By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hello China Watchers! Our U.S. host Phelim Kine is off for a few weeks on a much-deserved vacation. You may remember our guest host from previous China Watchers: Robin Shepherd, a global fellow at the Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program. He is currently writing a book on democracy, the digital revolution and how to combat authoritarianism at home and abroad.
One programming note: We’ll be off next week (yes, we like our August holidays!) but we’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday Sept. 3.
Over to you, Robin! — Heidi Vogt, national security editor, POLITICO
IT’S ALL THE SAME TO BEIJING: Pick your poison. According to a range of well-informed observers across Asia, that is Beijing’s stance on the outcome of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.
As the Democratic National Convention draws to a close today, the predictable rhetorical sniping between the camps of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has so far offered little of substance to suggest that either would break from what is now one of the least polarized policy agendas in U.S. politics: China is a threat, and it needs to be pushed back.
Tone, rhetoric, and emphasis may differ. But the consensus about China is as solid as anything gets.
“I doubt China looks at either candidate with great enthusiasm,” Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary of the Singapore Foreign Ministry, told China Watcher. “Beijing knows that there is a bipartisan consensus on China and it is not one favorable to them. Any nuance between Harris and Trump on China is likely to make only a marginal difference.”
The Chinese embassy in Washington did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
The apparent lack of a clear preference by Beijing stands in stark contrast to the blatantly pro-Trump view from Moscow, Richard Heydarian, professorial chairholder in geopolitics at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines told your host by phone from Manila. “If you are China, you are really caught between a rock and a hard place and it’s really hard for China to know which is the rock and which is the hard place.” (While Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this year that he favored then-candidate President Joe Biden, U.S. intelligence has indicated that Trump is his preference).
This is perhaps the reason why it is so difficult to get either the Harris or the Trump camp to give detailed explanations as to how their positions on China are substantively different, despite attempts by many, including your host, to elicit them.
Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington DC, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, told China Watcher in a statement that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship “has long received strong bipartisan and cross-administration support.” Though, perhaps with a nod to former President Trump’s recent rhetoric that Taiwan was not paying enough for U.S. military assistance, the office added that “Taiwan will continue to strengthen its self-defense capabilities.”
So, rhetoric aside, if there aren’t any substantial differences, how about we do a bit of trouble making and encourage some? Maybe a bidding war between the two presidential camps on human rights?
“While both Vice President Harris and former President Trump are understandably stressing the PRC’s policy of theft of American technology, intellectual property and unfair trade practices, it is vital to understand that this all comes back to a Chinese Communist Party that disrespects basic rights and ethical behavior across the board,” Dolkun Isa, who became President of the World Uyghur Congress in 2017, told your host.
Emily Lau, a former member of the Hong Kong Legislative Council reminded China Watchers of the last remaining hopes that Hong Kong “will go back to becoming a cosmopolitan city underpinned by the rule of law and respect for human rights.”
It is difficult to get the Harris camp to give detailed explanations on their positions on China. | Chris duMond/Getty Image |
Now back over to the POLITICO team!
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— REPUBLICANS DEBATE TAIWAN: There’s a real debate within Republican policy circles about what Washington should do to respond to aggression from Beijing. On X on Wednesday, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley issued a flurry of posts arguing that the U.S. should enter into a free trade agreement with Taipei and better embrace Taiwan from a security and diplomatic perspective.
But former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, a contender to join a second Trump administration and an influential advocate for reducing U.S. presence in Europe and redirecting resources towards the Indo-Pacific, pushed back, arguing the U.S. needs to “avoid unnecessarily poking Beijing on a “core issue” for them.”
The online exchange comes as Republicans have emphasized that a second Trump presidency would continue U.S. support to Taipei. But support for Taiwan may be more measured and subtle if the Trump administration prioritizes avoiding conflict with China.
Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told China Watcher that “official policy will be unveiled by either President Trump or his campaign, nobody else.”
