A great deal of ink has been spilled counting the losses of the countries involved in the hostilities that began on October 7. It was a dreadful attack that left a deep mark on the psyche of the Israeli people. Unfortunately, Israel’s ferocious counterattack, featuring massive bombing of urban areas not seen since World War II, has left a deep stain on Israel’s reputation. If the war expands into the Persian Gulf, as now appears increasingly likely, it will harm the vital interests of numerous countries, including those not otherwise involved in the hostilities. It could even change the course of American elections. Hitting the wrong targets in Iran could shake the foundations of the world economy. Moreover, October 7 has reignited old resentments in the Global South (and elsewhere) that many believed the liberal world order was on track to erase.
Hezbollah’s Role and Consequences in Lebanon
Hezbollah’s intervention on October 8, even if initially limited to firing rockets into empty fields, was Hassan Nasrallah’s major mistake. He once admitted that he underestimated the ferocity of the Israeli reaction when Hezbollah captured Israeli troops in 2006. This time, the same mistake cost him his life, not to mention the lives of hundreds of innocent Lebanese. The Israelis appear to have learned the costly lessons of their 2006 invasion; so far, they have avoided a major ground incursion into the mountainous south. Instead, they have refined their “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” which deploys the mass destruction of civilian infrastructure in order to apply pressure to their adversary. The IDF applied the doctrine to Gaza and is now using it in Lebanon. The Israeli Air Force can destroy civilian neighborhoods without challenge, given that neither Hamas nor Hezbollah possess an air defense system. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the Dahiyeh Doctrine is Israeli policy in his threat to do to Beirut what he has done to Gaza. But airpower alone has never brought victory. It does, however, cause survivors to hate those who bombed them.
Iran’s Response and Regional Escalation
Israel has provoked Iran into defending Hezbollah. Tehran first responded to an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, killing IRGC officials. The 300 missiles and drones launched at Israel were easily shot down by U.S. forces before they were even within range of Israel’s air defenses. Israel’s response, an attack against an Iranian air defense radar, was also equally stage-managed. These exchanges of fire in April 2024 allowed both Israel and Iran to boast about their strength, without causing too much damage.
Then the Israelis struck again in a manner Tehran could not downplay: the twin assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an Iranian official guest house and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. In response to the elimination of these two leaders, Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile assault on Israel. Despite Israeli reports, it appears a significant number of missiles evaded Israel’s Arrow defense system and hit an Israeli airbase housing F35s.
The Global Impact
Now Israel seeks to respond so strongly that it restores “deterrence,” as the Israelis see it. The U.S. appears to have argued against any attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Without the U.S.’ go-ahead, Israel lacks the capacity to do serious damage. Iran’s wide spread oil facilities are much more feasible and President Joe Biden has seemed to imply that the U.S. might go along. However, Biden later contradicted himself and suggested that he does not approve of such action. However, the mixed messaging alone sent oil prices climbing.
World oil markets are nervous, as is Joe Biden, with American elections due in four weeks. He seems to share the generally held belief that if its oil industry was attacked, Iran would retaliate in kind , hitting the oil and gas export facilities of the Arab Gulf countries allied with the United States. Said facilities are easy targets, located a very short missile flight distance from Iran. In 2018, Hassan Rouhani,, articulated it simply as “If Iran cannot export, no one will.” In an attempt to prove the viability of the threat, that same year, Iran sent a military delegation to various Arab Gulf countries with PowerPoint presentations as to just how they would do it.
An Israeli strike against Iranian oil facilities could lead to Iran cutting 20 million barrels a day out of world oil markets with almost incalculable consequences.
Israeli internal politics seem to rule out another purely symbolic strike. Netanyahu’s political future still rests in the hands of the two religious nationalist partners, Itimar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Both have called for a “strong response” If US pressure rules out attacks against nuclear or oil facilities, the target list is limited to striking Iran’s conventional military strength or decapitating its government. However, Israel lacks the capacity to sustain the large-scale operation necessary to seriously damage Iran’s military capacity. The country is too big and too far from Israel. Netanyahu may try to persuade Biden to join in this operation. He may argue that if America prohibited the other targets, we have an obligation to help them degrade the Iranian military. On the other hand, Israel can go it alone and attempt to decapitate the Iranian government . It has demonstrated the intelligence capacity to locate important targets in Iran. If it can assassinate Ismail Haniyeh in a closely guarded government housing and a dozen or more nuclear scientists, it certainly can locate senior officials of the Islamic Republic and the IRGC.
Both alternatives could destabilize the Iranian regime and perhaps achieve a long-held objective for war hawks in the United States: regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran. We should be careful what we wish for. Iran, a polyethnic country, has serious separatist movements active in its border regions: Baluchistan and Kurdistan. Decapitation or crippling its security forces could unleash those separatist movements. This could threaten stability in Turkey and Pakistan.
Migration Crisis and Regional Stability
Israel’s scorched earth tactics have another dangerous consequence, the displacement of large populations from their homes and livelihoods. As of this writing, the entire population ( 2.2 million people) of the Gaza Strip , have been driven from one corner of the strip to the other. For the moment, Gaza’s population is trapped, almost literally, between the Devil and Deep Blue Sea. Egypt will not let them into Sinai and Israel has penned them against a narrow strip of beach, facing near certain death from either starvation or cholera. Even if the fighting stops tomorrow, its population cannot survive in the poisoned waste land that is now Gaza without extensive outside support.
To the north, Israeli air raids have caused 1.2 million Lebanese to flee internally and sent at least 300,000 Syrian refugees who fled the Syrian civil war to Lebanon, to flee again to Syria where they face security risks. This will have a domino effect, pushing more Syrians into Turkey just as Turkey has begun pushing the three million Syrian refugees already in Turkey back into Syria. Additionally, another prolonged war, whether in Lebanon or Iran could cause a refugee crisis into Europe, similar to the 2014 Mediterranean refugee crisis.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to play Cato to Gaza’s Carthage not only devastated the Strip but it shined light on the enormous abyss separating the Western countries of Europe and the United States from the Global South. Lopsided majorities condemned Israel for its actions in Gaza and its continued occupation of the Palestinian territories in the United Nations General assembly. South Africa brought a case before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to condemn Israel for genocide. Israel only has the support of a dozen or so countries. The threat by the US Congress to sanction the ICJ does nothing to convince the Global South – or students worldwide – that the US enjoys the moral high ground.
Where is this all leading? It highlights even more the absolute necessity for the United States and its European allies to exert every effort to stop fighting in Gaza today, not tomorrow and not next week. Both Hezbollah and the Houthis have stated repeatedly that a cease-fire in Gaza will stop their attacks. We should call their bluff and take them up on the proposal before the war escalates out of control. Saving Israel appears to dominate President Biden’s thought process. It is a worthy objective; saving Netanyahu has nothing to do with it.
The
views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect the views of Gulf International Forum.