In U.S. Election, Israel Might Be the Ultimate October Surprise
For the first time, there's a real chance that Israel may help sway the race. Election Day is 34 days away. Undoubtedly, many more surprises in store, and none of them are likely to be pleasant
Pro-Israel supporters demonstrate in Union Park before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, on Monday.Credit: AFP
WASHINGTON – During the 1980 U.S. presidential election, President Jimmy Carter's reelection bid was tanking largely due to the Iran hostage crisis.
Trailing Republican challenger Ronald Reagan, Carter was banking on a last-minute maneuver aimed at freeing the 52 U.S. diplomats and citizens abducted at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran 11 months earlier.
While the rescue plan failed, Carter's efforts weeks before Election Day established a tradition in nearly every presidential election: anticipation of an "October surprise."
In the 44 years since, various events in the final five weeks have been forecast as potential game changers – with varying degrees of accuracy.
But for the first time, there's a real chance that Israel may help sway the race. For nearly 365 days, Israel's defenders and critics alike have predicted that the October 7 attack and the Gaza war will elevate Israel to the forefront of voters' concerns.
In reality, however, polling has shown that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a low-tier issue for many voters, and whatever difference it makes will be on the margins with voters in swing states.
That said, Israel's rapidly intensifying conflict with Hezbollah – leading to its ground invasion into Lebanon and Iran's historic ballistic missile attack – have brought the Middle East to the forefront of national attention.
This was made abundantly clear in Tuesday's vice presidential debate, which opened with a question on whether Tim Walz or JD Vance would back a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran.
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who failed to comment on Israel's killing of Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah, quickly used the Iranian attack as political hay against Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
Harris, meanwhile, was put in the unenviable position of either coming out strong against a regional war (and giving her hawkish critics ammunition against her pro-Israel bona fides), or advocating for Israel's actions and further alienating the already disillusioned Arab and progressive voters in key swing states.
If the Middle East descends into an all-out regional war that embroils U.S. forces – while sending oil prices higher and battering the U.S. economy – this would be yet another hurdle for Harris to clear at a time when her campaign is trying to frame the election around domestic issues.
While U.S. officials have tended to be cautiously supportive of Israel's actions against Hezbollah (not to mention the Iranian attacks effectively reducing any nuance to a binary), some U.S. officials have privately posited that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping that recent events can buoy Trump back to the White House.
This theory was echoed by former Rep. John Yarmuth, a Kentucky Democrat who spent 16 years in Congress. "I can't shake the idea that Netanyahu instigated the Lebanese offensive to create instability in the region and help Trump's campaign," he wrote on X. "U.S. leaders tried to stop him, but clearly we are only a fair-weather ally to Bibi."
Election Day is 34 days away. Undoubtedly, many more surprises in store, and none of them are likely to be pleasant.