Macron signals a shift on Western Sahara
Summary: a decision by France over Western Sahara represents a shift and one that has infuriated Algeria.
We thank Francis Ghilès for today’s article. A regular contributor to
Arab Digest, Francis is a specialist on security, energy, and political
trends in North Africa and the Western Mediterranean. He is a senior
associate research fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International
Affairs (CIDOB) and a visiting fellow at King’s College, London. From
1981 to 1995 Francis was the North Africa correspondent for the Financial Times and has written for numerous publications including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Le Monde and El Pais. You can find his most recent Arab Digest podcast “The Maghreb at a moment of opportunity” here.
In a letter to king Mohamed VI of Morocco 30 July President Emmanuel
Macron shifted France’s position on the Western Sahara dispute by saying
his country favoured the Moroccan plan which gives the territory
limited autonomy but keeps it under Moroccan control. France thus
follows Spain’s change of tack which occurred two and a half years ago
when the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, in a private letter to
King Mohammed VI, described Morocco’s 2007 proposal for Sahrawi autonomy
as “the most serious, realistic and credible” basis for resolving the
conflict in a territory it relinquished in 1975. The Spanish move
followed the German government which had described Morocco’s plan as “an
important contribution” to solving what is now a half century old
dispute. The shift in the position of European countries followed the
recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory by
Washington announced on the eve of Christmas 2020, in the dying days of
the Trump administration.
Algeria’s reaction to Macron's move was hardly surprising. The
Algerians have backed the Sahwari independence struggle since Spain's
withdrawal which saw Morocco seize 70% of the territory and the Sahwaris
hanging on to the rest. As happened with Spain in March 2022, Algiers withdrew its ambassador,
this time from Paris. No doubt French companies will be less favoured
than hitherto in the attribution of major contracts, as Spanish ones
were.
These shifts in the position of the US and leading EU countries
suggest Morocco is tightening its grip on Western Sahara. The French
move will be welcome news to King Mohamed VI at a time when the huge
bloodletting in Gaza has made Morocco’s decision, back in 2020, to
normalise with Israel, as a quid pro quo for the recognition of its
sovereignty over Western Sahara, increasingly untenable vis a vis
Moroccan public opinion. Over 80% of Moroccans disapprove of their
country’s normalising its relations with Israel. Such disapproval has in
no way, however, hindered Morocco’s deepening security ties with Israel
which go back to the reign of the king’s father, Hassan II.
That said the real question is whether France’s diplomatic shift
represents a sea change in the evolution of the conflict. After all, the
United Nations process remains based on the principle of
self-determination. As Aboubakr Jamai pointed out in a recent RFI article
“it would have been a meaningful evolution if France championed a UN
Security Council resolution rejecting the Sahrawi people’s right to
self-determination” but that is not the case. He rightly points out that
France’s change of position on the issue is the result of a
cost-benefit analysis mostly related to major economic projects (the
extension of the TGV railway line to Marrakesh etc) and security (it is
better to have good relations with Rabat when terrorists of Moroccan
origin are a threat to you.) Relations between France and Morocco have
been strained in recent years but Morocco remains an attractive
destination for private Western investments, notably French and Spanish.
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