Talleyrand tracked down Ashraf Ghani* in his exile for a quick chat. Here is some of what he had to say: T: Your (ex-) Excellency, what are your thoughts about recent events in Syria? AG: Predictable, and predicted. T: By you? AG: Yes, and by anyone with a basic understanding of client-state politics. T: You mean to say, the Assads forget nothing and learn nothing? AG: Not exactly. I do not entirely blame Mr Assad for his downfall. I mostly blame his patrons. They gave up on him, perhaps for good reason, but they gave up. They always do, eventually. T: So you are really saying it’s the same thing that happened to you? AG: No. My family or tribe did not rule Afghanistan for half a century. I did not inherit my position. I went as the cooperative agent of a foreign power, and I did my best. Syria today is closer to what Afghanistan was in 1989 after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union. It’s a pit of worms. T: What basis do you give for that view? AG: I spent my university years in Lebanon. I know this part of the world. And its people. T: What will happen next? AG: I’ve already suggested it. Syria will stay in one piece only if two circumstances hold: another ruler emerges like Bashar al-Assad’s father; an understanding is reached amongst countries salivating over this territory to prioritise relationships with one another over what they hunger for in Syria, and over what they fear from their enemies at home if they don’t look strong in Syria. Neither circumstance is evident, as far as I can tell. T: So you imagine a much worse civil war in Syria? AG: I imagine it but I do not predict it. I imagine it because all the conditions are there for it. What’s missing is the precise cause. T: Who would gain from that war? AG: Nobody, except perhaps the Israelis. But even they may come to regret it. Who gained from half a century of war in my country? T: In the short term, what do you worry about most? AG: Iraq. * or possibly a man claiming to be Ashraf Ghani. Talleyrand is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Talleyrand that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless they enable payments. |