[Salon] What Is Happening in Syria?




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Assad’s regime has fallen, leaving a power vacuum. Many rebel groups and foreign powers vie to fill it. This chess game is not just played in Syria, or even in the Middle East. This has global ramifications. Who are the winners of this change? Who will benefit? What does it mean for the future of the world?

This is a political map of the region:



But I don’t find it very insightful. And these other maps found online are very confusing, too:



So how can you understand what’s going on? Here’s a zoom out on what matters:



Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria are all in the Levant, a region that isn’t populated enough to become dominant, but is surrounded by superpowers. This makes the Levant these powers’ playing field. Who are the major players today?



Egypt is not a regional player here. Lately, it’s had its hands full with its own internal problems. Mesopotamia (Iraq) is weak after 20 years of war since the US invasion. It doesn’t have strong centralized power, but is ruled by a series of weaker groups, many of which have external influences from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The north is semi-autonomously controlled by the Kurds. That leaves mostly Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Mediterranean Powers.

Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Mediterranean powers.¹ The thing is each player has different objectives.

Iran wants to project its power all the way to the Mediterranean. This is one of the reasons why it supported Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Assad in Syria:



I’ll explain why this is the case in an Iran article that I will probably write soon.

Also, Iran is mostly Shia, and you also find pockets of Shias in Iraq and Syria. Influencing these countries is natural for Iran.



With this strategy, Iran had secured projection all the way to the Mediterranean:



Source: Caspian Report

But of course, Iran and Saudi Arabia are competing for regional dominance.



So since Iran is predominantly Shia and supported Assad, it was natural for Saudi Arabia to support the Sunni rebels. This is what it did for years during the civil war. The weakness of the Assad regime and the external support of Sunni extremists are two of the reasons why the Islamic State emerged in the area a few years ago:



Naturally, the US, being an enemy of Iran, also supported Sunni rebels against Assad. But many of these were extremist, so initially, the US supported extremism. Outside of that, it had no strong group to support—except for the Kurds in the northeast: The US has allied with the Kurds in their fights against both Sadam Hussein and ISIS.

Except Kurds are very inconvenient for both Turks and Iranians, because this is Kurdistan:



Since Kurdistani lands represent 18% of Turkish land, Turkey doesn’t want a Kurdistan nation to emerge, so it did everything it could to prevent its emergence in northern Iraq during the war there, and it’s doing the same now with Syria, opposing Kurdish forces.

But Turkey did not love Assad’s regime either, because it was a proxy for Iran, and Turkey wants its own influence in Syria. For example, it wants the Syrian refugees back home. So Turkey wanted neither Assad nor the Kurds, and was happy to support Turkish rebels in those regions.

Of course, Turkey is part of NATO, which means it’s a military ally of the US, so that’s pretty awkward: The US and Turkey are allies, but they support opposing groups on the battlefield. The US supports Kurds, while Turkey supports Sunni groups.

Meanwhile, since the US was entangled in Iraq and Afghanistan, it didn’t want to entangle itself too much in Syria, so it didn’t invest heavily there to displace Assad. Russia, allied with Iran because they both hate the US, saw an opportunity to enter the fray as a big international player, and helped Iran prop up Assad. It built military bases in Syria, and controls a maritime base on the coast in Tartus.



The Tartus Port in Syria

This was great for Russia because it could finally have a port in the Mediterranean, unimpeded by Turkey’s control of the Bosphorus! This was a key military base to reach into Africa, where Russia has mercenary groups that provide income and political influence.

This is how we ended with a map of Syria like this last year:



HTS is an independent Sunni rebel group. Originally an offshoot of Al Qaeda, it claims to be more inclusive and tolerant now. We will talk more about them below.

Although this doesn’t tell you the parts that matter. This is a satellite map of Syria:



It’s nearly all desertic, except for:

  • The coast, which is quite green and fertile

  • The south, which on the western side is populated

  • The northern border, especially the northeast, which is close enough to mountains to get some moisture

  • The Euphrates river, which crosses the desert

Which results in this map of population density:



Now, the map of different areas of control in summer of 2023 makes more sense:



  • Assad controlled most of the areas that mattered: Nearly all the west.

  • In the middle of the desert, there are remnants of ISIS.

  • His control in the northeast stopped at the Euphrates River, where Kurdish control began.

  • Turkey controlled several parts of its border with Syria via its proxies.

  • Then there’s this HTS group in the northwest, a Sunni militia that used to be part of Al Qaeda.

  • Finally, the US-supported militia in the southeastern border was basically in the desert. Not much power there. Why then? Because one of only three roads that connect Syria with Iraq crosses there.

This is how we ended up with this evolution of the war for the last 13 years:
Red: Assad

Green: Sunni rebels
Yellow: Kurds
Grey: ISIS

Source

The Fall of Assad

There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when everything happens. This is one of those weeks. But it’s been brewing for years now. Why did everything move so fast?

Russia had been one of the keys for the Assad regime to maintain control, bombing its enemies with airstrikes. But on February 24th 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. At that moment, nothing really mattered to Russia beyond winning that war. The presence in Syria became nice to have at best, a hindrance of military power at worst.

On October 7th 2023, Hamas attacked Israel. In the following months, Israel proceeded to break Hamas, neuter Hezbollah, and bomb Iran. Without its proxies in the region—especially Hezbollah, just on the border in Lebanon—it was much harder for Iran to support Assad. Its loss of international standing and military projection in the area weakened Iran, and thus Assad. The loss of Hezbollah’s fighters was even worse.

Meanwhile, Israel’s strength and standing in the region has improved. Other Arab countries have aligned themselves further with the country, most notably Saudi Arabia.

