[Salon] Syria’s free. Who’s next?



Syria’s free. Who’s next?

Summary: the success of the Syrian revolution and Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s sudden rise to power is sending shock waves through the region. 

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is now the de facto ruler of Syria and - assuming he survives - his new revolutionary government is destined to have profound implications not only for Syria but for its neighbours and countries in the surrounding region.

Although al-Jolani disavowed his transnational Jihadi ambitions years ago and has repeatedly made clear his liberation mission is solely about Syria, the impact of the revolution coupled with Syria becoming a safe haven for revolutionary activists across the Arab world is going to inspire the masses in other countries in the region to move against their tyrants. Just as Tunisia’s revolution sparked the 2011 Arab Spring, so Syria’s revolution promises to reignite the spirit of the Arab Spring or inspire an armed version of it.

Foreseeing this, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been supporting Assad for some time prior to the revolution to help his beleaguered regime stay afloat while lobbying Washington to take Syria off the sanctions list. When the rebel attack started the UAE, Egypt and Jordan all quickly voiced support for Assad. Saudi Arabia remained silent but made its position clear through the electronic flies and Al Arabiya which fully adopted the regime’s narrative, defending Assad and Hezbollah and platforming pro-Assad commentators. At the start of the offensive Al Arabiya reported that the rebels were being decisively pushed back and referred to Assad’s forces as ‘the Syrian army’ and its allies as ‘pro-Iran factions’, while calling the Sunni coalition by its old name Jebhat Al Nusra to remind viewers of al-Jolani’s terrorist roots.

The Israelis have also been watching events unfold in Syria with growing alarm. They too know that the empowerment of a revolutionary Sunni Jihadi state with military strength and strategic vision in Syria is going to significantly challenge their security and will enhance support for Palestine. Thus in the days before Assad’s overthrow the Israelis were in lockstep with the Arab regimes.

“We must support Assad; keeping him in power aligns with Israel’s interests” said Eliyahu Yosian, ex-Israeli Unit 8200 Intelligence member, as the rebels advanced last week. “Assad is a weak guy serving our interests. We must support Assad's existence.”

“[Israel’s interest is] that they continue fighting one another … It’s entirely clear to us that one side is Salafi jihadists and the other side is Iran and Hezbollah. We want them to weaken one another,” an Israeli official told the Times of Israel. That hope was dashed with the quick victory of HTS.


The Syrian revolution will inspire the masses in other countries in the region to move against their tyrants [photo credit: Ugur Yıldırım]

For all their faults Iran and Hezbollah had the benefit at least of being familiar foes who Israel knows well. Assad was the ideal frenemy: though Syria has been officially at war with Israel since the country was founded there was never any chance he was actually ever going to attack. The proof of this is that in the last few days Israel has deployed ground troops both into and beyond a demilitarised buffer zone for the first time in 50 years and conducted 480 airstrikes destroying targets including advanced weapons to prevent them falling into rebel hands, weapons that had previously been regarded as non-threatening in Assad’s hands. Monday night saw further escalation with the sinking of the Assad regime naval fleet at Minet el-Beida and Latakia.

As al-Jolani made clear in his victory speech in Damascus’ Ummayad Mosque on Sunday Iranian influence in Syria is now set to end which means the Iranian infrastructure Assad allowed to be implanted with its transit route from Iran to Hezbollah is going to be shut down. This is something Israel has sought to achieve for a long time, but in attacking Syria immediately in the wake of the HTS win it once again chose a military rather than a diplomatic route that is not going to bring security.

On the contrary, the dawn of a revolutionary Sunni Jihadi government in Syria, however softly it presents itself, is far more dangerous to Israel and the regional Arab leaders than Iran, Hezbollah and the Huthis. The Arab leaders are all locked in a war with Sunni political Islam and their dungeons are full of men like al-Jolani. Israel knows from its long war with Hamas, that Sunni Jihadis are a much more potent foe than Shia forces like Iran and Hezbollah because while Iran and the Shia forces claim the mantle of Islam, they fight Israel mostly out of a political motivation, to maintain a balance of power in the region against the US. Sunni Jihadis on the other hand fight for a different reason: out of a burning, inner religious conviction which dictates they will never give up until Israel is completely destroyed.

Given the sudden change in the fortunes of the Islamists it is to be expected Israel, the West and the Arab regimes that opposed the original Arab Spring will all quickly rally and try to find ways to undermine the revolution. Israeli officials have already developed a sudden interest in Syrian minorities with Netanyahu extending the hand of peace to the Druze, Kurds and Christians, as well as Muslims and the Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar saying at a press briefing on Monday that Israel has been talking with Kurdish rebels that control northeast Syria.

Many observers had disengaged from news about the Syrian civil war due to the widespread belief that the revolution was over and that the Assad regime had effectively regained control of much of the country. A similar thing happened with the Palestinian issue prior to the 7 October Hamas attack. In both cases such assumptions turned out to be wrong: the human desire for freedom from tyranny is universal and can never be fully suppressed.

With the overthrow of the Assad dictatorship optimism for revolutionary change among the peoples of the Arab world has surged. Whether that leads to the strategic foresight, unity, and disciplined leadership that is critical to navigating the challenges ahead and securing a brighter future for Syria and the region remains to be seen.

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