Far Eastern
Economic Forum: perhaps the least covered international event by Western major
media this week
Vladimir
Putin’s state visit to Mongolia at the start of this week drew the attention of
U.S. and European media. The BBC and, I assume, other broadcasters put on
screen video clips of the honor guard reception for the Russian President.
However, nearly all coverage was directed at one very specific aspect of the
visit: that it was Vladimir Putin’s first visit to a member state of the
International Criminal Court (ICC), which had issued a year ago an
international arrest warrant following the Court’s determination of his
responsibility for what Ukrainian authorities called a deportation of Ukrainian
children to children from their homes in occupied Ukraine to the Russian
interior.
I won’t go
into the details of the allegations against Putin other than to say that the
charges were false and defamatory, since the children involved, whether orphans
or otherwise, were left without parental supervision in areas of combat. They
were temporarily moved away for their own safety. The entire proceedings of the
ICC were a textbook case of manipulation and abuse of international organizations
by the United States and could only serve to discredit such institutions and
limit their effectiveness in pursuing justice in other cases that fall within
their remit.
What
happened in Mongolia, which is a member of the ICC and has a judge in its
ranks, is that Ulan Bator refused to execute the arrest warrant and proceeded
to give Mr. Putin a very warm welcome indeed, to the dismay of the United
States which, with France and other allies (see the visit of Emmanuel Macron not
long ago), had in advance applied all possible pressure on the Mongol
leadership, shall we say by the usual extortionate methods, to prevent the
visit of the Russian president.
From the
Russian perspective, Putin’s visit to Ulan Bator was timed to coincide with the
September 2-3 observance of the end of WWII in the Pacific, thereby providing an
opportunity to recall the time when Mongolia and Soviet Russia worked very
closely together to combat Japanese occupiers of nearby Chinese Manchuria. The
visit featured wide-ranging discussions of possible new joint Russian-Mongolian
infrastructure projects, including the long-delayed construction of a Power of
Siberia-2 gas pipeline across Mongolia to facilitate deliveries of natural gas
to China’s western regions.
For Mongolia,
Putin’s visit provided an opportunity to assert its sovereignty and
independence of Western meddling after a long period as a would-be American
protectorate that began in the early 1990s when the Russian Federation slashed ties
with Soviet dependencies like Mongolia and Cuba for which it no longer had the personnel
or money to continue. Indeed, today Mongolia is both economically and
diplomatically walking a tightrope between East and West very much in the same way
as India. Commercial ties with Russia in particular are going strong, inasmuch
as Russia provides one third or more of the country’s refined oil and other
hydrocarbon imports.
None of
these consequential elements of Mr. Putin’s visit to Mongolia were reflected in
Western media accounts. No matter! What followed, when the Russian president proceeded
on his way to the final destination of his trip, Vladivostok for the just
opening Far Eastern Economic Forum was a still more complete news blackout by
the West.
Well, not
quite complete. I understand that the
online editions of several British newspapers did serve up to their subscribers
live coverage of Mr. Putin’s keynote address to the plenary session of the Forum
yesterday.
Nonetheless,
you likely have very little inkling of what has been going on in Vladivostok,
and in the brief remarks that follow I will try to fill in the gaps.
*****
This was
the 9th edition of the Far Eastern Forum in Vladivostok which is a
counterpoint to the annual St Petersburg International Economic Forum that
takes place in the spring. As in Petersburg, the Vladivostok event brings in commercial
and diplomatic missions from all over the world and it also has very important foreign
statesmen who appear on the dais with Vladimir Putin during the plenary
session. They deliver speeches and participate in a Q&A. This time there
were more than 70 countries represented at the Forum and the VIP foreign guests
were the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim, and the Chinese Vice President,
Han Zheng.
The
presence of Mr. Ibrahim was particularly relevant and also shocking for the
Collective West, which is one reason you did not see his face on the BBC this
week. Just a reminder that Britain was the former colonial overlord in what is
now Malaysia.
Malaysia has formally requested to join BRICS
and Russia will be the sponsor of their candidacy. They will participate in the
BRICS summit that will be held in Kazan on 26 October and their admittance to
the club as full members is a foregone conclusion.
Malaysia
will be the first member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
to join BRICS, but we may well expect others to join soon after, starting
perhaps with Vietnam. Their joining BRICS represents a significant departure
from Malaysia’s hitherto close ties with the United States. There may be many
explanations for this change of direction, but one standout is the country’s
religious orientation. Malaysia’s population of 35 million is predominantly
Muslim and they have watched with horror the Israeli genocide in Gaza which is
enabled by Washington.
Russian
commentators on Mr. Ibrahim’s address to the plenary session last night
directed attention to his remarks on what sets Russia apart from other nations.
