Talleyrand must confess some difficulty with the arcane behavioural science known as ‘game theory’, which has always seemed, well, rather too Talmudic for general comprehension. Thus, the advice of an author in today’s New York Times to the USA to act tough with the Israelis in order to stop them from starting another big war in the Middle East, doesn’t make obvious sense. Why would their behaviour change now? The more sensible option would appear to be the opposite one: give them all the support they want, and more, in public. Encourage and reassure them. But, in private, hang them out to dry. If they want a war with Iran, let them have it. Let them win, if they can. And if they lose, wait until they’re desperate to come to their rescue, and then dictate the terms, as in 1973 when Israel’s enemies caught it off guard and gave as good as they got. After that, the Israelis behaved themselves, at least for a while. Too clever by half? Probably. Talleyrand is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Talleyrand that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless they enable payments. © 2024 Talleyrand |