Syria, Mission Accomplished?
8 December 2024 by Larry C. Johnson https://sonar21.com/syria-mission-accomplished/
Remember all of the jubilation created in Baghdad by the CIA, who hired a crowd that stormed the center square and tore down the statue of Saddam Hussein? Remember the mobs looting the presidential palaces, banks and commercial outlets? Welcome to Damascus 2024. To quote Yogi Berra, “It is Déjà vu, all over again.”
I admit, I am surprised by how rapidly the Assad regime collapsed. This was not the result, primarily, of military pressure from the terrorist fighters of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Something else was afoot. A deal was cut and Assad was persuaded to abandon his government and head for Russia.
I am sure there are champagne corks a popping at CIA Headquarters in McLean, Virginia and at MI-6 Headquarters in London. I think this operation surpassed even their expectations. But, if the subsequent events that unfolded in Iraq in 2003 and in Libya in 2011 are any guide, the celebrations should be tempered with trepidation. Why? Because Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is now in charge. Instead of bringing peace and reconciliation, HTS will impose strict Sharia law and will punish those guilty of heresy — which means large segments of Syrian society are likely to be purged. HTS itself will become a target of terrorism. The most likely fate for Syria — at least for the next decade — is chaos and mayhem.
Who or what is HTS? According to the US Department of State Annex of Statistical Information, Country Reports on Terrorism 2018:
*Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) formed in January 2017 as a merger involving Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), the Ansar al-Din Front, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq, and the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement. In 2017, al-Nusra Front had 104 incidents, Liwa al-Haqq had 3 incidents, and HTS had 21 incidents directly attributed to them. This table represents the merged incidents and casualties of HTS and its member groups.
In the following year, 2019, HTS cemented its reputation as one of the “Top 10 Known Perpetrator Groups” in the world, and remained in the “Top 10” thru 2022 (the last year the report was released).
While it carried out a smaller number of attacks in 2019 compared to 2018, it killed a lot more people.
However, since its emergence in 2017, HTS has played second fiddle to ISIS, which has accounted for the overwhelming majority of terrorist attacks in Syria.
HTS is not a friend of Iran. It remains a fundamentalist Sunni Salafist movement. In terms of ideological extremism, it is a cousin of the settler groups in Israel, which are represented by Zionists like Bezalel Smotrich — they broker no compromise with anyone. Unlike Assad, who kept Christian Churches open and protected the Shi’a and Alawite communities, HTS is likely to persecute, if not outright murder, those groups. This means that floods of refugees will be headed back to Lebanon, north to Turkey, west to Europe and east to Iraq.
While the West is busy celebrating Assad’s downfall as a blow to Russia — and let me be clear, this is not an outcome that Moscow welcomed or wanted — Donald Trump and his advisors do not understand what happened. Trump issued the following on Truth Social:
Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever.
Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin.
Rather than acknowledge that an international terrorist organization has been allowed to seize control of the government of Syria, Trump indulges the fantasy that “Russia is in a weakened state right now.” I am sure that went over well with folks in the Kremlin. I bet they are shaking in their boots as the mighty colossus that is Donald Trump, strides the world stage.
Trump’s ignorant statement about Russia’s economy and its progress with respect to the war in Ukraine guarantees that Putin will be in no mood to sit down to negotiate with Trump or any of his water boys.
The chaos that is likely to consume Syria over the coming two months will cause more harm and danger for Turkey and Israel than for Russia and Iran. Yes, the fall of Assad was a diplomatic blow for both Moscow and Tehran, but managing the emerging security risks presented by an HTS-led government? Those hot turds are now the problem of Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel. Russia and Iran can sit back and watch or, through intelligence assets, help stir the pot.