JD Vance’s VP selection is a victory for the New Right
Whether J.D. Vance is a good conservative is a separate question from whether he’s a good senator. Whether he’s a good senator is separate from whether he’s a good vice presidential candidate, which is separate from whether he’s a good man. Untangling this knot won’t come easily to pundits and powerbrokers, eager to find a coherent narrative. One takeaway is obvious: this is a victory for the “New Right,” a movement that sprung up after Trump’s 2016 victory to add intellectual and political meat to Trump’s populist bones.
Just last week, Vance spoke at the annual National Conservative Conference. “NatCon,” as it’s known, is both mainstream and edgy in the sense that what was once an edgy movement in 2016 is slipping into the mainstream today. Vance’s Senate office is staffed not with old hands from the GOP machine, but young intellectuals who rarely miss an event like NatCon and harbour as much disdain for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell as they do for Biden.
As to the question of whether Vance is a good conservative, there really is no middle ground. For proponents of the New Right, he’s an excellent standard bearer. For others, he is an opportunistic statist. But there’s no doubting his impressive rise: Vance, who was born in Ohio to a family with Kentucky roots, was raised by his grandparents amid divorce and drug addiction before enlisting in the Marines during the Iraq War, only to then found his way to Yale Law School and Silicon Valley. His best-selling book, Hillbilly Elegy, mirrors the journey towards Trump that other conservatives also experienced, through essays like Claremont’s “Flight 93 Election,” and events like the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation.
Elected just two years ago, Vance’s freshman term has been a busy one. He led the charge against the GOP’s support for US aid to Ukraine, backed Biden’s controversial Federal Trade Commission chairwoman amid robust attacks from Wall Street, and championed bipartisan legislation to crack down on the rail industry in the wake of the East Palestine derailment in his home state.
What Trump will get from Vance is an expert media critic, a loyal surrogate, and an intellectual heavyweight. Furthermore, he is a man better than almost anyone at connecting with Trump voters on their own terms and in their own language. But it’s also possible that his selection may turn off independents, even while resonating with disenchanted Democrats.
Democrats feel like the pick is a boost to Biden — or anyone who heads the ticket in his stead — given that Vance is easily tied to “Project 2025” and the broader Maga cinematic universe. As such, one longtime GOP Senate staffer texted UnHerd on Monday to say Vance’s selection “Puts establishment Washington on notice, from the CIA to K Street.”
Another senior GOP strategist saw it differently — or perhaps their points aren’t mutually exclusive at all. “Vance’s last election nearly cost Republicans a US Senate seat and wasted millions of GOP fundraising dollars,” they argued. “No evidence Vance helps win over anyone, but maybe Trump is right when he says the VP doesn’t matter.”
The honest prediction is that it’s hard to say how this will pan out. Donald Trump was nearly assassinated some 48 hours ago. The sitting president is so feeble that his party’s donors are organising to hold back money. Celebrities and elected officials are asking him to step down from the election. Some are even asking him to step down from office.
Perhaps what Trump’s selection actually tells us today is something psychological. Having evaded a bullet in rural Pennsylvania and leaving with his head held high, Trump moved quickly to select a running mate with an emphasis on the mate, politically and intellectually. J.D. Vance knows his fellow travellers would never forgive him for betraying Trump. And he knows they’re his ticket to the top, whether you think that’s opportunistic or sincere.
I find it curious that Vance isn’t more popular. If anyone high up the political class understands the concerns of the working class, of the people who aren’t rich men north of Richmond, it would surely be him.