Who is
saying what about China today: Western
mainstream versus Russian mainstream
The lead
story on the BBC World News broadcast this morning was the military exercises
China is now carrying out in the Taiwan Strait and its encirclement of the
island by its ‘coast guard’ vessels in what is clearly meant to demonstrate its
ability to impose a blockade at any time of its choosing and so to bring Taiwan
to heel without an invasion and with little or no loss of life.
As the BBC news presenter explained, the
Chinese muscle flexing was a response to an aggressive speech a day ago by
Taiwan’s recently installed president William Lai Ching-tai, who said last
Thursday that “The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.”
Put in plain English, Lai was rejecting the One China policy that Beijing
agreed with Richard Nixon back in 1972. That policy had been the backbone of
U.S.-Chinese relations ever since….until the Trump and then the Biden
administration decided that any and all measures should be applied to contain the
growth of the People’s Republic and its implicit challenge to U.S. global
hegemony. Encouraging Taiwanese independence is one of the several elements of U.S.-led
containment.
Indeed, the
BBC’s explanation of the timing of the Chinese naval exercises may ring true,
but is it sufficient cause? I would suggest that the offensive speech may have
been little more than a pretext for a message that Beijing is sending over the
heads of the Taiwanese to the political establishment in the USA. The message
is that should the United States join Israel in an attack on Iran that puts
critically important supplies of oil to China from the Persian Gulf in
jeopardy, in retaliation China can use the distraction of Washington with wars
in Ukraine and the Middle East to accomplish its long-desired reunification
with Taiwan at minimal risk or cost to itself.
Meanwhile
in Russian state television news programs today the maneuvers around Taiwan
were not mentioned at all, though China was. The China story in Russia was
about the visit today of their Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov for talks
with his Chinese counterpart.
As we were
shown, Belousov made the mandatory protocol visit to Tienanmen Square to lay a
wreath at the memorial dedicated to Mao Tse-Tung’s liberation fighters, this
just a few days after the 75th anniversary of the founding of the
People’s Republic. However, we can be sure that this bit of pomp and ceremony
was just cover for the substantive talks on military cooperation at this moment
of high global tensions that Belousov and his delegation of senior military
officers conducted behind closed doors.
The news
coverage on Rossiya 1 told us nothing about those talks but did provide some videos
showing recent joint Russian-Chinese naval exercises that were carried out by
more than 400 vessels, the largest of their kind ever. And they assured the
television audience that this ever- closer military cooperation and exercises
is raising alarm in NATO.
*****
For its
part, Alternative Media today seem to have been more interested in developments
in the Middle East, where the outbreak of a region-wide war is expected at any
moment. Everyone is awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s firing 180 ballistic
missiles there on 1 October, a response that the Israeli military says will be a
‘deadly’ surprise for the Iranians. Then, there is speculation on what Iran
will do next, whether that will be escalatory in such manner as to bring in the
United States as an active belligerent at Israel’s side. All of this raises the
question of what Russia, Iran’s putative ally, will do in those circumstances.
Speculation is rife on all these counts.
With
respect to the last issue, today’s “Indian Punchline” delivered some
interesting food for thought. Author Bhadrakumar asks, very reasonably, why the
Russians seem to be dragging their feet over the signing of a military
cooperation agreement that was substantially agreed more than a month ago. He
points to the meeting of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian
President Vladimir Putin in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan on 11 October during which
it appeared that Pezeshkian is now the suitor who ‘hopes’ for consummation of
the deal when they meet next at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia ‘god willing’
(his _expression_) in a little more than a week’s time from now. In what may be
construed as a cold shower on that ‘hope,’ Vladimir Putin departed from his
usual procedure at the conclusion of such high- level talks and did not hold a
press conference.
I note that
the suggestion of less than wholehearted support for Iran by the Russians is
newsworthy. Many talking heads in the Alternative Media have been saying for
some time that the Russians have delivered to Iran their S400 air defense
systems and also possibly some advanced fighter jets together with pilots to
fly them. I admit to having said the same, although my usual source, Russian
state television spoke of such deliveries only as ‘possible’ but ‘unconfirmed.’
In an
interview today on “Judging Freedom,” Ray McGovern alluded to the “Indian
Punchline” article and offered his own explanation for why the Russians may
indeed be backpedaling on their military alliance with Teheran: they are doing everything in their power to
restrain the Iranians lest the conflict with Israel truly escalate out of
control. They have their hands full in Ukraine and want to avoid another direct
confrontation with the USA if possible.
I find this
argument persuasive, but I also see another consideration that should be taken
into account, namely the Kremlin’s distrust of Pezeshkian, who came to power in
the election held following the death in a helicopter crash of Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi had very good relations with Russia, and
there are some in Iran who say he was murdered at the orders of the very same political
faction that then promoted the candidacy of Pezeshkian in his bid for the
presidency as a Reformer. This faction is pro-Western, an Iranian equivalent of
the Liberals in Russia who are today called the Fifth Column there. These
backers of Pezeshkian want Iran to find an accommodation with the United States
and with the European signatories of the Comprehensive agreement on Iran’s
nuclear program, resulting in the removal of sanctions on their economy. Knowing
all of this, it is understandable that Vladimir Putin is now in no rush to give
a blank check to Teheran in its fight with Israel and, should this escalate
further, with the United States.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024