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In this special briefing:
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Despite Sinwar’s death, no end in sight for Gaza war
Khaled Elgindy
Sinwar’s death will do little to extinguish the flames engulfing the region
Charles Lister
No signs of policy shifts by Netanyahu following Sinwar’s killing
Nimrod Goren
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Many obstacles prevent negotiated resolutions to wars in Gaza, Lebanon
Randa Slim
US Secretary of State Blinken tries Middle East diplomacy again at a time of war
Brian Katulis
Post-Sinwar or pre-Iran-strike: A region awaits
Paul Salem
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Despite Sinwar’s death, no end in sight for Gaza war
Khaled Elgindy
Senior Fellow, Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed while battling Israeli soldiers in the southern Gaza town of Rafah last Wednesday, is a potential inflection point in the now year-long war that has seen at least 42,000 Palestinians killed and most of the Gaza Strip reduced to rubble. As the architect of the Oct. 7 attack and the ultimate arbiter over whether and when to accept a cease-fire, Sinwar’s death represents a major accomplishment for Israel’s military, which has racked up numerous tactical victories but has so far failed to achieve a decisive victory over Hamas. Both US and Israeli leaders have cast Sinwar as the primary obstacle to a cease-fire and hostage release deal, which has been stalled for many weeks.
Follow: @elgindy_
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Sinwar’s death will do little to extinguish the flames engulfing the region
Charles Lister
Senior Fellow, Director of Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs
The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is a hugely significant development, but not necessarily one that paves the way toward ending the war in Gaza or bringing calm to the Middle East at large. As the architect of the Oct. 7 attack and the Hamas decision-maker with the final say on hostage and cease-fire talks, Sinwar’s death will bring solace to many and offers a window past the last year of debilitating conflict, but it also muddies the waters significantly — inserting a greater level of complexity and uncertainty into both conflict and diplomacy dynamics. The hostage file in particular now faces a far deeper challenge, as it was Sinwar alone who allegedly managed their locations, provision, and ultimately, their fate.
Follow: @Charles_Lister
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No signs of policy shifts by Netanyahu following Sinwar’s killing
Nimrod Goren
Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs
There was a widespread sense of satisfaction in Israel after the news broke of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the Oct. 7 terror attack. The general sentiment was that justice was finally done and Israel was now closer to destroying Hamas’ military and governing infrastructure.
There was also hope that this would enable the return of the 101 hostages still held by Hamas. After all, for months Israelis have been hearing from the US administration and their own government that Sinwar was the primary obstacle to a cease-fire and hostage release deal. With him now gone, could it pave the way toward such a deal?
Follow: @GorenNimrod
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Many obstacles prevent negotiated resolutions to wars in Gaza, Lebanon
Randa Slim
Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program
Ahead of a potential major escalation in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, US officials are heading to the Middle East to push forward two cease-fire deals — one between Hamas and Israel and the other between Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel. In both conflict theaters, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feels he is on a winning streak after the decapitation of the two organizations’ senior leaders, the last one being Hamas’ head, Yahya Sinwar. Absent serious and credible US pressure, like imposing an arms embargo on Israel, Netanyahu, buoyed by the latest uptick in his public opinion polling, will not change his calculus. Having fully adopted the mantle of a war prime minister, he will persist with his mission to change “the strategic reality in the Middle East.”
Follow: @rmslim
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US Secretary of State Blinken tries Middle East diplomacy again at a time of war
Brian Katulis
Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to the Middle East at the start of this week, heading first to Israel and then to other regional capitals not yet announced. The main goal of Blinken’s 11th trip to the region since the start of the Israel-Hamas war a year ago, according to the State Department release, is the same one as his previous
trips: achieving a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza. But also on the list this time is a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Follow: @Katulis
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Post-Sinwar or pre-Iran-strike: A region awaits
Paul Salem
Vice President for International Engagement
The Middle East region is not so much in a post-Sinwar but in a pre-Iran-strike moment. The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is not a game changer per se. It weakens Hamas further but does not necessarily alter the chances for a hostage release, a cease-fire, or an end to the fighting in Gaza. Nor will it alter Israel’s second front campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The killing of Sinwar strengthens Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand — after the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon — and bolsters his momentum to take the war from Iranian allies or proxies to Iran itself. How the strike on Iran unfolds, and what dynamic of escalation — or de-escalation — it unleashes will determine the course of events in the region and the global economy for the weeks and months to come.
Follow: @paul_salem
Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images |
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