— A CHINA-FOCUSED NUCLEAR STRATEGY? Beijing is not thrilled with reports that the U.S. national nuclear strategy is aimed at addressing China’s nuclear arsenal buildup. Speaking at a Foreign Ministry press conference on Wednesday, spokesperson Mao Ning said China is “gravely concerned” about the reports, adding that “we have no intention to engage in any form of arms race with other countries.” She also pointed the finger at the U.S., arguing “the U.S. sits on the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world” and “it is the U.S. who is the primary source of nuclear threat and strategic risks in the world.”
Mao’s comments follow a Tuesday story in The New York Times that President Joe Biden approved a new national nuclear strategy that refocuses U.S. policy towards addressing China’s buildup of nuclear warheads.
The completion of the highly-classified document was not publicly advertised by the White House, but officials have alluded to the new strategy and that it aims “to deter Russia, the PRC and North Korea simultaneously.” The Pentagon projects that China’s nuclear arsenal will increase to 1,500 warheads by 2035, alarming U.S. officials who are also worried about Beijing’s increased ties with Moscow.
National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement that “U.S. nuclear policy is updated regularly as part of our efforts to reduce nuclear risks and maintain stable deterrence.” He added: “we review our policies and update when necessary to account for emerging geopolitical conditions.”
— LAWMAKERS’ CHINA PHARMA QUESTIONS: A bipartisan group of lawmakers wants the Biden administration to scrutinize clinical trials conducted in China as part of the U.S. drug approval process. In an Aug. 19 letter to Food and Drug Administration chief Robert Califf, the lawmakers called on Washington’s top food and drug safety watchdog to consider “the historical suppression and medical discrimination against ethnic minorities in” Xinjiang, where hundreds of clinical trials occur every year. They also warn that there are “serious concerns that critical intellectual property is at risk of being transferred to the [People’s Liberation Army] or being co-opted under the People’s Republic of China’s National Security Law.” The letter was led by Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Ark.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), respectively the top Republican and Democrat on the House China Select Committee, and signed by Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) and Neal Dunn (R-Fla.).
— WASHINGTON ISSUES BEIJING WARNING: Washington is reminding Beijing that it will honor its mutual defense treaty obligations with the Philippines if conflict breaks out in the South China Sea following a collision Monday at the Sabina Shoal. State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said that “Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft — including those of its Coast Guard — anywhere in the South China Sea.”
Manila, for its part, is vowing it will seek a “peaceful approach” in the wake of the Monday incident, which saw a Philippines Coast Guard vessel collide with a Chinese Coast Guard boat at the atoll a hundred miles from the Philippines island of Palawan.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— CHINA-EU TRADE WAR ESCALATES: Beijing launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of EU dairy on Wednesday, a day after the European Commission unveiled its final draft duties on Chinese electric vehicles. Beijing’s probe will cover almost all shipments of dairy, affecting “fresh cheese (including whey cheese) and curd, processed cheese (whether or not ground or pulverized), blue cheese and … milk and cream (with a fat content of more than 10 percent by weight) that is not concentrated,” according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce statement. The dairy probe is a less discriminate move than pork or cognac covered in previous Chinese trade measures against EU countries, suggesting China is tired of trying to butter up friendly nations and is willing to milk them instead. Alessandro Ford has the full story.
— EU TOP DIPLOMAT DOUBTS CHINA WILL WAGE WAR: EU’s outgoing top diplomat Josep Borrell cast doubt on Beijing’s intent to wage war on Taiwan, Eddy Wax writes in to report. Speaking at a panel discussion in Spain on Tuesday, Borrell said the consequences for the world for an open conflict “are unimaginable.”
“I do not believe a situation like this is going to happen,” Borrell said, adding: “We always ask for the respect of status quo, avoiding provocation and following the One China policy … We do not recognize the independence of Taiwan.”
Borrell also warned that Europe is headed for a full-blown trade war with China. “This trade war … maybe it’s unavoidable,” he said.
