Netanyahu and Nasrallah
Summary: the killing of Hassan Nasrallah was a bold tactical
victory for Israel but one that begs the question what is the strategy
behind it and where is Benjamin Netanyahu taking us?
The assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has
delivered a huge blow to the organisation, one that follows the
successful pager and walkie-talkie attacks
two weeks ago that left 14 dead and more than 3000 wounded. Many of the
wounded were Hezbollah operatives and cadres but many too were
civilians, among them children and health service workers. Those who
survive have suffered catastrophic injuries blinded and with severe
facial wounds and hands with fingers blown off.
The infiltration of Hezbollah’s communication systems was so complete that it was only a matter of time before the Israelis located Nasrallah
and killed him. The timing was in itself a statement by the Israeli PM
Benjamin Netanyahu that nothing his friends and allies could say would
stop him from the next step in his war to destroy Hamas and eradicate
Hezbollah.
The prime minister was in New York at the UN General Assembly to deliver his message
that there would be no ceasefire and no let up in the war when he gave
the order to take out Nasrallah. His greatest ally America was not
informed nor was the UK.
Netanyahu was saying again to Washington, London and all his Western
backers and weapons suppliers that their entreaties were to be ignored,
if not treated with disdain or outright contempt.
While it is clear that the IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad have scored great
tactical victories over a powerful and well-armed enemy what is the
strategy at play here? Will the IDF follow up with a land invasion into
the south of Lebanon in a bid not simply to drive Hezbollah north of the
Litani River but to utterly and completely destroy them? To do that the
Israelis would need to seize control of all of Lebanon and most
particularly lay siege to and then militarily secure Beirut.
To the first task that of driving Hezbollah north and creating a DMZ
in order to allow for the return of the more than 60000 Israelis who
fled from Hezbollah rocket attacks after the 7 October Hamas assault,
that in itself will be a daunting military task. In the rugged terrain
of the south Hezbollah is well dug in with tunnel systems built into
mountains, rather like Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. And like the jihadists
there Hezbollah can use terrain to their advantage in a guerrilla war.
The IDF will prevail but with casualties in all likelihood far higher
than those it has already sustained in the Gaza war.
But if Netanyahu is serious about fully eradicating Hezbollah he will
have to order the IDF to drive north. He will need to subdue the
southern suburbs of the capital Beirut where Hezbollah is entrenched.
That will necessitate urban warfare of the sort in Gaza the IDF has
shown a ruthless capability at excelling at by targeting the homes of
civilians, their schools, medical facilities, sewage, water and
electricity infrastructure. The IDF will take casualties but of course
civilian casualties will be on a scale that will run far higher than the
already more than 40000 killed in Gaza. And this in a country that is
on its knees economically, politically and with a population
traumatised, terrified and with its health and social welfare systems
already in tatters.
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