Yes, he said, it is a major military power and economic power, but it is also a
country with significant Soft Power attractiveness thanks to its cultural
heritage. Ibrahim said that he was first drawn to the power of Russian
literature through the books of Dostoevsky and Tolstoy, but then moved on to
Chekhov and even the poetess Akhmatova. No
doubt he said this with sincerity, but if he had been looking for a key to win
over the sympathies of Russians for his country apart from the fine beaches
which each year bring in 150,000 Russian tourists, then he could do no better
than by highlighting Russian culture. We do not yet know what commercial deals
were signed off between Malaysian and Russian companies during the Forum, but
surely there were some successes at the level of mutual investments in
manufacturing and software among other domains.
PRC Vice
President Han Zheng was smiling and satisfied with the proceedings even when
the moderator posed a rather provocative question about why the Chinese
government seemed to be holding back Chinese companies from setting up shop
across the border in Russia. Mr. Putin jumped in to soften the blow, explaining
that Russia is doing everything possible now to make such moves more attractive
to their prospective Chinese partners.
As regards
China, Orientalist experts appearing on the Russian talk shows in the evening
explained that there are ever closer relations being established between the
northeast region of China and the Russian Far East region. Indeed, while the
South of China is oriented to doing business with the United States and Europe,
the Northeast is integrating with Russia. To add momentum to this trend, a
number of the key infrastructure projects that President Putin mentioned in his
address to the plenary session are precisely directed at improving logistics of
trade across the Amur River, meaning additional bridges and improved customs
posts so that waiting time for trucks can be reduced to 10 minutes or less.
What little
reporting on Putin’s remarks at the Forum that we see in Western media have
cherry picked his answers to some questions following his speech, so as to
produce the impression that he spoke about the Ukraine conflict and was in one
way or another threatening the West with nuclear attack. Nothing could be
further from the truth.
This year’s
Economic Forum was dedicated to the theme of the Far Eastern region in
2030. Accordingly, Mr. Putin’s speech dealt
exclusively with Russia’s plans for accelerated development of the region
through two parallel sets of initiatives: building infrastructure to attract
companies to the region and ensuring living conditions for the local population
that are highly attractive. The idea is to offer career growth to Russians
under the age of 35 who will settle there for a good long time, raise families
and provide a pool of skilled manpower to drive economic expansion that far
outstrips that of other Russian regions.
The
infrastructure investments by the government will focus first on logistics and
transportation. This means doubling or more the freight capacity of the
mainline railroads serving the region, namely the Trans-Siberian and the
Baikal-Amur railway (BAM in Russian). In the time period under discussion,
Russia will complete construction of a major highway extending from Petersburg
in the West to Vladivostok in the East. It means expanding airports, expanding
seaports and the like in the Maritime region and in the adjacent Far Eastern
regions as far west as Eastern Siberia and as far north as the arctic coast
where further investment is needed to accommodate growing use of the Northern
Sea Route and to serve the centers of extractive industries. Some of the
regional infrastructure will be done in joint government-private business ventures,
with which Russia has many years of fruitful experience now.
With regard
to incentives to encourage migration to the Far East, the existing preferential
2% mortgage rate for settlers under the age of 35, for veterans of the SMO, for
doctors, school teachers and other professions in great demand will be continued
and expanded to take in still more categories of applicants. New housing developments
will be endowed with medical clinics, high quality schools and other essentials
of comfortable family life. The days of dormitory accommodations for workers
attached to factories built in vast empty lands typical of the Soviet days are
recognized as having inhibited long term settlement of the region, and will not
be repeated.
Particular
efforts will be made to improve higher education with establishment of additional
university centers and expansion of existing ones, as in Vladivostok itself.
Where possible, commercial research centers will be attached to these universities.
In fact,
the guiding principles of the master plan for the period to 2030 have been in
place for nearly a decade, though they were financed much more modestly.
Nonetheless, they achieved results that Vladimir Putin could read off to the
audience: namely positive demographic trends, especially as regards young
settlers aged 20-22 and the higher rate of economic growth. As Putin said in the
conclusion of his speech, the Far Eastern region is the leader in Russia’s
outreach to the world, being situated among the world’s most dynamic countries
that outpace the West by more than 2:1.
To be sure,
Vladimir Putin allowed himself to be drawn into discussion of world events
outside the framework of the Forum. It is in this context that he spoke of the
dire situation of the Ukrainian military in the Donbas, who have exhausted
their human reserves and lost their armor. He also allowed himself to reply to
a question about whom Russia favors as winner of the November presidential
elections in the USA. With a wry smile, he acknowledged that Russia’s choice is
Kamala because of her ‘contagious smile.’ He said he does not believe that a person
with such a smile could be truly hostile.
To this, I will quote from Verdi’s Rigoletto: ‘le prince s’amuse.’
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024