Ukraine SitRep: End Of The Kursk Incursion - Long Range Missiles - Ending The War
September 11, 2024
The Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk oblast is coming to an end.
The Ukrainian command had sent its best troops and equipment into the area. It had even pushed its last motorized reserves into the operation. Last week it reinforced the contingent. But four weeks of steady Russian bombing and artillery attacks have taken their toll.
Whatever the aim of the incursion was has not been achieved. It created a short sugar-high in Ukrainian morale but that has already dissipated.
The price was high. Half of the troops and material invested in the incursion are now gone.
Russia seems to believe that there is not much more for it to gain from this trap and started to shut it down. Yesterday a fast attack by Russian Marines and paratroopers cleared ten towns and hamlets of Ukrainian forces. Today at least three additional towns were liberated.
Most of the tanks and armored fighting vehicles the Ukrainians had brought to the fight are gone. They will have to retreat in whatever vehicle they may find. This while being under steady bombardment. In two or three weeks the Ukrainians who survive will likely be back inside of their borders.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is in Kiev today. He will likely inform the Ukrainians that they will now be allowed to use U.S. weapons, especially longer range missiles, against targets in Russia.
There are two questions:
- How many U.S. missiles with longer reach does Ukraine still have?
- How many military targets are there left in Russia that have not yet been evacuated or have not received additional protection?
I believe that both of those numbers are low.
There was a fight within the Biden administration about the issues. The Pentagon was reportedly against allowing Ukraine to do such. The generals know what Russia can do and fear that it will retaliate. The warmongers in the State Department though seem to have won the discussion.
But it is the Pentagon that will, or will not, carry out any resupply. The Ukrainians wont get any additional missiles if the generals are determined to block those.
The Wall Street Journal reports about pressure on Ukraine to think of an endgame:
Some European diplomats say Ukraine needs to be more realistic in its wartime aims. That could help Western officials advocate to their respective voters the need to funnel arms and aid to the country.
...
Senior European officials say Kyiv has been told that a full Ukrainian victory would require the West to provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of support, something neither Washington nor Europe can realistically do.
Zelenski will have to present a Plan B, something that is more realistic than his current uncompromising stand on negotiations. For any ceasefire or peace Ukraine will have to give up on land, on quite a lot of it, and will have to fulfill additional conditions.
Should Zelenski be unable to come to such a solution someone else will be found to take up his role.
Posted by b on September 11, 2024 at 16:43 UTC | Permalink