Kim Jong-un’s big bet on Russia: The US expert view of North Korea’s latest moves
After initial hesitation, both the US and NATO have now officially confirmed that North Korea is deploying troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. That’s leading US experts to voice concerns that the North Korea troop deployment will have a fundamental impact on the security environment not only in Europe but also on the Korean Peninsula and even in the Indo-Pacific region. This article explores why North Korea is sending troops to Russia and how that will affect the world in the future, with each issue addressed in Q&A format.
① Why is Kim Jong-un taking these actions now?
The war in Ukraine is a life-and-death matter for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Recently, North Korea has been shifting its expectations from China to Russia. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that trade between North Korea and China in 2024 has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic levels. The think tank said that, based on its analysis of satellite images, North Korea and Russia have been briskly trading commercial goods over the railroad since the war broke out.
In an article titled “Crossing the Rubicon: DPRK Sends Troops to Russia,” published on Wednesday, Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea chair at CSIS, said that “DPRK support for Russia’s war allows the military to gain valuable experience with regard to the efficacy of its short-range ballistic missiles, as well as its munitions, although the latter is quite old and, in some cases, inoperative.”
“In many cases, the DPRK military lacks the fuel and material for training,” Cha continued. “This shortage undeniably has been blessed by support from Russia, but the combat experience is invaluable.”
Cha pointed out that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines hinted at the possibility of Russia breaking longstanding nonproliferation norms back in April of this year. During a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing, Haines said: “We remain concerned that Moscow will put at risk longstanding global norms against the use of asymmetric or strategically destabilizing weapons, including in space and in the cyber domain.”
Addressing such concerns, Cha wrote: “The dispatch of troops may be the threshold that leads Moscow to break those norms.”
Some
analysts say the war will give North Korea an opportunity to increase
its value to Russia by providing Moscow what it needs. In the Oct. 22
episode of his China Insider podcast, Miles Yu, a senior fellow and
director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, suggests that
while Russia has a lot to give North Korea, North Korea has “very
little” to offer Russia, except “commando special operation forces.”
Yu added that North Korea has “the world’s largest commando special operation forces,” saying they number “around 140,000” and are “very well trained and well fed despite the fact that the country was pretty much constantly on the verge of starvation.”
Yu claimed that after the mutiny by mercenaries in the Wagner Group, Putin needed new soldiers to “conduct wars overseas,” which had been the Wanger Group’s primary purpose. Yu argued that North Korea is the only country that can fill that gap.
“North Korea is willing, and North Korea is reciprocal to Putin’s offering,” Yu said.
Yu pointed out that ideology is also a major factor.
“I think mostly, in a nutshell, it’s ideologically driven,” he said. “Their ideology is anti-West and North Korea has been in the war against the US-led West for decades, and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine was not just about grabbing territories from Ukraine, it’s about making a statement against the West.”
Yu argued that Putin “really looks at himself as a crusader against the Western-dominated world order,” adding that Xi Jinping and China have “jumped in” and said, “Oh, we’re together. We’re going to change the world order.”
He went on to say: “Basically, the war in Ukraine is China’s war as much as it is Russia’s war.
“This war in Ukraine launched by Russia is truly a war of coalition among its buddies, China and North Korea,” Yu said. “They share the same goal but just have different divisions of labor.”
② Why did Austin call this a “very, very serious issue”?
On Wednesday, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told traveling reporters in Rome, Italy: “If they’re [North Korea] co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” adding that the impact would be felt not only in Europe but throughout the Indo-Pacific.
Markus Garlauskas, the director of the new Indo-Pacific Security Initiative of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and the former national intelligence officer for North Korea under the director of national intelligence, said that “the resources, military technology, and capabilities Russia may provide to North Korea in exchange for its support could fundamentally reshape the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the broader Indo-Pacific.”
Garlauskas argued that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could reach “a tipping point in his escalation calculus that leads to a military crisis or armed conflict on the peninsula.”
Garlauskas thinks that such a conflict, considering the “crumbling deterrence” on the Korean Peninsula, could pull in China and the United States, which he says would “indirectly influence the war in Ukraine far more than what North Korean troops would bring to the fight itself.”
③What impact will this have on North Korea-Europe, South Korea-Europe relations?
Some analysts say North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia will fundamentally change its relations with the European Union.
Cha says that “Europe traditionally has been North Korea’s gateway to the West and was seen by Pyongyang as more ‘neutral’ than the United States.”
“North Korean diplomats are stationed in most European capitals, and the level of interaction in general (pre-pandemic) has been fluid, much more so than with the United States, South Korea (ROK), or Japan,” Cha added.
“But North Korea’s decision to send troops to kill Europeans will not easily be forgotten in European capitals. Thus, this tactical move by Kim will have long-term consequences for EU-DPRK relations,” Cha concluded.
Cha also thinks the deployment will revitalize relations between South Korea and NATO.
“There is an opportunity for the ROK [South Korea] and NATO to deepen relations pursuant to becoming a partner state in 2006 and advancement to the Individually Tailored Partnership Programme in 2023 in areas like intelligence sharing, cyberdefense, interoperability, emerging technologies, military purchases, defense-industrial cooperation, and establishing common standards.”
④ What choices are left for the international community?
Cha advised that we “should not expect” any new action from the UN Security Council, given Russia and China’s opposition, adding, “Actions and statements are more likely to come from the G7 countries plus South Korea, Australia, and other like-minded partners.”
Cha predicted that North Korea’s troop deployment “will give impetus to the new grouping called the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team established by the United States, Japan, and South Korea last week to coordinate sanctions enforcement on North Korea.”
The deployment is a signal that China, Russia and North Korea will continue amping up their cooperation with Iran.
The Guardian quoted Richard Fontaine, the CEO of the Center for a New American Security, as saying: “Russia has offered the kind of political support to Pyongyang that previously was seen only in Beijing, and emboldens the North. It may also be providing missile technology and possibly submarine technology.”
The Guardian said
that Fontaine argued that the Kremlin is using the war in Ukraine to
accelerate the deepening of its ties with Pyongyang.
The bigger picture is the mounting cooperation among Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran, which Garlauskas says poses “a whole new challenge for the United States and its allies around the globe.”
By Kim Won-chul, staff reporter