[Salon] Yemen’s Huthis and a widening Middle East war



Yemen’s Huthis and a widening Middle East war

Summary: the Huthis have gained credibility and support in Yemen and in the wider MENA region and beyond with attacks on shipping in the Red and Arabian Seas and the launching of missiles against Israel.

We thank our regular contributor Helen Lackner for today’s article. An expert on Yemen, Helen also works as a freelance rural development consultant with a particular interest in water, among other environmental issues. SAQI Books has published the paperback edition with new material of her Yemen In Crisis, now subtitled Devastating Conflict, Fragile Hope. It is a seminal study of the war, what lies behind it and what needs to happen for it to finally end. Her latest book Yemen: Poverty and Conflict was published by Routledge in 2022. You can find Helen’s most recent Arab Digest podcast “Yemen in the Gaza war” here.

Israel’s genocide in Gaza has not only fundamentally transformed the situation in the Mashreq, but also had a profound effect on the Yemen crisis, now ongoing for almost ten years. A year ago, the Huthis [Ansar Allah] were close to finalising an agreement which would have formally ended Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the crisis, leaving the UN Special Envoy with the unenviable task of trying to achieve a sustainable peace through Yemeni-Yemeni negotiations. These would have been negotiations between a strengthened Ansar Allah and a dramatically weakened internationally recognised government [IRG].

The IRG controls two-thirds of the country’s territory and one third of its population; it is deeply divided between a number of military-led factions. They are financially and politically dependent on support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE whose rivalry is one of the factors preventing the emergence of a united front. Due to Huthi pressure on Saudi Arabia, earlier this year, it was forced to abandon its main effective anti-Huthi weapon, control over access to international financial institutions. Other states in the international community had largely lost interest, leaving the crisis to the UN and Yemen’s neighbours. Since the Gaza war erupted, the IRG has expressed weak verbal support for Palestinians while some of its factions have prevented public demonstrations from the pro-Palestinian population. Following international involvement in the Red Sea war, some factions have also attempted to increase their relevance internationally by calling for military support to fight the Huthis, something which had not notably materialised at the time of writing. Its internal popularity is very low, given the weakness of basic services and governance.

By contrast, the Huthis have been transformed from a marginal movement irrelevant beyond the Arabian Peninsula, into a world-renowned militant force. Ansar Allah has become a standard bearer for all who support the Palestinian resistance against Israel and is now known by millions demonstrating against Israeli aggression worldwide. Its international impact is based on two of the strategies used in the past year: direct missile launches against Israel and maritime attacks on shipping in the Red and Arabian seas. Within the Arab and Muslim world where solidarity with Palestine is a very popular cause, few have failed to notice the contrast between Huthi pro-Palestinian military action and the inaction of Arab states.


The Huthis have transformed from a marginal movement into a world-renowned militant force

Although the majority of missiles launched against Israel in the past year have failed to reach their targets or cause any significant damage they remain significant as they force Israel to use its anti-missile weaponry as well as causing alerts. On the anniversary of the Hamas attack against Israel, Huthi supreme leader Abdul Malik al Huthi announced that the movement had fired more than 1000 missiles and drones, as well as targeted 193 ships on their way to the Suez Canal. The Red Sea attacks have most seriously impacted Egypt which is highly dependent on revenue from the Suez Canal, responsible for 40% of trade between Asia and Europe. With most ships diverting to the long route around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope, Suez canal revenue has dropped by 25% in the past year from US$9.2 bn to US$7.2 bn. Increased insurance prices and the longer shipping route have already cost international shipping an additional US$2.1 bn.

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have led to the sinking of two ships, the capture of the Galaxy Leader last November [whose crew are still held by the Huthis] and damage to many more. International response to ensure free movement of shipping include the Prosperity Guardian operation established last December by the US with a number of international partners, none of them states bordering the Red Sea, whose interventions have been less than effective. In January the US and UK started Operation Poseidon Archer which targets launching sites throughout Yemen, both on the coast and inland. Additionally the EU has Operation Aspides whose main activity is to escort ships in the Red Sea and does not engage in offensive actions. Despite all these naval forces roaming around the Red Sea and direct attacks on launching sites and US claims that Huthi capacities have been degraded, it is clear that Huthi attacks are hardly affected. US frustration has been expressed by military officials on more than one occasion.

The main Huthi target in Israel has been the port of Eilat, first successfully hit in March when it was barely within range of Huthi missiles. The port declared bankruptcy and by 24 July had dismissed half its staff. In recent months, other attacks against Eilat and Haifa were jointly claimed by the Huthis and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Most significantly, the more powerful missiles obtained with Iranian support have enabled the Huthis to extend the range of their attacks, and the first deadly strike took place on 19 July when a missile hit Tel Aviv in the night, killing one and wounding 10 people. A second one landed in central Israel on 15 September.

Unsurprisingly Israel retaliated with excessive force, attacking the ports of Hodeida and Ras Isa on 20 July and 29 September, causing 62 civilian casualties. The attacks seriously damaged oil storage tanks, port facilities and power stations, all essential to civilian survival and to the humanitarian efforts to help Yemenis avoid starvation. Remember that 80% of humanitarian aid is unloaded in Hodeida. Repairs were carried out promptly but the cost of the losses remains very high. Unlike US/UK strikes, Israeli attacks make no attempt to avoid civilian casualties: according to the detailed research carried out by the Yemen Data project, there have been more than 25 civilian casualties per Israeli raid by comparison with 0.32 for each Operation Poseidon Archer strike and 0.76 during the 7 years of Saudi strikes. Moreover, all Israeli air raids have hit civilian targets. Yemenis now fear for their lives in the next Israeli strike.

Despite this, Yemenis are deeply committed to supporting Palestine and this has affected their view of Ansar Allah throughout the country. While its oppressive rule is resented by millions who experience it daily, Yemenis respect the organisation for being the most determined actor opposing Israel, in a context where some Arab states even actively support Israel by allowing goods to be unloaded in Dubai and trucked across the peninsula to Israel. Although the Saudi regime has recently strengthened its rhetoric about Palestine, it remains the case, one year after the beginning of the Gaza genocide, now extended to Lebanon, that Huthi actions stand out in effectiveness and international impact. Peace in Yemen remains elusive as negotiations for a deal are on hold and will be difficult to resume while the Gaza war continues.

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