Dear colleagues, If you are interested in the military aspects of a hypothetical Taiwan scenario, please take a close look at this new article published on October 21 in Foreign Policy by my friend Paul Huang—Taiwan's leading military expert. I am honored to be quoted in this article, and I make the observation that so-called asymmetric weapons like anti-ship missiles (e.g. Harpoon) are hardly a "slam-dunk" for the island's defense. I am pleased that Huang's analysis also takes into account some of my geographic observations on the prospective battlefield. Indeed, I told him that Taiwan is 17 times smaller than Ukraine which matters a lot, since Chinese campaign planners would have a much simpler problem set. To take the point one step further, I would add that much of Taiwan is covered by extremely steep mountainous terrain—ruling out deployment of fairly large truck-mounted (and thus road-bound) missile-armed vehicles. Again, the contrast with Ukraine's flat plains and vast road network could not be more stark. Huang's excellent reporting adds other dimensions to this problem as well: Taiwan's "hubris," its "top-down, scripted command-and-control system," and the "island's inability to shield secrets in the age of social media"—all facets that would significantly aid a Chinese attack on Taiwan. He quotes a retired ROC Navy Captain who says, "Taiwan is too small to hide anything" and that sums up the problem quite nicely, especially given China's vastly improved ISR network that is also skillfully outlined in Huang's article. Finally, I might add the observation that Paul Huang knows very well that the island is unlikely to successfully create the "Fortress Taiwan," that is so often discussed in the DC corridors of power. Instead, Taipei should energize its diplomacy and actively seek an accommodation with its bulky superpower cousins across the Strait. That was done in 2008–2016 with the result that tensions substantially decreased across the Strait during that period. It is not too late to avert this disaster. Washington should use its diplomatic muscle to encourage such cross-Strait talks and simultaneously adhere closely to the One China Policy as our best hope for peace among the superpowers in the 21st century. Take care and thanks for reading my thoughts, Photo: Wikimedia Commons
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© 2024 Lyle Goldstein
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