In Pursuit of a Quick Peace: Keith Kellogg’s “America First” Plan for Ukraine
It is no secret that Donald Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine as fast as possible. The issue was that, up until this point, he was all talk and no solution; that was until now. Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general and a member of Trump’s National Security Council, was nominated by President-elect Trump as his Special Envoy on Ukraine and Russia—that is, the person Trump designated to put an end to the war on his behalf.
Who is Keith Kellogg?
Keith Kellogg isn’t a widely recognized figure in Donald Trump’s group of advisors, but he has always been a constant fixture of his circle. He had been Trump’s foreign policy advisor during his 2016 campaign and was later in charge of the presidential transition for defense. During Donald Trump’s first presidency, Keith Kellogg was named as Chief of Staff to his National Security Council before being appointed as Vice President Mike Pence’s National Security Advisor.
During his time in office, Kellogg was a consistent defender of President Trump’s controversial actions. He had been one of the people that listened in on the conversation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy in 2019. He denied any wrongdoings that President Trump had said during his call with Zelenskyy, remarking that Trump didn’t say anything of concern. Nevertheless, the phone call, in which Donald Trump pushed for an investigation into the conduct of then-former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter, inevitably led to Trump’s impeachment charges. After Trump’s loss in 2020, Keith Kellogg and a number of other members of the administration would found the America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump think tank. Heading the American First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security, Keith Kellogg would criticize President Joe Biden’s approach to Ukraine and offered his own plan to end the war, ostensibly under a second Donald Trump presidency.
Kellogg’s Plan to End the War in Ukraine
In a study paper titled “America First, Russia & Ukraine,” Keith Kellogg shared his thoughts on the war in Ukraine. He squarely blamed the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine on President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, which he viewed as based on misguided ambition to push Ukraine into the west through NATO expansion. Kellogg argues that by pushing away Russia in favor of Ukraine, the Americans gave an excuse for Putin to intensify the war in Ukraine. Kellogg argues that rather than isolating Russia, the United States should open diplomatic talks with Russia. He saw that by isolating Russia, the United States gave a reason for Putin to openly challenge the American-led world order which led to the development of a new Russia-China-Iran-North Korea axis.
In his writing, Kellogg argues for an “America First” policy, especially in regards to foreign policy and on the issue of Ukraine. According to Kellogg, America First means that American foreign policy should be based on national security and a transactional approach to Russia rather than the liberal internationalist approach that President Biden had done. Keith Kellogg pushes for strong and decisive American leadership in the war, recommending that it should be formal American policy to seek a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. Kellogg argued that Ukraine should surrender their territories that are currently under the occupation of Russia in exchange for relief payments through Russian energy sales that can help to rebuild Ukraine. He admits that the United States has significant leverage on Ukraine through its major weapon supplies and that he will hold them off alongside its membership application for NATO so that they are forced into the negotiating table. Nevertheless, Kellogg still supports weapons shipment to Ukraine, albeit conditional to Ukrainian participation in the negotiations and Russian rejection of such talks.
American Optimism
Keith Kellogg’s plan for the conflict in Ukraine has the support within the planned second Trump administration. Donald Trump himself praised Keith Kellogg as someone who would prioritize American interests in Ukraine by achieving peace through strength. Based on Kellogg’s own testimony, Trump was pleased by the feedback Kellogg wrote on his plan for his arranged peace plan for Ukraine. Trump’s choice was supported by Michael Waltz, the prospective National Security Advisor, who remarked that Kellog is someone that could bring peace to Ukraine.
It cannot be argued that Donald Trump wants to play the dealmaker by projecting his strength through making a peace deal in Ukraine. According to Trump and his advisors, both sides are open to negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Trump, arguing that the war will end quicker with him in charge. This is further corroborated by the fact that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a phone call, asking to not escalate the war any further and expressing support for having further conversations to resolve the conflict. This was denied by the Kremlin, but it still means that there is a possibility for such talks to happen. Nonetheless, it is still questionable to say that Trump and Kellogg will find a quick solution to the problem.
Criticism Against Kellogg’s “America First” Plan
The selection of Keith Kellogg doesn’t necessarily mean that peace is guaranteed in Ukraine. Former Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, pessimistically commented that Trump will not have his peace deal. Kuleba argues that Russia will not agree to the west’s demands for Putin unless he gets what he wants, which is crushing Ukrainian statehood. The former foreign minister commented that Russia will not come into the negotiating table until the west caves into their demands, remarking that Putin sees the divide in the west in their support of Ukraine. For Zelenskyy, Kuleba argues, cannot agree to any peace agreements that surrender any occupied territories or give up NATO membership as it is against the constitution. Even if he does sign the peace with Russia, it would mean political suicide for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine’s position is further corroborated by Keir Giles, a fellow in Chatham House and writer of the upcoming book “Who Will Defend Europe?” He remarked that Trump and Kellogg’s plans will contradict President Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan” for Ukraine, especially as admission into NATO is a critical part of the plan. Giles agreed that Trump and Kellogg can leverage Ukrainian admission into NATO, but sees it as a misguided attempt as the only possible path to stability within the region is inevitably Ukrainian admission into the organization. Giles cautioned that a ceasefire would only work to the Russians advantage as it gives them time to prepare its next move.
Conclusion
Keith Kellogg’s appointment as Donald Trump’s Special Envoy on Ukraine and Russia means that the 47th president is adamant in finding a way to find a quick path to peace in the conflict in Ukraine. While Kellogg’s plan is thorough and offers an insight into the approach that a second Trump administration would take within the context of the Ukrainian conflict, it will be an almost impossible task to end the war as quickly as possible as Donald Trump wants it to be done.
There is an incredible threat that by withholding both NATO membership application and ceasing weapons supplies to Ukraine, Russia can afford to escalate its attacks on Ukraine, seeing a ceasefire as an opportunity to strategize. This isn’t helped by the fact that Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, even though pressured to take an opportunity to negotiate peace talks, will be hesitant if it means their political suicide. In the end, Ukraine’s sovereignty and Russia’s own interests can’t be eclipsed by Donald Trump’s adamant need to find a solution to this issue. That means that there is a possibility that Ukraine’s national goals can be ignored in favor of pushing Trump’s own agenda as it aligns with his “America First” policies, where the importance of American national security is put first.