— CHINA VERSUS FRANCE IN NEW CALEDONIA: New Caledonia’s further push for independence risks cementing China’s strategic reach in the South Pacific region at the expense of France. That’s according to a new paper penned by Anne-Marie Brady for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, to be released on Friday. The South Pacific archipelago, which is part of France, has seen independence movements, and violent unrests, despite three failed referendum attempts. “If France were to lose any of its Pacific territories, and access to the vast maritime area they provide … [that] would suit the interests of China and Russia,” Brady writes. Stuart obtained an advance copy of the report. Here’s his write-up.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
— DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: Putin met with Chinese premier Li Qiang on Wednesday, according to the Kremlin. The meeting, part of Li’s trip to Belarus and Russia this week, comes as Russia and China deepen their military and economic partnerships. Russian state media quoted Putin as having said “Our countries have large-scale joint plans, projects in the economic and humanitarian areas, we expect them to last for many years.” Li, for his part, emphasized Beijing’s commitment to cooperation with Russia.
Beijing’s official stance is that the China-Russia relations “goes beyond” Cold War-style alliances. | Pool Photo by Alexey Filippov via Getty Images |
Now, here’s an unusual word: As per the Kremlin readout, the Chinese No. 2 spoke to Putin “as your close friend and ally” in his own words. The Chinese readout didn’t include this part. Beijing’s official stance is that the China-Russia relations “goes beyond” Cold War-style alliances.
Designed in Moscow, made in China: Apart from the traditional field of energy, Russia and China are also looking at further tech and industrial collaborations in aircraft and automobile manufacturing, space and Artificial Intelligence, according to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. “By combining Russia’s rich scientific potential with China’s production and technological capabilities, we can achieve great success,” he told Li.
There have been other recent signs that Moscow is solidifying its alignment with Beijing. Azerbaijan applied on Tuesday to join the BRICS alliance with Russia and China, a major move from the natural gas giant in the Caucasus and once-close U.S. ally. The announcement came a day after Putin visited the former Soviet republic and met with the country’s leader Ilham Aliyev. China has also increased its oil purchases of oil and gas from Azerbaijan and Baku and Beijing upgraded bilateral relations back in July.
— TAIWAN FLAUNTS ITS MUSCLES: The Taiwanese military showed off a battery of surface-to-air missiles on Tuesday, as Taipei seeks to dissuade Beijing from further escalation across the Taiwan Strait. The rare missile test, conducted in a remote corner of the island, saw the Taiwanese fire Patriot missiles and Taiwan-made Sky Bow III missiles into the skies. A ship off the coast also fired RIM-66 standard missiles. “All the missiles that were fired today have smoothly hit their mark and have proven two points – the first being that the training of our soldiers is very solid, the other being that our weapons systems have been verified during this process of live firing missiles,” Defense Ministry spokesperson Sun Li-Fang told reporters.
— CHINA’S MARITIME MOVES: Two of China’s most advanced assault ships were spotted lurking in the waters off of Japan, as Beijing flexes its expanding naval capabilities. The Japanese military said that an amphibious assault ship and a guided missile destroyer were spotted near Okinawa and Mikayo, sailing towards the Pacific Ocean. It comes just a year after China deployed a similar amphibious assault ship through the Osumi Strait, which lies off Japan’s southwest coast, and months after Beijing highlighted the ship’s role in naval exercises in the western Pacific.
— TO LAM IN BEIJING: Hanoi and Beijing signed a litany of agreements this week as part of the country’s most powerful political leader’s debut visit to China since taking power. The trip from Vietnamese Communist Party chief To Lam, who assumed the top job in Hanoi earlier this month following the retirement of his predecessor Nguyễn Phú Trọng, also sought to shore up relations with the Chinese government, with whom it has been at odds in recent years over China’s provocative moves in the South China Sea. “As two ruling Communist parties in the world today, the two parties of China and Vietnam should … continue their traditional friendship … and jointly promote the development of the world’s socialist cause,” said Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “I believe that our road will expand wider as we walk further.”
