Europe Doubts Trump on US Military Aid to Kyiv
A US HIMARS rocket launched by Ukrainian forces.
Photographer: Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images
Europe’s capitals remain preoccupied by war in Ukraine, yet more than 1,000 days after Russia’s invasion, US military support to Kyiv still vastly outweighs that of its European allies.
That awkward reality is a cause for growing unease from Warsaw to Brussels with the reelection of Donald Trump to the presidency. His pledge to end the war immediately on taking office in January has raised speculation that he could seek to compel Kyiv to reach a settlement that offers insufficient security guarantees.
It’s a concern given wings by Trump’s pick as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia of Keith Kellogg, a retired general who’s advocated making military aid conditional on Kyiv entering talks.
The result is a new sense of urgency in Europe, not only to bolster the continent’s own defenses given Trump’s skepticism of NATO, but to keep assistance flowing.
Europe must “be ready to replace at least part of American support to Ukraine,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said at a meeting with Baltic and Nordic counterparts yesterday.
European countries have started to produce more military equipment domestically and are scouring the world for ammunition stocks for Ukraine.
But in the case of the one million artillery shells that Brussels promised, it came late: The target has just been reached — eight months behind schedule.
Ukraine has ramped up its own arms sector, notably with drones that strike deep inside Russia.
Yet Moscow still exceeds Europe’s artillery production, and outfires Ukraine on the battlefield. It targeted Ukraine’s power system overnight in the second large-scale barrage this month.
In Kyiv, the mood is somber, though there’s also hope that Trump might be convinced to support Ukraine.
If there’s one thing the president-elect doesn’t want to be seen as, it’s a loser. And a truce favoring Russia may be regarded as a strategic defeat for the West.
But it’s a thin straw to grasp. — Maxim Edwards