Where does Turkey stand in the Syria equation?
Turkey says in its official statements that it is not involved in the clashes that escalated again on November 27 in northwestern Syria. However, the fact that some elements of the FSA (SMO in its own words), which is directly supported by Ankara, participate in the conflicts in Aleppo on the side of the HTS and its entry into Tel Rıfat show that Turkey is not out of the equation. In addition, shortly before the operation, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan criticized Astana partners for not being taken on the fight against terrorism and refugees in Syria, and said that "they could take other steps where no response could be obtained with their diploma".
The first official statement from Turkey regarding the attacks launched by terrorist organizations in Idlib against the Syrian army on November 27 and aimed at Hama by capturing Aleppo was made on November 29.
Ankara: We warned
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Öncü Keçeli said in a statement made on his social media account that HTS's attack on Aleppo was due to "the recent increasing attacks against Idlib" without naming it. The second point that Keçeli drew attention to was that the Syrian extension of the PKK in Tel Rifat and Münbiç stated that the YPG increased its attacks against Turkey without naming it again in the midst of increasing instability.
Keçeli said, "We have made the necessary warnings on various international platforms that the recent attacks against Idlib have reached a size that will harm the spirit and functioning of the Astana agreements and cause serious civilian casualties, and we have noted that these attacks should be stopped."
Stating that the recent clashes have caused an unwanted increase in tension in the region, Keçeli underli underlined that it is of great importance for Turkey not to cause new and greater instability and that the civilian population is not harmed.
Keçeli said: "We are also watching carefully the increase in the attacks of terrorist groups in Tel Rıfat and Münbiç, which are trying to take advantage of the current instability, targeting the civilian population and Turkey. The fact that the previous agreements reached with the stakeholders in order to terminate the terrorist presence in these regions have not been fulfilled increases our concerns."
“We are not involved”
A day later, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in his statement on the subject at the TRT World Forum that Turkey is not involved in the ongoing conflicts in Aleppo, "We will not take any action that will trigger a new wave of migration."
Stating that the developments in Syria are closely followed, Fidan said, "Turkey is not involved in the conflicts in Aleppo. Precautions are being taken. We will not take any action that will trigger a new wave of migration," he said.
Turkey, which has about 3 million Syrians, has long said that a possible operation to be carried out in the Idlib region with a population of about 2 million will trigger a new mass migration movement towards its borders.
Turkey was disturbed by the lack of willingness of the Syrian government and Astana partners to take steps on the return of Syrian refugees, which is an important topic of discussion of both migration and the issue of domestic politics.
According to the Financial Times, Iraqi officials who mediated the talks between Damascus and Ankara this year said the Assad government refused to take a step towards refugees. "Assad instead continued to hit Idlib at the hands of the rebels and pushed thousands of people towards the Turkish border with soldiers in the north of Syria, which hosts about 3 million Syrian refugees and supports the rebels," the FT's news said.
Ankara thinks that Russia and Iran did not pressure Assad
President Tayyip Erdoğan made multiple calls to start a new era between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the two countries, but his prerequisite for Syria's refusal to "withdrawal of Turkish soldiers from Syria" or "put forward a schedule for withdrawal" blocked this process. Turkey; It thinks that Astana partners Russia and Iran did not put enough pressure on Damascus during the normalization process.
In a statement made on November 23 days before the attack of the HTS, Foreign Minister Fidan said, "There is no normalization of Turkey and Syria among Iran's priorities in Syria. For Russia, since there is already a ceasefire in the region and a serious threat does not show itself much, such an issue is not on the agenda," he said.
Fidan continued as follows: "According to our assessment, there is an approach that thinks that the continuation of the process we started in Astana will be sufficient, but of course there is a matter of sustainability. A threat that is gradually evolving in Syria because the necessary steps have not been taken in the fight against terrorism and regarding refugees. In other words, it could evolve into a threat where our subsequent cost of destruction increases day by day. We are looking for a solution for this. Of course, where these searches for a solution cannot be answered with diplomace and a constructive approach, we will see how we have to take other types of steps when the time comes."
"He gave a trump card to Ankara"
Syrian "opposition" sources in Turkey told Al-Akhbar, "War would not have started without its approval, but there may not be a target harmony between what Ankara wants and what the Syrian opposition wants."
According to the news in the FT, analysts said that Turkey may not have explicitly approved the attack led by the HTS, but the attack would serve Turkey's interests and would give Ankara more trump cards in any negotiations.
“Since the summer, Assad has had a chance to sit with Erdogan and work on a plan that Turkey would create a zone of influence in northern Syria,” said the Syrian analyst Malik al-Abdeh. He had the chance to negotiate this situation while maintaining his reputation politically, but he refused," he said.
HTS is described as a terrorist organization by the United Nations (UN). Therefore, Turkey also classifies HTS as a terrorist organization. However, it is also a known fact that some elements of the FSA, which Turkey officially supports, participated in the attacks led by HTS.
It is a frequently expressed opinion that Turkey "happens" to the attack of the HTS in order to take a step back from the conditions it put forward for normalization by squeezing Assad over a strategic city like Aleppo. Turkey wants to conclude the normalization process with Damascus with the return of refugees and the elimination of the YPG threat with its main goals.
