China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road
By Hank Cohen - November 2024
China’s
growing presence in Africa has been the subject of significant
criticism. The popular understanding in the US of China’s role on the
continent has been that the People’s Republic, via the Belt and Road
Initiative, has offered African countries a raw deal: shoddy
infrastructure projects in exchange for loans they know their partners
cannot repay. The approach is commonly described as debt-trap diplomacy,
garnering unfavorable comparisons to organized crime behavior. But the
reality of China’s presence in Africa is more nuanced.
Benefits for African Nations
While
initial missteps plagued the projects, China has largely reformed its
approach. The country has shifted from doing infrastructure projects
based on loans to working on a grant basis. As a result, China is now
providing much-needed infrastructure for African countries, without the
harm of tying them up in debt.
Changes in financing have largely
improved their approach to infrastructure building. This is critical for
African nations, who are now poised to benefit from a demographic boom
that will see one in four people on the planet live on the continent by
2050. By building infrastructure like factories and highways, they are
positioning African nations to be a powerful manufacturing workforce for
the future world economy. This has the potential to create great
economic benefits for Africans.
However, despite the positive
infrastructure implications of the reform of Belt and Road, policymakers
in both the US and Africa would be wise to keep their eyes open to the
reality of this situation. While Belt and Road may largely be good news
for Africans, aspects of China’s presence on the continent pose
significant issues.
A Threat to African Manufacturing Industries
China’s
capacity for exporting cheap goods is a disruptive force all around the
globe, and Africa is no exception. In Africa, along with Chinese trade
have come Chinese workers. In many cases, these workers remain in Africa
after their projects are completed and establish retail shops
specializing in importing low-cost Chinese goods that undermine existing
local manufacturing. The city of Kano in northern Nigeria, once a
thriving industrial hub, is a good example of decline due to cheap
Chinese imports.
We are at an inflection point for Africa’s
economic future. Across the continent, local manufacturing industries
are now working to get off the ground. According to the African
Development Bank, the continent originates only 1.9% of global
manufacturing. This may soon change, as demographic change attracts
private-sector investors looking for vibrant young workforces. African
leaders should prioritize protecting these burgeoning sectors and jobs.
Gaining Support in the U.N. General Assembly
China’s
cultivation of strong ties with African nations is also something the
US should take seriously. In exchange for their economic support and
trade relations, China has gained African allies in the U.N. General
Assembly. When resolutions related to China come up for vote, China has
in turn pressured their African partners to vote in support of their
interests. An excellent example is the lack of action by the U.N. on
Chinese repression of the minority Uyghur Muslim population. Voting at
the United Nations General Assembly on the Uyghur issue has seen African
delegations either vote no or abstain.
US Energy Interests
Finally,
China’s growing presence on the African continent has meaningful
effects on the US energy mineral supply chain, a critical topic as the
world attempts to move towards renewable energy. With cobalt and lithium
key to the battery storage of renewable energy, the US must take steps
now to protect its interests in countries like the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, which has the second-largest deposit of cobalt in the
world after Russia.
In 2010, an American company, Freeport
McMorran, opened a mine in central DRC called Tenke Fungurume, which is
very rich in copper and cobalt. In 2019, the company’s mining operation
in Papua New Guinea went bankrupt. It had to sell Tenke to stay afloat.
Who bought this rich mine? CMOC, a Chinese company. The United States
government was strongly neglectful by not working to keep Tenke
Fungurume in American private sector hands. In the future, the USG
should monitor and prepare to counter Chinese activity with similar
potential to disrupt critical supply chains.
The Lessons: For the US and Africans
An
important lesson for the African governments in their dealings with
China has been that the relationship needs to be managed. African
nations cannot just silently enjoy China’s “generosity.” Leaders on the
continent need to exercise controls to promote the good and discourage
the bad aspects of China’s way of doing business, like undercutting
domestic manufacturing by flooding their countries with cheap Chinese
goods. Likewise, the US should be mindful of how these relationships can
have long-term consequences on industries already hampered by stretched
supply chains.
Should the United States be competing with China
in Africa? American development programs, which emphasize the building
of African capabilities, and US support for United Nations’ programs,
are substantially more valuable than what the Chinese are doing. But the
fact that remains that China’s growing influence, especially in regard
to energy mineral supply chains and voting blocs within the UN General
Assembly, is accompanied by potential issues.
The reality of
China’s Africa policy contains more shades of grey than popularly
understood. The positives for Africans are real, but so are the
potential pitfalls. It’s urgent, then, that US and African leaders
closely watch China’s moves, and work to shape their growing influence
to create a more positive future.