Key insights from a discussion with Dr. James M. Dorsey:
Syria’s Internal Collapse
Dr. Dorsey described the Assad regime’s disintegration as “a tectonic shift” in the Middle East. Key rebel advances in Homs, Hama, and Aleppo highlighted the brittleness of the Syrian military, which he noted had “fallen apart” unexpectedly quickly.
The potential outcomes range from a severely weakened Assad to an internal coup. If Assad falls, rebel factions must navigate deep ethnic and sectarian divisions, leaving Syria’s future governance uncertain.
The unexpected absence of widespread violence against minorities during the offensive was noted as a "hopeful sign."
Iran’s Strategic Loss
Iran’s forward defense strategy faces severe disruption. Dr. Dorsey argued that the loss of Syria as a state ally and critical land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon weakens two of Iran’s defense pillars, leaving it reliant on ballistic missiles and its nuclear program.
Hezbollah, already weakened militarily and politically, faces further strain as Syria’s role as a transit route for arms is severed. Iran may need to reassess its relationships with non-state actors like Hezbollah.
Russia’s Position in Syria
Russia’s inability or unwillingness to halt Assad’s collapse underscores its reliance on local forces, which lacked the resolve to fight. Dr. Dorsey likened Russia’s potential withdrawal from Syria to the U.S. exit from Saigon in 1975, calling it a significant geopolitical blow.
Speculation about Ukrainian involvement in aiding rebels surfaced but was deemed of limited strategic significance by Dr. Dorsey.
Implications for Other Stakeholders
Turkey: Positioned as a potential kingmaker, Turkey could benefit if an Islamist-leaning government emerges in Damascus but risks conflict with the Kurds and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s decentralization efforts.
The U.S.: Washington’s focus on counterterrorism and containing the Islamic State may evolve if Assad falls. Dr. Dorsey highlighted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy under the incoming Trump administration, especially given its mixed stance on Syria.
Jihadist Groups: The fall of Assad could influence global jihadist strategies, potentially encouraging factions to adopt a more pragmatic or governance-oriented approach.