By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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HELLO CHINA WATCHERS. This is Stuart Lau bringing you a special dispatch from Tokyo, where foreign ministers from the Quad — Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. — just wrapped up a meeting amid concerns about Russia’s increasing alignment with China and North Korea. Phelim Kine will write to you from DC on Thursday, before China Watcher goes on summer retreat.
ALLIANCE WITH JAPAN
TRUMP-PROOFING THE ALLIANCE: For Japan, the U.S. election is an existential issue. China’s military and diplomatic pressure over Taiwan, coupled with North Korea’s Russia-backed belligerence, makes it all the more important for Tokyo to keep up a predictable alliance with Washington, whoever the next president is.
Two plus two minus Beijing: On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a “2+2” meeting with their Japanese counterparts, Yōko Kamikawa and Minoru Kihara. Together, they labeled Beijing as the “greatest strategic challenge” facing the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
“The PRC employs political, economic, and military coercion of countries, companies, and civil society, as well as facilitates its military modernization through the diversion of technology to achieve these objectives,” they said in a joint statement, as tensions between Beijing and Taipei remain high.
FROM EX VICE MINISTER: If the U.S. decides to respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Japan would be “automatically involved” in such a military situation, former Japanese Vice Defense Minister Akihisa Nagashima told China Watcher on Monday.
— Under Article 6 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, the U.S. is permitted to use its bases in Japan for the purposes of maintaining peace `and security in the Far East region generally, not just in Japan.
— The Asian Poland: Nagashima went on to compare Japan with Poland, the hub for organizing Western weapons and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine. He expects Japan to do that, despite legal limitations on Tokyo exporting lethal weapons. “If you lose Taiwan, and the PRC governs Taiwan, that were completely destroy the basis of our peace and security of our country,” he said.
— But but but: Nagashima said Taiwanese officials have “very high” expectation about Japanese provision of support for Taiwan in the event of war. “Actually I’m a little concerned about their high expectation,” he said. “We may hesitate to make a decision to be involved openly.”
— Good for tourists, awful for defense planners: The weak performance of the yen may be good news for tourists, but Nagashima said it means that the original defense spending increase drawn up two years ago is already outdated. “We assess [a] 30 percent negative impact on the entire budget,” he said, calling on the government to recalculate the budget immediately.
BACK TO US-JAPAN: There’s some big news on the military structure this week.
“To better meet the challenges of today and tomorrow, the United States will upgrade the U.S. Forces Japan to Joint Force Headquarters with expanded missions and operational responsibilities,” Austin said. “This will be the most significant change to U.S. Forces Japan since its creation.”
Nuclear deterrence: The quartet of U.S. and Japan officials also held a first-of-its-kind separate dialogue on reaffirming America’s commitment to nuclear deterrence for Japan. (For the nuclear-sensitive Japan, they simply call it “extended deterrence.”)
Ménage à trois: Austin also took part in the (again, first ever) U.S.-Japan-South Korea defense ministerial meeting. Pyongyang-Moscow ties were a main concern.
Trump? It’ll be fine: Blinken said the U.S. and Japan “have an alliance that’s … not only endured for decades, it’s gotten stronger. Precisely because of that interest, I think it will — more than I think, I know it will — be sustained, irrespective of the outcome of elections in either of our countries.”
KISHIDA’S HOME FRONT CHALLENGE: Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is also facing an uphill battle to retain his seat. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will have a leadership election in September, and Kishida’s popularity rating is near an historic low. Still, there’s good news for him: There are no heavyweight challengers, yet.
US-CHINA LUNCH IN TOKYO
LUNCH AT LAST: Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. Ambassador to Japan, finally got to sit down with his Chinese counterpart, Wu Jianghao, for a lunch last week. Emanuel recounted this gathering — which came 17 months after Wu started his role — to Stuart shortly afterward.
The long wait was probably not a surprise to Emanuel, who doesn’t shy away from using social media to make controversial remarks on Chinese politics.
The ice-breaking moment came last month, when Wu paid back Emanuel’s courtesy by dropping by at the U.S. embassy for the Independence Day reception, where Emanuel suggested a lunch… (not exactly ‘My Dinner with Andre’ or ‘Breakfast at Tiffany’s’, as he put it on X.)
But if you expect a hot exchange over lunch — or fancy dishes — you’d be disappointed. Food wise, Emanuel treated Wu to a starter of couscous salad, followed by beef sirloin and fruit parfait. Totally lived up to Chinese expectations of Americana.
