China to step up counteractions if Manila keeps provocation: expert
PCG’s remarks on ship’s withdrawal from Xianbin Jiao ‘political gesture’
By GT staff reporters Published: Sep 18, 2024 12:30 AM
On
August 26, 2024, an officer from China Coast Guard monitors Philippine
Coast Guard ship 4411 which ilegally intruded into waters near China's
Xianbin Jiao. Photo: China Coast Guard
The
Philippines insisted on Monday that it had not given up China's Xianbin
Jiao, two days after the Philippine Coast Guard ship MRRV-9701 left the
lagoon of Xianbin Jiao (also known as Xianbin Reef) in the South China
Sea.
Chinese
experts described the Philippines' latest remarks as a political
posture to "save face," and that it signals Manila is likely to continue
making provocations in the South China Sea. Yet they warned that as
long as the Philippines insists on making infringing provocations in the
region, China's countermeasures will only become stricter and the
Philippines will not gain any advantages.
A
China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesperson confirmed on Sunday that the
Philippine Coast Guard ship MRRV-9701, which had been illegally anchored
in the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao in the South China Sea since April 17,
left around 2 pm on Saturday.
Based
on what the Global Time has learned, the withdrawal of ship 9701 from
China's Xianbin Jiao, where it had illegally anchored for five months,
occurred three days after the meeting between the heads of the
China-Philippines Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China
Sea on September 11. However, the Philippines did not notify China in
advance of the withdrawal. The departure signifies the failure of this
round of Philippine provocations and represents a phased step toward
peace and stability in the South China Sea.
"We
have not lost anything. We did not abandon anything," Philippine Coast
Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela told a news conference Monday,
per AFP.
Tarriela
on Monday maintained that the withdrawal from Xiaobin Jiao was "not a
defeat." He said it would be "impossible" for China to totally stop the
Philippines from sending its ships around the reef.
The
remarks of Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson can be seen as a
political gesture for Manila to "save face," although on another level,
they reveal that the Philippines will continue making provocations in
the South China Sea, said Ding Duo, a deputy director of the Institute
of Maritime Law and Policy at the China Institute for South China Sea
Studies.
Philippine
Coast Guard spokesperson Tarriela told GMA Integrated News' Unang
Balita in an interview on Monday that there are other Philippine Coast
Guard vessels that the country intends to deploy at Xianbin Jiao and
that is the plan of the Philippines' national government.
Asked when these ships will be deployed, Tarriela said it will not take that long.
Chinese
experts said that if Manila were to send another ship to Xianbin Jiao,
it would only signal the Philippines' determination to act as a
provocateur in the region. They warned that China's countermeasures in
response to the Philippines' provocations will only escalate, and that
Manila's attempts to illegally anchor at Xianbin Jiao could lead to
self-inflicted harm.
Regardless
of the Philippines' actions, China's policy in dealing with
provocations in the South China Sea prioritizes stability, said Ding,
warning that as long as the Philippines insists on making provocations,
China's countermeasures will only become stricter, and the Philippines
will not gain any advantages.
Manila
has been amplifying issues related to the South China Sea in hopes of
gaining political, diplomatic and international public opinion benefits.
However, as China's countermeasures step up, experts suggest that the
Philippines now finds itself in an increasingly passive position, having
gained little in return.
US' lip serviceThe
US said on Monday that it continued to support its ally Manila, while
criticizing the "dangerous ways" Beijing tries to enforce its claim.
"It
is up to the Philippines to decide how they operate their vessels in
areas where it enjoys the freedom of navigation in the high seas under
international law," US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller
said, AFP reported.
Philippine
Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. said in an interview on CBS News'
60 Minutes which aired on Sunday that he expects "the US to intervene"
if the Chinese tried to remove the BRP Sierra Madre from Ren'ai Jiao.
The
withdrawal of ship 9701 from China's Xianbin Jiao has highlighted the
limited support the Philippines receives from the US, said Ding, noting
that an increasing number of people in the Philippines are coming to
realize that what is often described as US support is, in fact, little
more than "lip service." Washington's tendency to offer "empty promises"
is becoming increasingly evident.
Chen
Xidi, a research fellow at the China Institute for Marine Affairs of
the Ministry of Natural Resources said that the "Philippines should not
harbor any illusions, nor is there any need to return or test China's
redline by other means," and that the withdrawal of ship 9701 and its
personnel from Xianbin Jiao should mark the beginning of the Philippines
returning to the right track on the South China Sea dispute, rather
than a mere "interlude." This is not only the shared vision of China and
other countries that genuinely wish to build the South China Sea into a
region of peace and cooperation, but also in the best interest of the
Philippines.
Ding
noted that China has demonstrated considerable patience, reflecting a
responsible approach in managing the withdrawal of ship 9701. This case
illustrates that whether viewed through the lens of safeguarding
territorial sovereignty, maintaining regional stability or upholding the
Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, China's
"toolbox" for addressing regional disputes is becoming increasingly
diverse.
The
experts also noted that China possesses the capability to respond
effectively to any potential provocative actions from the US and the
Philippines.