by Will Selber Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which Hezbollah initiated on October 8, 2023, looks to be headed toward a two-month ceasefire. The Israeli government approved the American-negotiated proposal on Tuesday, and President Biden announced that the Lebanese government had also agreed to it, though Hezbollah made no official comment about the deal. The ceasefire went into effect at 4 a.m. local time this morning—9 p.m. last night, for those of us on Eastern Time—and so far appears to be holding, NBC News reports.
This is the closest Hezbollah and Israel have been to a truce since Hamas’s October 7 pogrom. Although Hezbollah and Hamas are part of Iran’s proxy networks, the two groups are distinct. Hezbollah is a Shia group filled with veterans from the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. This week, the Israeli Defense Forces announced they successfully killed Hezbollah leader Ali Musa Daqduq in Syria. In 2007, the United States captured Ali Musa Daqduq, but released him to the Iraqi government during the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq. A few weeks later, the Iraqi government released him to Hezbollah.
Daqduq’s recent demise underscores the IDF’s remarkable campaign against Hezbollah. While the IDF’s war against Hamas grinds on without any substantial progress on a similar ceasefire, the IDF has obliterated Hezbollah’s command structure and made steady gains during their recent incursion into Lebanon.
As always, the devil is in the details. According to local Israeli press reports, the deal will end the fighting in southern Lebanon for two months. During this time, Hezbollah would pull its forces from southern Lebanon back across the Litani River, which is approximately 20 miles from Israel’s northern border. The Lebanese Army, which the Lebanese government nominally controls, would fill Hezbollah’s positions, along with the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon.
The structure of the current ceasefire is very similar to the deal that was supposed to end the 2006 Lebanon War. United Nations Resolution 1701, which followed that 34-day conflict, also called for Hezbollah to move its forces behind the Litani River. However, UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army were never able to disarm Hezbollah, and thus the Iran-backed terror group remained, creating tunnel networks that rival Hamas’s.
Israel has stated they will not accept a ceasefire that doesn’t explicitly allow them the freedom to hit Hezbollah if they violate the ceasefire. The Biden administration has tried to ease Israel’s concerns by creating a “side letter” that underscores Israel’s right to act against an “immediate threat.”
Iran still lurks as a possible spoiler. Following the IDF’s successful late-October airstrikes, which crippled Iran’s air defense system and demolished an Iranian nuclear research facility, Iran has promised to retaliate. However, that retaliation may have already come in the form of the recent kidnapping and killing of Rabbi Zvi Kogen in the United Arab Emirates. Israel has accused Iran of being behind the attack. Iran has denied any involvement but has a long history of conducting such plots against Israeli citizens.
Right now, the Israelis have a ceasefire deal with the Lebanese government, which has been more of an observer to the war than a participant in it. Whether Hezbollah will abide by the ceasefire for its duration remains to be seen. Either way, Iran likely won’t.