What to expect from the Biden-Trump debate after 4 years?
After four years of fighting, the U.S., which has not been able to break its vicious circle, is again waiting for Biden and Trump to go to the ring. 333 million Americans will be on the screens with the sadness of not being able to find a younger candidate than 81-year-old Biden and 78-year-old Trump. I remember the comments before the first debate in 2020. Everyone from the central media to Twitter was making similar comments. How would sleepy Joe challenge a master of politics like Trump? He couldn't put two words together, he was constantly stuttering, he couldn't even predict where to leave the scene. Trump, who spent every rally in a stand-up stage, would disgrace Biden, who stood in trouble, and prove his superiority to all Americans by talking like a machine gun!
And that's where Biden caught him. He gave a single answer to Trump, who constantly cut the sentences he could barely make;
'Shut up man!'
The American people could not see the light at the end of the tunnel in those days. The Covid-19 pandemic was continuing and it didn't seem to end. Americans were tired of turning on TV in their stuck homes and watching Trump wrestle with members of the media at press conferences. Biden was reminding them of the 'old.' When he gave Biden a shoulder, including American intelligence, the entertainment industry, Hollywood and almost all his famous crew, the citizen did not call him an old machine and gave the game. Remember the days of Covid, there were even those who said the end of civilization would come! What could be worse?
Trump, who talked a lot and was a hona when he lost, went to the office of the "adults", whom the central media could not finish praising. But the next four years didn't make the Americans feel like 'adults' were running at all. The scandals in international issues that led to the decline of the US global hegemony have already been repeatedly hit by Trump in the face of Biden. However, I would like to tell you what is talked about in this debate and what will be the difference between the previous ones.
No words cut
Although the candidates are the same as the four years ago, this time the rules are different. Unlike the history of the US presidential debate, a discussion without an audience will be held for the first time. The microphones of the candidates will be turned off during the time when there is no say. Considering how his involvement in every word made Trump lose in the last election, it would not be an exaggeration to even say that this rule would benefit him.
Let's look at what will be discussed next to the technical details. In this election, Trump's biggest issue was his indisctant cases. In recent months, we learned that the legal red line for the Presidents of the American state is to give a pornstar a share of silence during the election campaign. Commit the crime you want in the Middle East, use the American global power for your individual interest in Ukraine, but do not bribe the porn star, you will suddenly become the first convicted president of the USA.
Anyway...
Biden will wear out Trump a lot from here. Despite having the opposite effect on Trump's audience, the Democratic side hopes that the legal process will remove the unstable from Trump. The cases have not ended yet.
For Trump, the easiest target is Biden's health. It should be said that it will have an important place in the debate, as it also makes fun of a lot at their rallies. But Trump has a lot of material in his hands to criticize Biden. The migrant crisis that exploded after the Democrats took over, the Republican states contradiction with the Federal government in the debate over border security, especially the fentanyl crisis that conservatives frequently mention, the American purchasing power decreases despite the shared growth figures in exaggeration, there is a lot of material to hit Biden in domestic politics. Of course, the main thing that makes Trump a hero in the eyes of conservatives is that he is a knight of cultural wars that started through discussions such as racism and LGBT rights. Even if the subject is a few sentences, it will still come to the fore in the debate.
Trump may not hit Israel
For me, the most crucial point of the discussion will be on Israel. Even at the beginning of 2023, Biden, who had to take a language subcontinuit after each survey, also happened to the Hamas-Israeli disaster. The massacres of the Netanyahu government, which he had fought since the Obama era, had pastorized Biden with progressive leftist groups that he consolidated in the George Floyd protests in 2020. Thus, especially Muslim and progressive groups in key states such as Michigan, North Carolina and Arizona, which determined the fate of the election, began to say 'we will not go to the polls'. This was the doomsday scenario for Biden. According to surveys, Trump is ahead in 7 of the states when it is 7 passes. Although central media organizations made the news that "Biden is angry" after almost every Israeli massacre, the progressive masses know that Biden does not double in his arms support for Israel.
Anger at Biden has become such that Trumpists and leftist groups, who faced the famous campus protests, even started insulting Biden in one voice. What kind of strategy will Trump follow when such a funny scenario has been created now? Its base still largely supports Israel, although not the same as before. How will he hit Biden in this case? If he says, "You don't support Israel enough, what would I give if it were me," maybe the left-wing progressive groups can stand behind Biden again for fear that "there is worse". Trump can criticize Biden by saying "it's a massacre because of you" by trusting the anti-Israel "Christian Nationalist" audience in his own mass. However, this time, there is a possibility that it will anger the Evangelical groups that it has not visited much in recent years. The most logical thing for Trump is not to 'handle' his already struggling opponent about Israel. But Trump doesn't always make the most sense.
The withdrawal of Afghanistan, which turned into a disaster, the loss of the old allure of the Dollar, the Ukrainian support that the Republicans are tired of, will be issues that Trump will not hesitate to hit. Democrats 'What is the plan to end the Ukrainian war?' They always answered the question 'we will support as much as necessary'. However, this response became 'we will support as much as we can' last year. Trump will necessarily wear out Biden over the lack of planned in the Ukraine issue.
Finally, the issue that Trump will not give up with little will be Biden's famous son. Hunter Biden was found guilty like Trump when he said ambivant Ukrainian relations, the Lap-top issue, the way of life that created great public debate. No no, not because his father used the Vice President's authority to put pressure on the Ukrainian state, but because he used drugs and owned weapons. Aren't the red lines of the American state very interesting?
In summary, I am against the comments that 'okay, the election is over' by looking at the polls. Like many, I consider Trump quite advantageous for now. However, there is a longer time for the election. It would not be surprising that the developments to be experienced during this time changed the fate of the election. The reason for this change may be the debate performance, maybe legal developments, maybe a security threat. After all, there are many Americans who clearly see Trump's coming as a national security issue. Some of these Americans also live at the decision-making points of the USA.
The "conservative transformation guide" prepared by the Heritage Foundation for Reagan at the time was prepared for Trump with its new name "Project 2025". With this guide, from Trump's first day in the seat, conservatives will take back the American bureaucracy they believed they had lost. For this, they started to organize for almost a few years. In all states and in the Federal structure, they will appoint decision-makers as conservatives. Saying that they can make even 20 percent of their promises can be enough to neutralize Democratic influence in US institutions. So for Democrats, losing this election would not be to lose the White House like in 2016, but to lose the whole state.
Today, there is great preparation for Trump's return. Even Europe is preparing itself for this. However, from the Pentagon to the US intelligence, I don't think Democrats who are in a strong position within the state will calmly accept the defeat.