Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’aa (born 1982) known by his nom de guerre as
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the second emir of Tahrir al-Sham, liberated
Syria from the tyrant Bashar Al Assad
A far-sighted visionary and shrewd politician, al-Jolani is a new
kind of pragmatic, modern Jihadi leader whose foundational achievement
that paved the way for sudden victory was ending the infighting between
rebel groups and unifying all rebel military decision-making and the
military structure under one command. Infighting and ill-discipline had
long been the rebels’ Achilles Heel in the Syrian civil war that saw a
proliferation of factions who mistrusted one another and suffered a
multitude of internal problems including a prevalence of extremist
ideologies, as well as a casual regard for bloodshed and a lack of any
comprehensive plan or strategy.
While external interventions, including support from Russia, Iran and
Hezbollah, as well as US airstrikes, played a decisive role in
suppressing the revolution and helping the regime regain much of Syria,
the squabbling between the rebels themselves led to unnecessary
confrontations and violence which held up the revolution for years.
Many political and media missteps were also made giving the Assad
regime ample ammunition to rally regional support and buttress global
opposition to the revolution, while mercenaries and opportunists further
weakened the cause.
In four years Mohammed al-Jolani turned all this around.
While the Assad regime was steadily decaying and its allies Hezbollah
and Iran were being hammered by Israel, he was busy turning his small
jihadi group into a civilian administration and establishing a
micro-state in Idlib with a functioning government and a disciplined,
unified and strategically adept fighting force. Idlib’s government is
called the Salvation Government and HTS gives it allegiance. It is run
on conservative Sunni principles, the closest parallel being the Taliban
administration or cities in western Libya.
Al-Jolani’s group developed well-trained cadres, advanced military
production and established political channels to support its goals. It
created a governance model unparalleled in Syria, providing security,
independent judiciary services and basic necessities like food and
consumer goods. Idlib has supermarkets, German bakeries and Sushi restaurants.
Cleverly, he also managed to establish a reciprocal relationship with
the Turks without simply becoming their agent, despite the power
imbalance and in the face of the most adverse circumstances: no
international support, a people subjected to decades of authoritarianism
and oppression, Iranian and Russian occupation, war and bombing and a
massive number of IDPs.
Given his jihadi background, human rights and treatment of minorities
in the newly liberated territories have been among international
observers’ top concerns. So far HTS has been extremely eager to show
they take such issues seriously and the rebels’ Military Operations
Command has issued slick messaging placing emphasis on the rights of
minorities and prisoners. No one has told women to wear the veil and the
overwhelming majority of videos circulating online, including those
posted by minority groups themselves, show no serious violations. Thus
far government buildings are being protected and looting has mostly been
contained.
Although al-Jolani has been trying to rebuild his reputation in the
West for years, how the West will treat him going forward is unclear. He
is obviously keen not to aggravate Western powers but he remains a US
designated terrorist as do others in his network and it is hard to
imagine he would hand any of them over to the Americans, although he
might, like the Taliban, be ready to guarantee they would not target the
West from Syrian territory.
In 2021 a senior US official proposed working
with al-Jolani on the basis that he is the least bad option available
in Syria and in recent days there has been a steady beat of positive
Western media articles about him, significantly boosting his profile.
Ultimately, however, the West and Arab governments chose to prefer
Bashar al-Assad over any opposition group in Syria so it seems more
likely Donald Trump will listen to his Arab allies and Israel who will
warn him it would be better to give Mohammed al-Jolani and his incoming
revolutionary government the cold shoulder.
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