Hezbollah has had its worst week in its 4 decades-long history. Two days of cyber-attacks (pagers and walkie-talkies) killed at least 37 people while sending thousands more to the hospital. The explosions were followed by a massive bombing campaign of southern Lebanon which included a direct hit on a building in South Beirut where the top leaders in Hezbollah’s elite unit, the Radwan force, were located. There were no survivors.
So, in a matter of a few days, Hezbollah has seen its command structure severely degraded, its communications network eviscerated, and many of its most important leaders killed or wounded. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged that the Israeli attack was a “major blow”, but that may be a gross understatement. The fact is, the militia has suffered an unprecedented catastrophe that has severely undermined its military capability. Without reliable communications and competent leadership, it will be nearly impossible for Hezbollah to fend off an Israeli offensive.
The situation is dire and Israel knows it. They smell blood in the water. Unverified reports from Israeli Army Radio say:
“Netanyahu calls for an emergency meeting in an hour, a number of ministers and security officials have been invited to attend the security discussion. Israel is preparing for an immediate escalation.”
The report may or may not be true, but it makes sense that Israel would attempt to launch an offensive in order to probe Hezbollah’s ability to respond. If the militia is temporarily blinded due to its communications and leadership problems, Israel will want to take advantage of that.
So, while we may not know all the relevant details just yet, the chances of a major escalation in the next few days seem to be extremely high. That doesn’t mean that Israel will attempt to capture and hold all the territory between the northern border and the Litani River, but it does suggest that the IDF might apply its ruinous Gaza strategy to Lebanon, perhaps even to Beirut. Netanyahu and his generals could decide that—while occupation can be costly—destroying the capital city along with its critical infrastructure, could erode Hezbollah’s military capability for a decade or more.
With Hezbollah out of the way, Israel would be free to return to its ethnic cleansing project in Gaza and the West Bank without the threat of interference. More importantly, Israel will have eliminated Iran’s most powerful proxy in the region causing a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Toppling Hezbollah is a crucial steppingstone towards regional hegemony, Israel’s ultimate strategic objective.
So what takes place in the next few weeks could be of critical importance, and I’d be very surprised if leaders in Tehran and Moscow are not preparing their own emergency response. If Iran does not do something to support Hezbollah in its hour of need, it will never be a trusted ally again. (and everyone will know that the “axis of resistance” was a meaningless slogan.)
How Iran might respond is anyone’s guess; it could be anything from the provision of state of the art hypersonic missiles to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. But whatever choice they make, it should be done quickly. If Hezbollah is as hobbled as some analysts suggest, time is of the essence.
And that same message should be delivered to Moscow which has been Israel’s biggest critic at the Security Council. Naturally, Putin is not going to provide offensive weapons to Hezbollah, but with guarantees that Russian weaponry and missiles would only be used in defense of Lebanon, a deal might be possible. In any event, Putin put his neck-on-the-line in Syria to prevent another gruesome scenario like Iraq. We can only hope that he will do the same for Lebanon.
No one wants to see the Gazafication of Lebanon. No one outside of Tel Aviv, that is.