What may we expect from Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea?
Once again, I am grateful to the international broadcasters who approach me requesting commentary on breaking news, because they nudge me to put on my thinking cap and to try that much harder to make sense of what we know will be developments reshaping our world.
Tonight, it was Iran’s Press TV who knocked, asking for my commentary and for that of a panelist in Seoul on the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea that begins in an hour or two, in the middle of the night Korean time.
The world has gotten a glimpse of what the meetings in Pyongyang will achieve by reading the 4-page article that Putin published in today’s issue of the North Korean daily Nodon Sinmun available on the site kremlin.ru In that he gives a brief overview of the history of bilateral relations from the time of the liberation of Korea from Japanese occupation at the end of WWII to recent days. He speaks of the seventy-years of friendship and collaboration. He particularly thanks North Korea for its assistance to Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
There is nothing specific in the article regarding what may be achieved during the visit other than to consolidate the strategic partnership of the countries, though he does mention developing ‘alternative, mechanisms of trade and settling mutual accounts that are outside the control of the West.’ He also mentions plans to grow two-way tourist travel, cultural, educational, youth and sporting exchanges.
All of those topics, of course, are ignored completely by Western news reports on the visit. They focus exclusively on the expected arms agreements, sniffing out whether they will in some way violate any remaining UN mandated sanctions on North Korea and what threats the military cooperation between these two countries may present for the West.
What is noteworthy in this article is Putin’s delivering the harshest criticism of the United States that I have ever heard from him. The U.S. is denounced for practicing “a global neocolonial dictatorship based on dual standards,” and he goes on to say
Countries which do not agree with such an approach and pursue an independent policy run into ever tougher foreign pressure. The leadership of the USA views any natural and legal aspiration to independence and self-sufficiency as a threat to its domination of the world.
When a position like this forms the basis for developing Russian-North Korean relations, we may expect some very serious agreements to be concluded in the next 48 hours of Putin’s visit. And only a small portion will be divulged to the outside world.
The parts we may hear about will include plans to develop the logistical infrastructure connecting the two countries, which have a common border. There are now rail links but no highways, and these are definitely needed. There may also be some progress on the long-discussed hydrocarbon pipelines across North Korean territory to the Pacific coast to facilitate Russian exports.
It bears mention that Putin is not traveling alone. He is accompanied by a large government delegation including the defense and foreign affairs ministers and all deputy premiers, as well as the governor of the Maritime territory, Russia’s Far Eastern oblast bordering North Korea.
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The most intriguing possibilities of the growing Russian-North Korean strategic partnership will surely remain secret, but let us speculate a bit taking our lead from the latest foreign policy signals that Putin gave during the Plenary Session of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum.
In response to the existential threat that Washington presents to Russia by its never-ending escalation of assistance to Ukraine and brutal sanctions, Putin intends to implement the- policy that what is good for the goose is good for the gander.
If the United States can put nuclear capable rockets right up against the border with Russia, then Russia can position its hypersonic missile carrying frigates and submarines to within easy firing distance of the U.S. mainland as we see from the little Russian naval task force calling upon Havana. If the United States can strong-arm Japan and South Korea to join its containment of Russia and China, then Russia can join with North Korea and China to resist and pose still greater threats to American military assets in the region.
I would not in the least be surprised if there will be secret provisions in any of the forthcoming agreements signed in Pyongyang for Russia to station advanced arms on North Korean territory that it will control.
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When Press TV provides the link to the just completed interview, I will post it here. Perhaps their own web link will not work in your jurisdiction, but expect one diligent reader to come to our rescue with an alternative link.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024