THREE MINUTES WITH …
Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) is the co-chair of the House Select Committee on China’s new Critical Minerals Policy Working Group. Wittman spoke to China Watcher about the need for the U.S. to respond to China’s moves to dominate the global critical minerals supply chain.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
Why do we need a House working group on critical minerals?
China understands that if they control these source materials, then they will control the ability to impact other countries, both economically and strategically.
They go to countries in Africa and in South America, they come up with these agreements where they either provide financial resources to the countries, knowing that they can’t pay it back, and the collateral is their natural resources, or they come in making vast economic promises about what they’ll do.
They control 100 percent of the world’s source of gallium, 96 percent of the world’s source of germanium and most of the world’s supply of graphite, which goes into advanced materials like graphene [used in batteries, semiconductors and solar cells].
What can the U.S. do about that?
First — do a better job in partnering with [supplier] countries. Second — developing our own resources. We have a richness of resources here that is pretty incredible.
And thirdly, we have to get into the game where China and Russia are getting into the game, and that is on the deep seabed. Those are international spaces. And what’s happening is China and Russia are making massive claims on seabed areas that are rich with minerals. Even if they’re not in there extracting today, if they have claims and control that, that takes those things off the table.
How will the Working Group help to make that happen?
We are going to look at bipartisan pieces of legislation. Even though we’re not a committee that has legislating ability, we do have members on the committee that are on key standing committees, and we’re going to look at ways to put forward some meaningful legislation to really kick these things in gear. I know it’s a long path, but I do think that the outcome needs to be substantive legislation to be able to address this.
HEADLINES
THE WASHINGTON POST: How Chinese investors tried to take over an Australian mining company
FINANCIAL TIMES: China-US tensions erode co-operation on science and tech
BLOOMBERG: Philippines says ex-mayor Alice Guo linked to money laundering seen in Indonesia
THE DIPLOMAT: Understanding the KMT’s evolving foreign policy
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
The War for Chinese Talent in America. | David Zweig and Jon Wilson |
The Book: The War for Chinese Talent in America: The Politics of Technology and Knowledge in Sino-U.S. relations
The Author: David Zweig is professor emeritus of Chinese politics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
One hundred thousand extremely well-educated, former residents of China, holding American PhDs or post-docs, live in America. The Chinese Communist Party, in an over-the-top effort, utilized numerous programs to learn everything they knew.
The extensiveness of this effort was amazing, as Xi Jinping, in 2015, declared these Chinese professionals a “focal point” of the CCP’s ‘united front’ strategy. And while some scientists engaged in illegal technology transfer, the majority of those investigated simply wanted to improve China’s scientific capabilities.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
Under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, America’s National Security Agency accesses 1.8 billion emails a month, most of which originate overseas.If, after scrubbing those emails using keywords, the NSA can assert that some communications are related to U.S. national security, the FBI can investigate and spy on these ethnic Chinese Americans without a court order. Knowing this, many Chinese scientists in the U.S. say they will curtail interactions with China because such communications can trigger investigations, which justified or not, may disrupt, if not destroy, their careers.
In this way, the Department of Justice’s “China Initiative” succeeded in its goal of ending much scientific cooperation across the Pacific.
What do you consider the most serious collateral damage inflicted by the retreat of bilateral scientific collaboration and the outflow of top Chinese science talent from the U.S.?
The stifling of Sino-American joint efforts in cancer research, began under President [Barack] Obama in 2010 and renewed under President Trump in 2015, even though China’s engagement with the U.S. cuts the time used to test new drug therapies. What I call the National Institutes of Health’s “mini-China Initiative” was particularly tough on hundreds of Chinese scholars, most of whom were, at most, guilty of not reporting affiliations with Chinese talent programs.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.