7/1/24
The Russia-North Korea marriage of convenience is no bromance
Strategic partnership a rational calculation by leaders keen never to cross their own red lines
Virginie Grzelczyk is the dean of the School of Social Sciences and Humanities at Aston University in the U.K.
The flags, red carpets, balloons, spectators, and the Russian Aurus limousine gifted by Vladimir Putin to Kim Jong Un are now packed away, and the world is left wondering what's next now that Russia and North Korea have signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
But while there might be uncertainty about the future, the path to this renewed relationship -- inked in Pyongyang on June 19 -- was very explicit: the ongoing war in Ukraine has revitalized and transformed the relationship between the two countries, shifting from traditional diplomatic ties to a strategic alliance driven by mutual needs and geopolitical considerations.
Historically, North Korea's place and importance within the international system has been about its geographical position and what it meant to broader entanglements. Its survival was also tied to the support it managed to claim from stronger powers such as the People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union.
But one constant in North Korea's development has always been its relationship with arms, and its slow transformation from a weapons-recipient state in the 1950s to a weapons-exporting country. It is reselling some of its old stock, copying technology, manufacturing its own weapons, and developing and testing nuclear warheads to a level that now guarantees the country a de facto nuclear weapons-state status.
This development did not happen solely within North Korea's borders or in a vacuum: it happened in partnership with other actors who either supplied people, knowledge, parts, weapons and technology to Pyongyang, or who acquired these assets from them.
For example, United Nations Comtrade data and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's figures on arms trade show North Korean missiles being purchased by Syria and Iran over the years. Experts and political leaders knew about those transactions, and North Korea's own economic precarity and uncertainties linked with the death of Kim Jong Il in 2011 meant the country was a state of concern. Even so, negotiations and sanctions were used to manage Pyongyang into a status quo.
Russia itself had limited engagement with North Korea when Kim Jong Un came to power over a decade ago, but he met with Putin in 2019 in Vladivostok. This meeting occurred shortly after the failed Vietnam summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump and signaled a willingness to cooperate. What it lacked was a clear agenda and immediate outcomes.
Things are very different now. As the war in Ukraine prolonged beyond initial expectations, Russia's need for a continuous supply of weapons necessitated additional sources.
Russian trade registers post-2022 indicate an import trend, with North Korea emerging as a significant supplier. On Sept. 12, 2023, Kim Jong Un travelled to Russia to meet with Putin and visited key military and industrial sites. By January this year, White House reports indicated that Russia had begun using short-range missiles supplied by North Korea, highlighting a deepening military cooperation. These underscore the evolving relationship from mere trading partners to what was shaping up to become a strategic alliance of convenience and cooperation -- one that has now been formalized with the June 19 agreement.
The new alliance, like an arranged marriage, is significant in four ways:
Ideological alignment and global powers: The alliance presents an ideological boon for North Korea, enabling it to recalibrate its global alignment. Just days after Russia's military moved into Ukraine, Pyongyang justified Russia's actions, blaming U.S. and Western hegemonic policies for the crisis.
This rhetorical alignment with Russia's "special military operation" further solidified their partnership. Particularly, it allows North Korea to position itself as a counterbalance to Western influence, building on the momentum lost during the stalled dialogue with the U.S. and South Korea in 2018-2019. This realignment not only reinforces North Korea's stance against the West but also strengthens its identity among like-minded states that oppose Western hegemony.
Strategic use of international platforms for political support: The alliance offers North Korea an invaluable political opportunity to leverage Russia's UN membership for strategic advantage. By supporting Russia, which holds veto power in the UN Security Council, Pyongyang aims to secure Moscow's backing against international sanctions. This mutual support is crucial for North Korea as it seeks to continue its development and testing of nuclear weapons and missiles, relying on Russia to thwart punitive measures from the international community.
Economic benefits through arms trade: Economically, the alliance opens new avenues for North Korea to capitalize on its military capabilities. By selling arms to Russia, North Korea not only bolsters its economy but also cements a financially beneficial relationship that helps sustain its military industry. This relationship is not just profitable but also strategically vital, as it ties North Korea's economic interests directly to the conflict dynamics in Eastern Europe.
Labor cooperation and economic remittances: Beyond arms sales, the alliance also facilitates potential cooperation in terms of labor between Russia and North Korea. With historical precedents of North Korean labor used in Russian territories, the current situation could expand these practices, providing Pyongyang with valuable foreign currency through remittances. This not only aids in alleviating some of the economic pressures at home but also strengthens the bonds between the two nations, ensuring ongoing economic interdependence.
This is the situation for now, but this is no love story or "bromance' a la Kim-Trump. It is a rational calculation of two leaders always determined to never cross their own red lines.