clear path to postwar Gaza and regional realignment. Israel refuses. So what can the Biden administration do that is not "more of the same"?
After eight months of pursuing and doubling down on what turned out to be a failed policy, and while paying a high political price that may manifest itself in the November 5 election, what are the realistic and implementable policy options President Biden has at his disposal?
An image of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seen on a poster holding him responsible for the security failures of October 7, during a protest in Tel Aviv on Monday.Credit: Marko Djurica/Reuters
Essentially, there are two very uneasy options, and one that is equally uneasy but feasible.
The first is to drastically change course, stand up and deliver a speech that calls Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bluff. Something along the lines of: "I suffered with Israel, I stood by Israel, I will always support Israel. My commitment to Israel is unwavering, I have Israel's back, my Israel bona fides are unassailable. That is not the issue. We all know what a vile, murderous and savage terror organization Hamas is. That too is not the issue. The issue is Israel's long-term security and regional stability. Iran is at the center of an axis of terror, instability and chaos. That includes Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other militias, and is supported by Russia.
- Netanyahu talks a good game against Iranian nukes – and that's it
- If Israel strikes Hezbollah, Iran will join. Then America will get dragged in
- Israel is in flames while Netanyahu polishes a speech for sycophants in Congress
"There is a real possibility to build and consolidate a counter-axis – an axis of stability – with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinians and the United States. That requires a vision supported by bold, daring decisions. In that regard, our alliance with Israel has been strained. These are American interests, and to achieve them I need to set the record straight: Netanyahu has been nothing but a hindrance. A recalcitrant, defiant, dismissive prime minister who only knows how to say no to everything, but never comes up with an original policy.
"He has not come up with any coherent, defined and viable plan for Gaza. I thought he needed time. Apparently, he never intended to. He has derided all advice the United States offered on the military management of the war and humanitarian aid. He insolently ignored U.S. ideas on how we should proceed together – specifically about the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations, including a reconfigured Middle East. He has demonstrated profound ingratitude for the assistance the United States has provided, playing petty politics instead. I suspect all his decisions are subject to his political survival, which includes prolonging a war without clear objectives, and a reluctance to seriously engage in a hostage and cease-fire agreement.
"You know how much I care about Israel and its well-being, which is why it pains me to say that Netanyahu is not acting in good faith as an ally of the United States. Israel is and will remain a staunch ally; unfortunately, I cannot say the same about Mr. Netanyahu. Not about his constitutional coup, backsliding Israel into semi-authoritarianism, nor about the prosecution of the war.
"To this end, we will initiate a UN Security Council resolution on ending the war, effective immediately. If that does not happen, we will reassess our current military aid to Israel."
Mourners carrying the coffin of Hezbollah senior field commander Taleb Abdallah, who was killed by an Israel strike on Tuesday night, during his funeral in Beirut on Wednesday.Credit: Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
Chances of that happening? Zero. Maybe slightly less.
There's a distant possibility of a watered-down version of such a speech being delivered. But that would not be a course-changing policy departure. Such a speech is uncharacteristic of Joe Biden and therefore will not happen.
Second, announce a diplomatic disengagement. Enough is enough. The United States expended enough diplomatic capital and tarnished its reputation, and Biden himself expended more than enough political capital on supporting Israel the way he did. So it's time to cut our losses.
Israel wants to continue a forever war and remain in the Gaza quagmire for years to come? You think you can actually tailor-design a limited war in Lebanon, dangerously unaware that this will inevitably turn into a large-scale confrontation with Hezbollah and possibly also Iran? May the force be with you. There's only so much we can advise, do, warn and implore. As Judges 6:14 states: "Go in this thy might and save Israel from the hand of Midian; have not I sent thee?"
In other words, go do what you want. The United States is not in the equation and is backing off from active involvement.
Chances of that happening? Zero. American interests are involved; Iran may be emboldened, as will Russia and China. The United States remains in the equation because of the regional ramifications and potential escalation of the war. This is not how the Americans conduct foreign policy, so this won't happen – although there are enough people in Washington who like the idea.
And then there is the third option, which contains elements of both the abovementioned approaches.
In it, the United States finalizes the U.S.-Saudi defense pact, adds the Israeli-Palestinian dimension based on the end of the war and an interim international and inter-Arab force in Gaza, includes Saudi and Qatari normalization of relations with Israel, and a loose framework for regional cooperation and a defense alliance under U.S. auspices.
Israeli firefighters working to douse fires following rocket attacks from Hezbollah, near the border with Lebanon on Wednesday.Credit: Avi Ohayon/Reuters
The White House then sends a three-page "discussion paper" for all parties to consider, with an invitation to Washington 10 days thereafter. This is a package deal. You can negotiate the specifics, but there needs to be preliminary acceptance of the basic parameters. Any party that doesn't show up is outed as the outlier.
Chances of that happening? Not high, but not zero. This may be the only creative and viable idea the Americans may be weighing. Anything else is treading the malodorous murky waters of the Middle East.
A recent CIA assessment, revealed last week by CNN, concluded that Netanyahu is likely to defy U.S. pressure to establish a postwar plan for Gaza. The assessment added that the Israeli prime minister likely judges he can get away without defining such a plan.
That it took the United States over eight months of being swindled and conned by a man they know and have studied for over 15 years is nothing short of staggering. The idea that the United States seriously thought it could partner, trust, rely on, rein in and expect different behavior from a man who for years has exercised mendacity and manipulation as his default mode – and exhibits derision toward the United States – is located on a spectrum anywhere between naivete and gullibility, flawed and arrogant assessments, or full and inexcusable diplomatic negligence.
The gap in style, resolve, tenacity and astuteness between how the Biden administration managed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and how it has dealt with the Gaza war is astounding. Granted, the stakes are different, as are the dynamics, the geopolitics, the political circumstances and the character of the actors. Even so, a critical comparison is inescapable: Biden, whose foreign policy legacy could have been his determination, sophistication, endurance and savvy handling of Russia and reincarnating of NATO, may now be remembered for a war in Gaza that exceeded all worst-case expectations.
Palestinian girls carrying a container amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on Wednesday.Credit: Hatem Khaled/Reuters
The CIA assessment reinforces other prevailing sentiments and perceptions of Israel that have formed since October 7: U.S. and Israeli interests diverge too often, particularly on the broader geopolitical configuration of the Middle East. Israel's behavior is inattentive at best, dismissive at worst, to American interests.
That raises a fundamental question that hasn't been debated in decades: Whether Israel is a trusted ally and dependable partner, or an unpredictable and defiant actor whose decisions and calculations are subject to a prime minister's political interests and survival rather than to national security policy.
Netanyahu's deliberate and frequent confrontations with the United States are damaging to its image as a power broker with effective levers of influence on Israel.
Until now, Biden did little about it. The absence of a hostage and cease-fire deal may force him to consider a change in policy. The Americans' best bet would be to affect or hope for indigenous political change in Israel. That is easier said than done.