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News and Analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics |
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Restricting migration would damage the US economy
Michael A. Clemens (PIIE), Warwick J. McKibbin (PIIE), Jonathan Portes (King's College London) and Adam S. Posen (PIIE)
A recent PIIE event analyzed how restrictions on immigration proposed by former President Trump would affect the US economy, along with lessons on migration from the United Kingdom's experience with Brexit.
KEY TAKEAWAYS- Warwick J. McKibbin found that a massive deportation of unauthorized workers would sharply reduce labor supply in mining, agriculture, services, and manufacturing, and ignite inflation. Real GDP would be reduced by 12 percent if 7.5 million workers were deported and by 2.1 percent if 1.3 million were deported.
- Michael A. Clemens explained how a more sensible solution than mass deportations to curb illegal entries would be to expand opportunities for lawful entry into the United States.
- Jonathan Portes spoke about lessons for the United States from the United Kingdom, where recent UK employment and GDP growth have been primarily driven by immigration, and noted that tighter migration restrictions make it harder to fund and staff public services.