In a case of imperial hubris the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon
will not only fail to eradicate Hamas and Hezbollah but will weaken
Israel’s regional allies and make any progress towards regional
integration led by the Israelis even more unlikely
Such an exodus threatens to destabilise a regime whose legitimacy
rests on nationalist credentials, one of which is stopping the
establishment of a Palestinian state in Sinai, one of the many
conspiracy theories used by Sisi to discredit the Muslim Brothers and
justify their overthrow. A mass influx of Palestinians would cause
irreparable damage to the regime's domestic legitimacy amid a grinding
debt crisis. Tensions were not eased between the allies when Israel
occupied the Philadelphi Corridor, under the guise of destroying tunnels
and controlling the smuggling between Gaza and Sinai, with the Israeli accusation
that weapons were being smuggled to Hamas from Egypt. According to the
IDF when they seized control of the corridor only 9 tunnels were
discovered already sealed
by Egypt before 7 October. This claim seems to have been used by
Netanyahu to block a ceasefire deal, knowing Hamas rejects continued
Israeli presence in the corridor.
Another Arab country close to Israel and facing the repercussion of
Israeli hubris is Jordan. With violence in the West Bank escalating,
unleashed by settlers and the IDF, leading to the death of 749
Palestinians, there is good reason to fear that a scheme of ethnic
cleansing is in the works, this time pushing Palestinians to Jordan. It
is a concern echoed by Jordan's King Abdullah himself. These fears are not unfounded, considering that in March 2023, Smotrich showed
a map referring to greater Israel, which contained parts of Jordan. The
ethnic cleansing of the West Bank is a policy that predates 7 October;
however the war on Gaza has provided the necessary cover for its
expansion and intensification. Despite these fears, Jordan participated
in the downing of Iraninan missiles and drones launched into Israel in April and October.
Israel’s desire to destroy all its enemies in one go has also
derailed the grand prize of normalisation, namely Saudi Arabia, arguably
the most powerful Arab state and the heart of the conservative axis.
Before the war, normalisation looked to be within reach buttressed
by American security and military commitments and civilian-use nuclear
assistance. Indeed, over several years prior to 7 October Mohammed bin
Salman had expressed both publicly and privately his criticisms of the
Palestinians. One such instance was in April 2018 when he stated
“It is about time the Palestinians take the proposals and agree to come
to the negotiations table or shut up and stop complaining” lamenting
several supposed opportunities that the Palestinians had lost. His
sentiment seemed to have not changed with reports
as recent as September 2024, where he told US Secretary of State
Blinken that he does not personally care about what he called “the
Palestinian issue”. However, he is also acutely aware
that the young Saudi population does and that a normalisation deal on
the back of the slaughter in Gaza would be immensely damaging.
A deal could well have been possible before the Hamas attack but now - despite American claims to
the contrary - the prospects are dimming. The expansion of the war to
Lebanon and the continuing slaughter in Gaza will only make this
prospect even more remote. This is reinforced by the developing detente
between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as reflected in the meeting
between MbS and the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aragchi on 9 October
just two days past the first anniversary of the Hamas attack. Iran also
warned
the Arab Gulf countries that allowing their airspace or territory to be
used to launch strikes against it will draw a response, a terrifying
prospect for countries whose citizens are assumed to be largely
sympathetic to the Palestinians.
The Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon in what is a case of imperial
hubris will not only fail to eradicate Hamas and Hezbollah but will
weaken Israel’s regional allies and make any progress towards regional
integration led by the Israelis even more unlikely. Indeed, the Israeli
responses to 7 October has revealed something that many Arab leaders
chose to forget, namely that alliances with an apartheid state, based on
racial supremacy and colonial expansion are fickle and unstable. As
such, Israel was and remains a huge threat to the stability of all the
Arab regimes, be they allies and foes.
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