Was It Worth It? Ten Burning Questions About Israel's Attacks in the Middle East
Israel recently took responsibility for the targeted killings of the heads of Hamas' and Hezbollah's military wings and is assumed to be behind the targeted killing in Tehran of Hamas' political leader. The air force also recently conducted long-distance strikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
These attacks were in response to the killing of 12 children in the Golan Heights by Hezbollah and over 200 Houthi attacks on Israeli shipping and Eilat. The question is to what extent Israel's response – daring and warranted though it undoubtedly was – served its strategic interests.
Has Israel's deterrence against the "Axis of Resistance" been strengthened?
The combination, audacity and sophistication of Israel's strikes shocked the Axis. However, deterrence refers to the ability to influence an adversary's capability, or willingness, to continue a conflict. The Axis' clear determination to respond indicates that the deterrence achieved has been limited.
Moreover, our somewhat fearful hunkering down in anticipation of the response raises painful questions about who is more deterred.
Have the Axis' military capabilities been damaged?
Not really. The targeted killings of Hamas' Mohammed Deif and Hezbollah's Fuad Shukr, as military leaders, may cause Hamas and Hezbollah some temporary disruptions, but likely not more than that. The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is symbolic, devoid of military value, and may provoke a response whose costs outweigh its benefits. The attack on the port of Hodeidah will cause the Houthis some temporary difficulties, but Iran will find alternative routes for smuggling in weapons.
Flames and smoke rise from the site of Israeli air strikes at the port of Hodeidah, Yemen July 21, 2024. REUTERS/StringerCredit: Stringer/Reuters
Will the strikes lead to a change in the Axis' policy?
No. On the contrary, they may increase its determination to fight against Israel. Haniyeh's killing led to his rapid replacement by Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7 massacre, hardly an improvement, and may just further harden the organization's policy, to the extent this is even possible.
Has Israel's image among Arab members of the anti-Iranian regional coalition been strengthened?
To some extent yes, the initiative and daring that characterized Israel's actions made an impression, which is important at this time. However, it is doubtful that a few successful actions can overcome the impact of October 7 and the years of political chaos in Israel that preceded and followed it.
Will the United States adopt a more aggressive stance toward the Axis as a result?
Probably not, although Joe Biden has once again come to Israel's defense and built up U.S. forces in the region. The Americans are almost entirely focused on the elections and have no interest in increased involvement in the region. Indeed, strong public support for Israel might hurt Kamala Harris' prospects. The administration is thus doing its best to prevent escalation. Even in the Red Sea, where the United States has led an international coalition against the Houthis for nine months, it is clearly working to contain the hostilities.
Iranians mourn Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Aug. 1, 2024.Credit: Vahid Salemi/AP Photo
Have we managed to boost the sense of security and pride among Israeli citizens and even the Israel Defense Forces itself?
Probably to some extent, but this is being rapidly undermined by the tense wait for the Axis' response.
Did the attack against the Houthis improve freedom of maritime navigation – Israel's and international?
No, maybe the opposite. Eilat, through which most of Israel's trade with the Far East is conducted, has been closed since October, and attacks on international maritime traffic continue.
Did the targeted killings and attack in Yemen help address the other threats Israel faces?
These attacks are part of Israel's ongoing campaign against the Axis and are not unimportant. However, the planning and execution of such strikes require substantial military and political attention, diverting attention from other threats. The Iranian nuclear program continues apace, but Israeli and American attention has been elsewhere.
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leading the prayer, next to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, over the coffin of late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard, during his funeral procession in Tehran on August 1, 2024.Credit: Photo by IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER'S WEBSITE / AFP
Was the timing of the attacks necessary?
Possibly. Some argue that Israel had no choice but to respond after the killing of the 12 children in the Golan Heights and the 200-plus Houthi attacks, especially after Tel Aviv was hit. There is no doubt that attacks such as these have a particularly severe psychological impact and warrant a response. However, the real question is what actually has changed. We tolerated attacks in the north and from the Houthis for over nine months and the attack on Tel Aviv was relatively limited. One cannot help but suspect that the timing of Israel's attacks was not influenced solely by strategic considerations.
"So, just sit back and take it?"
Israel is undergoing a particularly difficult period and there are no good options. Following October 7, Israel must adopt a more preventive offensive approach, but do so prudently. Given the escalatory risks and absence of better alternatives, especially as we wait to be hit by the Axis, it would have been prudent to await more propitious circumstances, at least regarding the killing of Haniyeh. Against the Houthis, it would have been prudent to continue relying on our defensive systems and the United States, and to deepen cooperation with Arab countries.
Our conclusions are undoubtedly disappointing and do not offer a solution to the growing threat that Israel faces. This is the price we pay for a disastrous government that has brought ruin to nearly everything it has touched. We will have to swallow hard and wait patiently for more suitable circumstances. There is little doubt that the Axis will provide us with abundant opportunities.
Prof. Chuck Freilich, former deputy head of Israel's National Security Council, is a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies and author of the book "Israeli National Security: A New Strategy for an Era of Change." Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a former senior official at the National Security Council, is also a senior fellow at the INSS, a fellow at the Middle East Institute, and a former visiting fellow at Stanford University.