[Salon] What's happening Syria is probably the most incoherent geopolitical event I've come across, and the more you look into it, the more confusing it gets.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1867406620483031465
What's happening Syria is probably the most incoherent geopolitical event I've come across, and the more you look into it, the more confusing it gets.

I mean, just look at this list:

First of all, the speed of Assad's collapse still makes very little sense: after successfully holding out against multiple enemies for 13 years with Russian and Iranian backing in a brutal civil war, his regime suddenly crumbled in just 11 days with almost no bloodshed.
- The "liberators" of Syria being celebrated by the West are Islamist groups on their own official terrorist lists. The country's new leader, Al-Julani, still has a $10 million bounty on his head as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" for founding the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda.
- Biden called this "a historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future" while his administration continues to occupy a third of Syria, control its oil fields, maintain crippling sanctions, and bomb its territory... thereby obviously very much compromising this better future.
- Assad's Prime Minister immediately agreed to work with the rebels and they accepted him - despite being mortal enemies in a brutal 13-year civil war.
- Al-Julani, after years of orchestrating suicide bombings and sectarian massacres against civilians, is now suddenly positioning himself as "diversity friendly".
- Russia, despite being in an alliance with Syria dating back to the Soviet era, billions invested in protecting Assad, and their only Mediterranean naval base in Tartus, essentially shrugged it all and let their ally fall.
- Syria's new leaders remain bizarrely silent about Israel invading their territory and the U.S. bombing and occupying their country. They've said nothing about their strategic assets - including the entire navy and air force - being destroyed in U.S. and Israeli air raids.
- The U.S. maintains its occupation of a third of Syria (including most oil fields), claiming it's necessary to "ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS" - despite Trump declaring in 2019 (and the U.S. repeatedly confirming since) that "we have defeated ISIS in Syria". Western media largely ignore this ongoing occupation while celebrating Syria's "liberation".
- Hamas, while in the middle of a war with Israel, took time to congratulate the Syrian rebels - even though Assad was their (and Iran's) longtime ally and Syria's fall significantly weakens their own strategic position.
- The U.S. celebrates the liberation of Syrian prisoners while operating its own concentration camps in the country (https://newyorker.com/magazine/2024/03/18/the-open-air-prison-for-isis-supporters-and-victims) holding tens of thousands indefinitely without trial - half of them children - but that apparently doesn't count as oppression.
- Türkiye is fighting against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with apparent U.S. approval, while the SDF was fighting Assad (which the U.S. wanted) - meaning U.S.-backed forces are effectively fighting other U.S.-backed forces.
- Iran, normally eager to defend its regional interests, suddenly abandoned billions in investments and a crucial strategic ally in their "Axis of Resistance", evacuating their personnel and citizens within hours.

Truly one of the strangest chapters in modern geopolitical history. Every possible explanation contains its own contradictions, and most players are acting against their own stated principles and interests.

At this stage it looks like the simplest explanation might go something like this: the U.S. welcomes the fall of a longtime opponent; neighboring powers like Israel and Türkiye see an opportunity for territorial gain; rebel leaders seem willing to accept loss of sovereignty and territory in exchange for domestic control over a diminished Syria; Russia and Iran chose to cut their losses given other regional priorities; and smaller players like Hamas are scrambling to adapt. Still, the unprecedented speed and coordination of these events suggests we're missing some crucial pieces of this very strange puzzle.