However, considering that even the name of normalization has resulted in the attack of such groups on Turkey's assets in Syria, how wise it is to take this step for this goal is also a matter of debate.
Iranian minister who met with Assad is in Turkey
On the other hand, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Iraqist met with Bashar al-Assad in Damascus last night regarding the crisis. The Iraqist then came to Turkey.
The Iraqist said that they exchanged views on his meeting with Assad and continued: "Of course, the spirit of the Syrian government, whose conditions are difficult but certain, and the resistance of the Syrian terrorists against this latest conspiracy. There have been even more difficult times in the past when ISIS and other terrorist groups have dragged Syria into civil war, but they have been confronted and now they have found another opportunity. They are thinking of resurrecting due to the conditions arising from the Zionist regime's occupation of Lebanon and Palestine.”
The Iraqi said, “The Syrian army and government have the power to resist terrorists. Of course, resistance groups will also help. The Islamic Republic of Iran will also provide all kinds of support deemed necessary for the elimination of the takfirists," he said.
In his meeting with Hakan Fidan, the Iranian Minister said that they would "focus largely on common concerns". Stating that there are issues that Turkey and Iran always consult each other on different issues and that they cannot agree on, the Iraqi said, "We hope that a common understanding will be reached on the issues that will lead to regional stability this time and prevent Syria or the region from becoming a center for terrorists once again."
MIDDLE EAST
Published
31 minutes ago 02/12/2024 AuthorThe Israeli army continues its actions that violate the ceasefire with Lebanon. One person lost his life in the attack on the Mercaiyun region of Lebanon by Israel, and a Lebanese soldier was injured in the attack on Hermel.
Since November 27, when the ceasefire agreement came into force, the number of violations by the Israeli army, resulting in the death of two people and the injury of 6, has increased to at least 73.
The Israeli army has committed numerous violations, especially the bleeding of houses, artillery fire, warplanes and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) airstrikes, the flights of surveillance UAVs.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health announced that one person died in an airstrike carried out by Israel on the Mercaiyun region in the south of the country. It was noted that the attack was an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack targeting a motorcycle.
A soldier was injured in Hermel
According to the post made on the Lebanese army's X social media account, the Israeli army targeted the army's bulldozer in the Hoş es-Sayyid Ali region of Hermel, northeastern Lebanon. A soldier was injured as a result of the targeting of the bulldozer, which was carrying out fortification work in the region.
The body of an officer was found in Nakura
On the other hand, the Lebanese army announced that it had found the body of an officer who was targeted and killed by Israel in Nakura in the south of the country. According to the official Lebanese news agency NNA, the officer's body was found in his car in Nakura. While it was stated that the contact with the officer was cut off on November 26, it was noted that the necessary investigation was carried out regarding the incident.
USA warned
According to the news of Yedioth Ahronot newspaper, sources with knowledge on the subject warned the US administration about Israel to violate the ceasefire agreement.
The sources in question were quoted as saying, "Israel has violated the ceasefire agreement, especially with the visible and public return of Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles to the skies of Beirut."
Expressing that "every side needs to be restraint" for the ceasefire to continue in Lebanon, the sources shared that US President Joe Biden's Senior Advisor Amos Hochstein conveyed his warning to the Tel Aviv administration that Israel violated the ceasefire.
Israel did not use the mechanism
According to the Israeli press, France, one of the mediators of the agreement, also holds Israel responsible for the ceasefire violations. According to reports based on French diplomatic sources, France accused Israel of committing 52 ceasefire violations. Sources said Israel did not use appropriate channels to report Hezbollah's violations to the US-led international audit body.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar claimed in a phone call with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot today that Israel did not violate the ceasefire conditions.
The second article of the ceasefire agreement said, "Israel will not carry out any military attack on civilian, military or state-owned targets in Lebanon from land, sea or air". According to the agreement, if Israel believes that the ceasefire has been violated, it will report it to the ceasefire control body, and this body will try to prevent the violation through the Lebanese army and the UN Peacekeeping Force on the ground.
Threat to civilians
On the other hand, the Israeli army once again threatened the southern Lebanese who tried to return to their homes with the ceasefire.
Israeli Army Spokesperson Avichay Adraee stated on his social media account that the travel of the Lebanese to the south is "forbidden".
In the statement, Adraee pointed to the towns of Şeba, Al-Habariye, Mercayun, Ernun, Yahmer, El-Kantara, Şakra, Beraşit, Yatir and Al-Mansuri and said, "At this stage, you are prohibited from returning to your homes south of this line until the next announcement."
"Everyone who moves south of this line bears the responsibility for it," Adraee, who threatened, counting more than 60 village and town names, warning Lebanese not to return to these towns.
