The Iranian retaliation against Israel followed a week of political ploy and military subterfuge. On the political level, Iran’s newly elected reformist president extended conciliatory gestures at the UN General Assembly, while the Supreme Leader issued somber statements of resignation in what seemed to be an acceptance of fate.
On the military front, U.S. intelligence appears to have intercepted communication along with surveilling satellite information on October 1st, indicating Iran’s response was imminent. Yet, and despite the advanced notice, the Israeli and American led missile defense system, stationed in the advanced Israeli buffer zone of Jordan and American bases in Iraq, failed to stop a significant number of missiles from reaching their targets.
In order to bypass the only foreign American taxpayer-funded air defense system, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) must have utilized military tactics inspired by Sun Tzu’s The Art of War to outwit the observing eyes and create confusion. It appears the IRGC may have conducted misleading maneuvers including the readying of old generation liquid-fueled ballistic missiles for launch. These older, liquid-fueled missiles, which take longer to fuel and deploy, may have been deliberately readied in plain sight, while the faster, more advanced solid-fuel rockets were secretly stationed in underground bunkers, poised for a surprise launch.
Based on the synchronized delivery of missiles to the intended military targets, Iran may have initially fired the older Shihab family missiles to reinforce the false assessment of the monitoring satellites. Thus, creating confusion when they were followed by the newer, supersonic Fatah-1 rockets. The launching of different types of missiles would make it nearly impossible for the defense system to quickly calculate the trajectories of multiple objects flying at different altitudes, some within and others outside the Earth’s atmosphere, and at varying speeds (ranging from Mach 5 to Mach 15). As a result, many missiles evaded interception, with satellite photos showing at one site, Nevatim air base, at least 20 missiles reached their target.
Iran’s measured retaliation last April, following Israel’s raid on its consular offices in Damascus, was merely a warning, meant to demonstrate the capabilities of the IRGC. However, Netanyahu misinterpreted the message, viewing the use of slow-moving drones, outdated missiles, and the advance warning as signs of weakness. This misjudgment, combined with an ineffective American president, fed Netanyahu’s hubris, leading him to believe he could continue to act with impunity.
Before and after Israel’s assassination of Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh, the Biden administration used the Qatari prime minister as an emissary to mediate with Iran not to retaliate, arguing that doing so could jeopardize a potential ceasefire in Gaza. The lack of the immediate Iranian retaliation as a result of the Biden/Blinken deception further boosted Netanyahu’s insolence, fueling his aggression by expanding his war of terror and extrajudicial assassinations.
The war on Lebanon escalated when Israel detonated about 3,000 explosive devices in Lebanese cities and towns, an act condemned by former CIA Director Leon Panetta as a form of terrorism. The Biden administration’s policy of appeasement allowed the supercilious Israeli prime minister to indulge further in the extrajudicial assassinations of leaders in their homes in the Lebanese capital and waging massive air raids killing and injuring more than 20,000 Lebanese, mostly civilians, in one day.
The rogue prime minister ordered the American-made jets to drop 85–1000-pound bunker-buster bombs on an alleged headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut flattening several multi story buildings. As usual, Joe Biden and his Israeli firster Secretary of State, blessed the Israeli action disregarding the cost of civilians and that the raid obliterated an entire civilian neighborhood. Despite internal grumbling inside the administration over Israel conducting major military operations without consulting the U.S., Biden and without hesitation, obliged to Netanyahu’s request to dispatch additional American forces to help Israel deter any potential Iranian retaliation.
Using the same logic, what if the Resistance in Lebanon or Iran were to wipe out the entire Tel Aviv neighborhood surrounding Israeli government ministries? Would the killing of civilians be considered legitimate collateral damage when targeting the headquarters of Israel’s ministry of war in the heart of Tel Aviv? Or does the collateral damage rational apply only to those deemed less than equal human beings, the non-Jews and non-Westerners?
Israel is an insatiable Zionist culture of vengeance where massacring civilian is an integral part of its broader war strategy. They create false narratives such as militants hiding among civilians to justify murdering civilians. Iran’s decision to go out of its way to limit its retaliation to military sites represented a dilemma for Israel as we saw when Israeli army chief falsely claimed in a media spin that Iran aimed “to kill thousands of civilians.” The baseless allegation is part of an Israeli calculated strategy to preemptively justify and rationalize the potential targeting of Iranian civilians.
Meanwhile, and contrary to speculations in the U.S. media, the initial Israeli delay in responding to Iran’s retaliation has nothing to do with selecting targets in Iran. Israeli pilots have long simulated mock attacks on Iranian sites. Netanyahu, however, did not want to act alone—he sought for the U.S. to lead or, at the very least, join in the attack against Iran. This has always been, and remains, Netanyahu’s goal: to manipulate and coerce the U.S. into another made-for-Israel war in the Middle East.
Israel knows it cannot singlehandedly debilitate Iran’s military capabilities. However, Israel could carry a large-scale strike on Iran only to embarrass Biden and Kamala Harris’ campaign as part of Netanyahu’s October Surprise to bolster Donald Trump’s chances in November. Especially since such action is certain to provoke an Iranian counterattack that would severely damage Israel’s civil and economic infrastructure. A strike and counterstrike will thrust the war to the stage of the heated election debate, potentially benefiting Trump and hurting Harris.
There should be no illusion about Israel’s ability to cause wanton destruction in Iran. But if Iran was able to counter back with only ten percent of the extent of the Israeli damage, the devastation to Israel would be much more catastrophic. Because unlike Iran’s vast expanse and resources, Israel has only one international airport, one refinery, a handful of natural gas rigs, a small number of power plants and ports, one major nuclear facility, two major economic cities, and a handful of water desal plants.
In last week’s maneuver, Iran demonstrated the capacity to overwhelm the Israeli aerial defense system. If IRGC, in coordination with the Lebanese Resistance managed to deliver only ten explosive devices to each key infrastructure site, it would be a crushing blow, potentially crippling Israel, and for a long time.
Such a likely scenario should snap Netanyahu from his intoxicated euphoria and turn it into a prolonged hangover.