China Reacts to Trump's Election
Featuring commentary from leading pro- and anti-Trump IR experts: Yan Xuetong, Jia Qingguo, Wu Xinbo, Jin Canrong, Huang Jing and Hu Wei.
Thomas des Garets Geddes and Paddy Stephens
Nov 08, 2024
https://www.sinification.com/p/china-reacts-to-trumps-election
The theme of China’s official response is cooperation. As the results trickled in on Thursday morning, the People’s Daily homepage had an article about an event for the “Flying Tigers” — American personnel who served in China during the Second World War. The political messaging, reporting on an event that happened two months ago, was not subtle: “The United States and China could cooperate in the past, and they can still cooperate today”. Since then, Xi Jinping has called Trump to congratulate him on winning. A commentary in Xinhua described “whether China and the United States can find the right way to get along” as “the question of the century”.
But what did people in China really make of Trump’s victory? Social media has thankfully offered no shortage of reactions. The hashtag “Trump officially declares victory” (特朗普正式宣布获胜) received over 1.2 billion views on Weibo. Some netizens saw the funny side, joking about his age and referring to him by the nickname Comrade Build-the-Country (建国同志), a humorous pun on Trump’s Chinese name that suggests he has inadvertently aided China’s rise.
There were plenty of serious reactions too. Some thought Trump would bring a pragmatic, business-oriented mindset which would be “more friendly to China and more beneficial to world stability”. Others worried that he could bring "stock markets crashing", "setbacks for EV companies", and "heightened trade frictions”. Many thought that, ultimately, it mattered little who won the election. “At root, [US policy, regardless of who won the election] is all about countering China” (基本盘都是针对中国).
Chinese scholars are no less split on Trump’s victory. Some greet his return with nonchalance, others with serious concern for what it means for China. Some actively welcome his return, thinking it offers opportunities for China. This post outlines the views of six prominent Chinese scholars on what a new Trump presidency could mean for China and the world.
Will Trump bring more or less confrontation with China in areas like policy regarding Taiwan? At the pessimistic end of the spectrum, Jia Qingguo argues that serious confrontation is likely. Trump could increase security assistance to Taiwan, and even go so far as to abandon America’s One-China Policy. Contrast that with Yan Xuetong who, though concerned about increased uncertainty under Trump, argues that Trump’s focus on domestic affairs makes conflict less likely. Trump will be reasonably cautious when it comes to Taiwan, Yan says, to avoid US involvement in a third simultaneous military conflict. Most optimistic about what Trump could mean for US-China relations is Hu Wei. Trump as a businessman might well be prepared to make a deal, with Musk available as a broker, leading to a turning point in relations. His election is bad news for “independence forces” in Taiwan, he says: Trump might force Taiwan to pay protection money, or even be prepared to cut a deal to “resolve the Taiwan issue”.
How worried should China be about a trade war? Yan is seriously concerned about a trade war since China has only a limited ability to retaliate against high tariffs. But, Jin Canrong argues that a trade war should not be much trouble for China, a big country with enormous productive capacity. Smaller countries will be hit far harder. The damage and chaos, Jin argues, will be short-lived.
The scholars offer a range of views on a possible Ukraine peace deal and its impact on China. Huang Jing argues that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is perfectly achievable and could pave the way for a détente between the US and Russia. That could lead to nightmare scenarios for China: “Nixon 2.0” where the US and Russia team up against China, or “Reagan/Thatcher 2.0”, where Europe’s far-right teams up with Trump to contain China.
Yet peace in Ukraine is key to such an arrangement and Jin Canrong is sceptical that Ukraine would be prepared to make concessions. Hu Wei thinks it unrealistic that the US and Russia would unite to oppose China. He predicts rather that Trump’s policies will cause conflicts with allies, giving more space for China internationally. Hu argues that, ultimately and probably without realising it, Trump will introduce policies beneficial to China.
Paddy Stephens
https://www.sinification.com/p/china-reacts-to-trumps-election