MIDDLE EAST
Published
1 hour ago 02/12/2024AuthorEditor's note: Recently, armed groups led by the HTS have launched a large-scale offensive in the countryside of Idlib and Aleppo. As a result of these attacks, supported by unmanned aerial vehicles and armored troops, dozens of villages and cities were captured along the strategically important M4 and M5 roads. Most of Aleppo and Serakib, which is of critical importance, came under the control of the opposition. While the defense lines of the Syrian army are collapsing, it is seen that the government forces are not capable of recovering these losses. This progress of the armed groups is not only military success, but also part of their efforts to regain the lost territories in 2019. Although the operation is presented as a retaliation for government attacks in Idlib, it represents a large-scale strategic move. Elijah J., a war correspondent with over 35 years of experience in the Middle East. According to Magnier, this situation increases the influence of the opposition groups supported by Turkey, while increasing the pressure on Iran, Hezbollah and other members of the Axis of Resistance. As the balance of power in the region changes, these attacks have the potential to reshape geopolitical maneuvers in northern Syria and the wider region.
Aleppo is shaken: Turkey's strategy and Resistance Axis are under pressure
Elijah J. Magnier, Middle East Politics
In the last 48 hours, Syrian opposition forces – with the support of Islamist jihadist groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ahrar al-Damasm – launched a major ground operation in the countryside of Idlib, the countryside of Aleppo and parts of the city of Aleppo.
As a result of these rapid and coordinated attacks carried out with the support of unmanned aerial vehicles and armoured troops, dozens of villages were captured, including strategic areas, along the M4 and M5 international roads connecting Damascus to Aleppo and Aleppo to Latakia.
Critical cities, like Serakib and most of Aleppo, also came under the control of the opposition. The Syrian army's defense lines have almost completely collapsed, and it seems that it is a matter of time before opposition forces take control of the entire city of Aleppo.
Tens of thousands of troops will be needed to recover these losses, but this is a resource that the Syrian army does not currently have.
This rapid and unexpected progress once again reveals the Syrian army's inability to effectively defend these regions, creating a great opportunity for Turkey's allies to advance its own goals.
The HTSR announced this operation under the name of "Dissupt the Attack" and presents it as a retaliation for the recent artillery fire of the Syrian government forces that caused the loss of civilian lives in Idlib.
But beyond a retaliation, the operation makes it clear that the opposition's intention to regain the territories it lost in the Serakib-Idlib wars in 2019. While the government forces were retreating irregularly, a defense line was hastily established in the province of Hama.
However, opposition forces are currently less than 20 kilometers from Hama, making it largely impossible for the government to take back the areas and surrounding countryside south of Idlib and Aleppo.
The recent attack in Aleppo and Idlib reveals a complex network of regional dynamics and geopolitical maneuvers that go beyond the Syrian conflict.
This operation by Syrian opposition forces, supported by Islamist groups, coincides with efforts to change the balance of power against the Resistance Axis, which includes Iran, Hezbollah and its regional allies.
Gradually, the members of this axis are targeted and each alliance member receives serious blows. As a result, this attack is preparing to reshape the balance of power in the north of Syria and the wider region.
It was claimed that Lebanon "must" elect the president during the 60-day ceasefire with Israel as the additional protocol of the ceasefire agreement. The Lebanese Parliament, which has not been able to elect its president for two years, will vote again in January.
Lebanon "must" elect a president during the 60-day ceasefire reached with Israel as part of the ceasefire agreement that ends the war with Hezbollah, Lebanon "must" The Lebanese parliament announced a new vote in January after several failed attempts in the last two years.
The announcement was made after the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
A senior Lebanese security source close to the ceasefire negotiations told The National, "During the negotiations that led to an agreement, it was agreed with the mediators that Lebanon should finally elect a president during the 60-day ceasefire. This is part of the agreement," he said.
According to a Lebanese government source, the ceasefire agreement “also included an additional protocol on the election of a president within 60 days and the formation of a government during this time. There was also an agreement on the re-operation of the institutions of the Lebanese state.” Another high-ranking political source in Beirut emphasized that "a session will also be held for the presidential election during the 60-day ceasefire" without giving further details.
Assembly Speaker Nebih Berri confirmed that the presidential election session will be held and said, "I immediately after the ceasefire, I promised myself that I would set a session date to elect the president of the republic. As of now, I declare that the session will be held on January 9. We have a one-month period for the agreement," he said.
It remains unclear whether the session will result in an election.
Berri's statement came when France's special envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian was visiting Beirut.
Lebanon's sectarian government system, rooted in the French mandate period, fores that the speaker of parliament is Shia, the prime minister is Sunni and the president is Christian Maruni. However, the Maronites and other parties they cooperate with politically cannot agree on the presidency among themselves.
Lebanon's President Michel Avn has been vacant since November 2022 with the expiration of his 6-year term. The Lebanese Parliament held the last of dozens of unsuccessful election attempts in June last year, but no candidate could provide a sufficient majority.
Hezbollah and the Emel Movement support the leader of the Christian Marada Movement, Süleyman Frenciye. Hezbollah's insistence on Frenciye was the end of its relations with his other Christian partner, the Free Patriots Movement. The Free Patriotic Movement Party and opposition independent deputies support Cihad Azuri, Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Middle East and Central Asia, who is the Ministry of Finance in the country for a while.