On November 5th 2024, Trump won the US election. Trump won’t directly meddle in Syria, but he is an unabashed supporter of Israel, and by extension an enemy of Iran. This made it even harder for Assad to expect support from Iran.

Turkey has grown more powerful over the last decade, and it has pushed from the north against Assad.

So Assad lost Iran’s support, Russia’s support, and Hezbollah’s support, while its Sunni opponents—Turkey and Saudi Arabia—grew stronger, supporting the rebels.

This is the context for the coup de grâce:

The Rise of HTS

This group was a small offshoot of Al Qaeda that controlled a small part of Syria’s northwest. It broke away from Al Qaeda in 2017 and has strived to shed its most radical image since.



HTS’s flag and leader

HTS controlled Idlib. Then it took Aleppo, then Hama in a matter of days.



Here are the celebrations in Hama:

Source

HTS´s takeover of Hama was so fast, and the support of Assad from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia so weak, that the rest of the Syrian army abandoned their arms.

So all the Syrian rebel groups took advantage of this to run as fast as they could:



As of December 7th 2024. Source.

This is how HTS could reach the coast and the capital, Damascus, in a matter of days: completely unimpeded.



Flag of the Syrian Salvation Government—political arm controlled by HTS militarily—in Damascus

Its leader, Al-Julani, arrived in Damascus and gave a sermon in its main mosque:

So what’s the map of the situation now?

Syria Today

You might see maps like this:

But from what I can tell, this is misleading, as it shows more control to the Syrian Free Army and its US backers and more ISIS influence than is accurate. I haven’t found a perfect map, but this gives a good sense:



The grey stripes mean it’s mostly desert, and here and there there might be some ISIS support.

HTS in grey, Turkish-supported forces in light yellow, Kurdish forces in purple, US influence in blue, US-backed forces in yellow around it, and the Southern Operations Room, controlled by Druze and other rebels in the south (yellow). The part I disagree with here is that it doesn’t show that HTS has control over the coast, but they probably do.

And what’s happening on the ground right now?

So here’s what’s going on:

  1. The Assad regime has completely fallen

  2. HTS is the biggest winner, having taken over the coast and reached Damascus

  3. Druze and other rebels from the south also reached Damascus, and control the south

  4. Turkish forces control a big chunk of the northern border

  5. Kurds control a big chunk of the northeast

  6. Turkish-backed forces are fighting Kurdish forces in the north, most likely to control as much land as possible before the situation stabilizes

  7. The US maintains control of a military base on the border with Jordan. Moderate Sunni rebels from that area, supported by the US, have reached out to take control of land in the desert and towards the capital

  8. Israel is taking advantage of the situation to destroy any military asset it can. In the last 24h, it has destroyed Syria’s entire air defenses, military research facilities, air bases, fighter jets, naval bases, and ammunition storages. It has taken control of the highest points on the border between Syria and Israel, so that a future government can’t threaten it from there

  9. Russia is withdrawing, but sometimes some of its soldiers are left stranded

Here is a map of Israel’s move:



You can imagine this is not a very stable situation. So what will happen next?

The Aftermath

Nobody knows, but given the situation, here’s what’s most likely to happen:

  • Assad is out, for good.

  • Iran is out of the game completely. It’s the most weakened player in the area.

  • Russia: It might keep its coastal military bases, at least for now. HTS has no strong interest in taking them now that Russia won’t support Assad. It might withdraw in an orderly manner.

  • The Turks and Kurds will continue fighting for the northeast. This is important for Turkey as the Kurds are a threat for their country, but it’s existential for the Kurds as they see this land as a future component of a potential Kurdistan.

  • HTS will try to form and lead a Syrian government.

What would such a government look like? HTS can’t beat the Turkish forces, or the Kurdish forces, or the US forces, or the Druze rebels in the south. It is strong, but has little international backing, and has only reached Damascus because Assad’s forces ran away. It will not inherit many weapons or bases from Assad, as Israel took care of them.

So there are three paths forward. One is letting it play out by force, continuing a civil war until one party prevails.

Another path forward could see an external power decide to heavily influence the balance. Iran and Russia are out. Trump has said he’s out. Israel just wants its own internal security. That leaves Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has not meddled too much here. As long as the Syrian government is pro-Sunni, I don’t expect them to do much—it looks like this will be the case. Turkey, meanwhile, could arguably reach for more influence in the region, although its main priority is fighting the Kurds, and it’s not good friends with HTS, so I’m not sure anything will happen there.

The final path forward is for HTS to negotiate with all the other parties to find common ground. Of course, no other party wants to give up the power they have taken, so that means building a state that is heavily decentralized, with different regions controlled by different autonomous governments.

So what should you expect in the coming weeks?

  • Russia, Iran, Israel, and the US manifesting their desire to negotiate with all the rebel parties at play.

  • The US backing up the Kurds on the Euphrates, but not on the northern border.

  • Turkey pushing for influence in the north, and for Syrian refugees to go back to Syria.

  • European powers to push for Syrian refugees to go back to Syria.

  • Talks and sabre-rattling between the different rebel groups in Syria.

  • Regional governance emerging, with very little centralized power.

  • HTS becoming stronger over the coming months as it controls all the most populated areas. They might be able to welcome refugees, recruit more fighters, and use the local resources to grow stronger.

In short, Assad’s cruel regime has ended. Russia’s games in the Middle East are done. Iran’s influence towards the Mediterranean is in a coma. Turkey and the Kurds continue to fight. The US gets out. Israel further strengthens its position. HTS tries to form a Sunni Muslim state in Syria. Syrian refugees across the Middle East and Europe can go home, with a big question mark looming over their heads: Will the next stage in Syria’s existence be more peaceful and productive than its past?
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