Israel Fears Assad's Fall Will Push Iran to Assemble a Nuclear Bomb - Middle East News - Haaretz.com
Following the dramatic developments in Syria, the intelligence communities of Israel, the United States and other Western countries are concerned that Iran may break out – that is, produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon – and assemble such weapons. Such a scenario may be the direct result of the fall of President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria and Israel's trouncing of Hezbollah, both of which greatly weakened Iran and dealt a blow to its ambition to surround itself with a ring of Shi'ite proxies across the Middle East.
Another important factor that may affect Tehran's strategic thinking is the attack in October by the Israeli Air Force — reportedly F-35 Stealth planes — that destroyed most of Iran's air defense batteries,leaving the country even more vulnerable to penetration.
The decision whether or not to break out depends on one person: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- As Syria collapses, will Iran go for the nuclear bomb to reclaim regional deterrence?
- Assad's fall deals a major blow to the Iranian axis but poses challenges for Israel
- Would they go nuclear? Iran and U.S. face a choice that could change the Middle East
At the same time, there is growing concern in the West that the Netanyahu-led government will try to take advantage of Tehran's weakness and regional isolation and order the air force to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. More than a decade ago Netanyahu and his then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak contemplated a strike on Iran's nuclear sites but were blocked by the United States and Israeli defense chiefs.
However now, once again, there are voices from right-wing political circles and certain quarters of the security establishment calling on Israel to use this opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. One of the clearest voices on this issue is former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who believes that Israel should use all its "capabilities" to prevent Iran from assembling nuclear weapons.
The presidential palace in Damascus on Sunday.Credit: Omar Sanadiki/A.P.
Since the end of its war with Iraq in the late 1980s, and especially following the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Khomenie, Iran has been renewing its nuclear program, which was initiated during the Shah's reign. The program was ostensibly for peaceful purposes, to generate electricity for medical research and industry, but under the veil of a civilian program it is also aimed at developing nuclear weapons.
The relatively slow pace of the secret Iranian military program is attributed to two main factors. One is the hesitation of the supreme leader and his aides, who are not certain for many reasons, including religious ones, that assembling nuclear weapons will benefit Iran. It is said that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a "fatwa," a religious decree, opposing nuclear weapons because they kill innocent people and therefore violate Muslim beliefs.
It is worth noting that all the countries that have developed nuclear weapons – the United States, Russia, U.K., France and China, as well as India, Pakistan, South Africa (which dismantled its program) North Korea and, according to reports, Israel – did so between three to seven years after their respective political leaderships made that an objective.
International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi.Credit: Joe Klamar / AFP
The second explanation for the delay is due to Israel's systematic campaign, with the help of the United States and other Western countries, against Iran. The tactics and measures used in the campaign in the last decade included, according to reports, assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, sabotage of nuclear facilities, penetration and "poisoning" of computers, confiscation of equipment intended for Iran and painful economic sanctions.
The signing in 2015 of the nuclear accord between the six world powers (U.S., Russia, China, U.K. France and Germany) and Iran, which tightened the inspection of its nuclear program, also helped slow the program.
After U.S. President Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the agreement in 2018, and especially since 2020, the Islamic Republic accelerated the pace of its nuclear development and returned to the clandestine military path. In fact, Iran has been considered a nuclear threshold state for at least the last two years.
A few days ago, Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), rang the alarm bells. The United Nations agency is responsible for overseeing nuclear proliferation in the world, with a special focus in recent years on Iran. Grossi said last Saturday at the international security conference in Bahrain, that Iran has dramatically increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent, just below the level of purity needed for a nuclear weapon.
Three weeks ago, Grossi visited Iran's two enrichment facilities – Fordow and Natanz – which are fortified deep underground. He met with Iran's nuclear program officials and asked for explanations and clarifications. In these two facilities Iran houses its uranium enrichment centrifuges, some of which are advanced and spin very fast. The answers Grossi heard were not satisfactory and only increased his fears.
A nuclear reactor in Iran.Credit: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP
According to the latest IAEA report, Iran has already accumulated more than 100 kilograms of enriched uranium to a level of 60 percent. There is no scientific justification for enrichment at such a level in order to advance a civilian program, meaning the only explanation is that it is intended to be used for nuclear weapons. In a short time, a matter of a few weeks, Iran can accelerate the rate and enrich the uranium from 60 percent to 90 percent, which would turn it as fissile material sufficient to assemble five bombs.
Intelligence experts believe that the acceleration of the uranium enrichment rate is a move that reflects Iran's concerns about the impending change of the U.S. administration on January 20. It appears that Iran is preparing for the possibility that, upon Donald Trump's entry into the White House, he will impose even more severe and crippling sanctions, not only to hurt its economy but also to cause the fall of the regime. To prevent this possibility and to ensure the regime's survival, Iran is striving to reach a situation in which it can announce within a week or two that it has succeeded in assembling nuclear weapons. Tehran's assumption is that in such a scenario, the United States will be deterred from attacking it.
This is exactly the precedent set by North Korea. Because it has nuclear weapons and missiles as delivery measures, the Western powers, primarily the United States, are afraid of attacking Pyongyang. In other words, Iran is seriously discussing assembling nuclear weapons this time to serve as an insurance policy for the survival and perseverance of the regime.
At the same Bahrain conference, Grossi also expressed his concern that Israel might decide to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel has been preparing plans for such an attack, and its leaders, from former Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer to Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu, threatened to do so. The late Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who opposed such an attack, said in 2010 that the military strike should be the last resort only when "the sword is on your neck."