Politics aside: As the meal went on, Emanuel stayed away from hot potato geostrategy, and focused instead on his time as Chicago mayor. After all, he’d visited China a few times in that capacity, including meetings with the Beijing mayor at the time.
“Rather than going into security issues like the Taiwan Strait or the Philippines, I thought it better to have a more casual conversation,” Emanuel said. “We talked about how I visited Beijing as mayor and similar issues big cities face, and we discussed income inequality which both our countries are facing.”
“We didn’t just read off talking points to each other,” he added, describing the lunch as fruitful and honest.
Confident Wu: The Chinese ambassador turns out to speak quite good English, apart from his well-known impeccable Japanese. He switched occasionally and effortlessly to English to make direct conversations with Emanuel.
See you again after summer: Asked if the lunch went well, Emanuel said: “It was good enough that at the end of the meal, the PRC Ambassador invited me over for dinner to be prepared by his amazing Sichuanese chef.”
EU-CHINA
MELONI AND XI MEET: Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met Chinese President Xi Jinping in a bid to “relaunch” Rome’s relationship with Beijing, in her first visit there since she pulled Italy out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Riding on a tightrope: Electric vehicles are part of an industrial collaboration memorandum that Italy signed with China, Meloni told a group of business leaders in Beijing. EVs and renewable energy, she added, are “sectors where China has already been operating on the technological frontier for some time … and is sharing the new frontiers of knowledge with partners.”
Xi has the same wish: “China is willing to … discuss cooperation in new areas such as electric vehicles and Artificial Intelligence,” Xi told Meloni. “China welcomes more investment from Italian businesses, is willing to import more high-quality Italian products.”
Signaling: The inclusion of EVs as an area of cooperation is potentially a message to Beijing `— and Brussels. Meloni is increasingly portraying herself as a disgruntled player in the European Union, after her political forces were not consulted in the planning for the EU top jobs. That said, the EU strategy more broadly is about trying to get the Chinese to bring their tech to joint ventures in Europe.
Be nice, prego: In his meeting with Meloni, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said: “We hope the Italian side will work with China to provide a more fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese companies doing business in Italy.”
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
RISCH RIPS BIDEN’S CHINA POLICIES: Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, published a report on Monday describing the Biden administration’s China-focused policies as all talk and no action. The administration “has made grand [policy] announcements, but repeatedly failed to implement them…and continues to pursue counterproductive policies that weaken U.S. and allied competitiveness against China,” Risch said in the report.
Risch’s criticism included what he said is a lack of administration effort to curb Chinese government influence in U.S. political lobbying, China’s rising influence in the United Nations system and the lack of a “comprehensive Africa strategy” as examples of shortcomings in the Biden’s approach to China. The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
BLINKEN GETS A WANG YI EARFUL: The readouts from the meeting on Saturday on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Laos between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi offer a jarring study in contrast. The State Department readout clocks-in at a tight 376 words, describes the meeting as “productive” while checking-off the usual points of disagreement —Taiwan, Beijing’s “destabilizing” moves in the South China Sea and China’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The Chinese foreign ministry statement is almost twice as long and aside from a nod to improved military-to-military communications and growing “civil exchanges,” slams the Biden administration with a sharply-worded laundry list of complaints. The Biden administration has “intensified” its “containment and suppression” efforts targeting China powered by a “wrong perception of China” and a “hegemonic logic.” Wang blamed tensions in the South China Sea on the U.S. “stirring up trouble” and accused the U.S. of “blackmail” and “smearing and planting evidence” regarding Beijing’s ties to Moscow.
LAWMAKERS TARGET CHINESE CORPORATE ‘TRADE CRIMES’: A bipartisan group of lawmakers led by House Select Committee on China leaders John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) introduced legislation Friday “dedicated to prosecuting international trade crimes” committed by Chinese firms. The bill will require the Department of Justice to create a specialized task force to probe and prosecute offences including “fraud, duty evasion, and transshipment which benefit the PRC’s non-market economy and severely harm U.S. companies and workers,” the committee said in a statement. The Chinese embassy in Washington pushed back. The bill’s goals “ignore the facts and are irresponsible smears and vilification … the U.S. overstretches the concept of national security on economy and trade, and disrupts normal international trade,” said Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu on Monday.
CHINA TENSIONS PROMPT PENSION FUND DIVESTMENT: A growing number of states are forcing public employee pension funds to divest from China because of hostility toward Beijing and fear that U.S. assets could be frozen if conflict breaks out in the Indo-Pacific. Five states — Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas — have directed state fund administrators to begin the divestment process over the past year. And more are considering doing so — the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China. Phelim has the full story here.