US racing to shield Indo-Pacific bases from China’s missiles.
but China’s AI and machine-learning advancements may foil the plan
US Air Force’s ACE strategy aims to overhaul base defenses but China’s AI and machine-learning advancements may foil the plan
The US is upgrading Indo-Pacific base defenses and building alternative facilities in a bid to stay ahead of China and North Korea’s growing missile threats.
This month, Defense One reported that US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin is pushing for improved base defense capabilities to support the force’s so-called Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy to enhance US military readiness in the Indo-Pacific.
The ACE strategy aims to improve combat power projection and resilience in a global conflict scenario, including vis-à-vis China, by empowering airmen, implementing mission command principles and creating customized force packages.
Resilient communications, pre-positioned equipment, scalable logistics and Joint All-domain Command and Control (JADC2) support the strategy.
The strategy is also designed to enable distributed operations, disrupt adversary decision-making and ensure US forces can operate effectively across multiple domains despite contested environments.
The Defense One report says the strategy requires a significant shift in US Air Force logistics, command structures and operational planning, focusing on adaptability and integration across joint forces.
Defense One mentions that the ACE strategy aims to expand the US Air Force’s operational bases, reducing dependence on a few large airfields, and requires a joint effort with the US Army to develop cost-effective air defense systems for smaller outposts.
According to the report, Allvin emphasized the pressing need for mobility, rapid deployment and modernized tactics such as camouflage, concealment and deception adapted for the theaters of the 21st century.
The Defense One report notes that while specific capabilities are under the US Army’s purview, ongoing discussions ensure that the US Air Force’s requirements will be met.
Defense One notes that the collaboration also addresses non-kinetic threats, including cyberattacks and electronic warfare, highlighting the multifaceted approach needed to safeguard US Pacific bases in an increasingly complex security environment.
US urgency to fortify its Pacific bases with advanced defenses and establish backup facilities is underscored by rising missile threats from China and North Korea.
A June 2023 US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report states that US military bases in the Pacific, particularly those located west of the International Date Line, face significant threats from China and North Korea, both of which possess increasingly advanced missile capabilities.
The CRS report notes China’s development of conventional and nuclear-armed ballistic and hypersonic missiles poses a substantial risk to US forces and infrastructure in the region.
It says that these missiles, coupled with sophisticated intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, enhance China’s ability to target US bases with precision, especially those within the First and Second Island Chains, including key locations in Japan, South Korea and Guam.
It also notes that North Korea continues to expand its missile capabilities, further exacerbating the threat to US forces. US efforts underway to fortify Guam and expand its Pacific base infrastructure are crucial steps against these sophisticated adversarial capabilities.
This month, Defense News reported that the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is gearing up for a pivotal test later this year to deploy an initial defense system designed to shield Guam from air and missile threats.
Defense News says Lieutenant General Heath Collins, MDA’s director, revealed plans to integrate a new radar, the AN/TPY-6, into a comprehensive defense architecture against rising threats from China and North Korea.
The report mentions that the radar’s first panel is en route to Guam for a December flight experiment and that it will track a target launched from a C-17 aircraft, followed by an SM-3 Block IIA interceptor launch.
The Defense News report also says the AN/TPY-6 leverages Alaska’s Long-Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) technology, marking a collaborative effort with the US Army, which took charge of the acquisition and execution plan in 2023.
Defense News says this initiative leverages MDA’s current focus on unifying systems through the Joint Tactical Integrated Fire Control (JTIFC) standard. It notes that a combined command center is also in the works, aiming to consolidate major missile defense command and control systems.
Asia Times reported in August 2023 that the US military plans to implement the Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense (EIAMD) system, comprising a network of surface-to-air interceptors, radars and other components.
The EIAMD will feature a multi-layered architecture including Aegis Ashore, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), Typhon, Patriot and Enduring Shield systems, designed to protect Guam in a 360-degree arc.
This comprehensive defense setup aims to address the challenges posed by advanced ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missile threats. The initiative also includes deploying next-gen infrared seekers for the THAAD, enhancing its sensing and guidance capabilities.
Asia Times reported in June 2022 that the US has embarked on a significant construction project on Tinian, an island in the Northern Mariana Islands, to establish a backup facility for its naval and air operations currently based in Guam.
This development, revealed through satellite images, comes amid growing concerns over Guam’s susceptibility to Chinese or North Korean missile attacks.
The strategic initiative, with an earmarked budget of US$162 million, includes a new aircraft taxiway and parking apron at Tinian International Airport. It is expected to be completed in October 2025.
Defense News reported in April 2024 that the US Air Force had awarded a $409 million contract to Fluor, a Texas-based engineering and construction firm, to develop those planned facilities.
The report says that the project, expected to be completed within five years, aligns with the US Indo-Pacific Command’s drive to strengthen regional deterrence capabilities.
However, Defense One says the undertaking faces challenges due to high costs and bureaucratic hurdles typical of Pacific island projects.
In a July 2024 Proceedings article, Michael Blaser asserts that the US ACE strategy faces significant challenges due to enemy AI and machine learning advancements.
Blaser notes these technologies enable adversaries to rapidly analyze data from space-based sensors, potentially outpacing the US Air Force’s ability to relocate aircraft and thus undermining the ACE strategy.
He notes the ACE strategy assumes the enemy, particularly China, cannot simultaneously disrupt multiple locations with long-range fires.
However, he points out that China’s People’s Liberation Army-Rocket Force (PLA-RF) possesses a vast missile arsenal capable of striking US military installations in the Pacific. Additionally, he says that an AI-assisted kill chain could accelerate the enemy’s targeting process, threatening ACE’s effectiveness.
Blaser recommends that the US Air Force adopt deception techniques such as camouflage, concealment and decoy aircraft to delay enemy targeting and counter these threats.