The BRICS Summit Should Mark the End of Neocon DelusionsJeffrey D. Sachs | November 2, 2024 | Common Dreams Simply put, the majority of the world does not want or accept U.S. hegemony, and is prepared to face it down rather than submit to its dictates. The
recent BRICS Summit in
Kazan, Russia, should
mark the end of the
Neocon delusions
encapsulated in the
subtitle of Zbigniew
Brzezinski’s 1997
book, The Global
Chessboard: American
Primacy and its
Geostrategic
Imperatives.
Since the 1990s, the
goal of American
foreign policy has
been “primacy,” aka
global hegemony. The
U.S. methods of choice
have been wars, regime
change operations, and
unilateral coercive
measures (economic
sanctions). Kazan
brought together 35
countries with more
than half the world
population that reject
the U.S. bullying and
that are not cowed by
U.S. claims of
hegemony. In
the Kazan Declaration,
the countries
underscored “the
emergence of new
centres of power,
policy decision-making
and economic growth,
which can pave the way
for a more equitable,
just, democratic and
balanced multipolar
world order.” They
emphasized "the need
to adapt the current
architecture of
international
relations to better
reflect the
contemporary
realities,” while
declaring their
“commitment to
multilateralism and
upholding the
international law,
including the Purposes
and Principles
enshrined in the
Charter of the United
Nations (UN) as its
indispensable
cornerstone.” They
took particular aim at
the sanctions imposed
by the U.S. and its
allies, holding that
“Such measures
undermine the UN
Charter, the
multilateral trading
system, the
sustainable
development and
environmental
agreements.” The
neocon quest for
global hegemony has
deep historical roots
in America’s belief in
its exceptionalism. In
1630, John Winthrop
invoked the Gospels in
describing the
Massachusetts Bay
Colony as a “City on
the Hill,” declaring
grandiosely that “The
eyes of all people are
upon us.” In the 19th
century, America was
guided by Manifest
Destiny, to conquer
North America by
displacing or
exterminating the
native peoples. In the
course of World War
II, Americans embraced
the idea of the
“American Century,”
that after the war the
U.S. would lead the
world. The
U.S. delusions of
grandeur were
supercharged with the
collapse of the Soviet
Union at the end of
1991. With America’s
Cold War nemesis gone,
the ascendant American
neoconservatives
conceived of a new
world order in which
the U.S. was the sole
superpower and the
policeman of the
world. Their foreign
policy instruments of
choice were wars and
regime-change
operations to
overthrow governments
they disliked. Following
9/11, the neocons
planned to overthrow
seven governments in
the Islamic world,
starting with Iraq,
and then moving on to
Syria, Lebanon, Libya,
Somalia, Sudan, and
Iran. According to
Wesley Clark, former
Supreme Commander of
NATO, the neocons
expected the U.S. to
prevail in these wars
in 5 years. Yet now,
more than 20 years on,
the neocon-instigated
wars continue while
the U.S. has achieved
absolutely none of its
hegemonic objectives. The
neocons reasoned back
in the 1990s that no
country or group of
countries would ever
dare to stand up to
U.S. power.
Brzezinski, for
example, argued in The
Grand Chessboard that
Russia would have no
choice but to submit
to the U.S.-led
expansion of NATO and
the geopolitical
dictates of the U.S.
and Europe, since
there was no realistic
prospect of Russia
successfully forming
an anti-hegemonic
coalition with China,
Iran and others. As
Brzezinski put it: “Russia’s
only real geostrategic
option—the option that
could give Russia a
realistic
international role and
also maximize the
opportunity of
transforming and
socially modernizing
itself—is Europe. And
not just any Europe,
but the
transatlantic Europe
of the enlarging EU
and NATO.”
(emphasis added,
Kindle edition, p.
118) Brzezinski
was decisively wrong,
and his misjudgment
helped to lead to the
disaster of the war in
Ukraine. Russia did
not simply succumb to
the U.S. plan to
expand NATO to
Ukraine, as Brzezinski
assumed it would.
Russia said a firm no,
and was prepared to
wage war to stop the
U.S. plans. As a
result of the neocon
miscalculations
vis-à-vis Ukraine,
Russia is now
prevailing on the
battlefield, and
hundreds of thousands
of Ukrainians are
dead. Nor—and
this is the plain
message from Kazan—did
U.S. sanctions and
diplomatic pressures
isolate Russian in the
least. In response to
pervasive U.S.
bullying, an
anti-hegemonic
counterweight has
emerged. Simply put,
the majority of the
world does not want or
accept U.S. hegemony,
and is prepared to
face it down rather
than submit to its
dictates. Nor does the
U.S. anymore possess
the economic,
financial, or military
power to enforce its
will, if it ever did. The
countries that
assembled in Kazan
represent a clear
majority of the
world’s population.
The nine BRICS members
(Brazil, Russia,
India, China, and
South Africa as the
original five, plus
Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran,
and the United Arab
Emirates), in addition
to the delegations of
27 aspiring members,
constitute 57 percent
of the world’s
population and 47
percent of the world’s
output (measured at
purchasing-power
adjusted prices). The
U.S., by contrast,
constitutes 4.1
percent of the world
population and 15
percent of world
output. Add in the
U.S. allies, and the
population share of
the U.S.-led alliance
is around 15 percent
of the global
population. The
BRICS will gain in
relative economic
weight, technological
prowess, and military
strength in the years
ahead. The combined
GDP of the BRICS
countries is growing
at around 5 percent
per annum, while the
combined GDP of the
U.S. and its allies in
Europe and the
Asia-Pacific is
growing at around 2
percent per annum. Even
with their growing
clout, however, the
BRICS can’t replace
the U.S. as a new
global hegemon. They
simply lack the
military, financial,
and technological
power to defeat the
U.S. or even to
threaten its vital
interests. The BRICS
are in practice
calling for a new and
realistic
multipolarity, not an
alternative hegemony
in which they are in
charge. American
strategists should
heed the ultimately
positive message
coming from Kazan. Not
only has the neocon
quest for global
hegemony failed, it
has been a costly
disaster for the US
and the world, leading
to bloody and
pointless wars,
economic shocks, mass
displacements of
populations, and
rising threats of
nuclear confrontation.
A more inclusive and
equitable multipolar
world order offers a
promising path out of
the current morass,
one that can benefit
the U.S. and its
allies as well as the
nations that met in
Kazan. The
rise of the BRICS is
therefore not merely a
rebuke to the U.S.,
but also a potential
opening for a far more
peaceful and secure
world order. The
multipolar world order
envisioned by the
BRICS can be a boon
for all countries,
including the United
States. Time has run
out on the neocon
delusions and the U.S.
wars of choice. The
moment has arrived for
a renewed diplomacy to
end the conflicts
raging around the
world. |