The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has once again pushed Syria into an era of uncertainty. After decades of rule, a swift rebel offensive from North overran Bashar-al-Assad forces, compelling him to flee to Moscow, where he has been granted asylum. While the streets of Damascus erupted in celebration, the future of Syria is still shrouded with ambiguity as well as fear. The war against Assad may be over, but the conflict has left a fractured and polarized nation facing looming threat of another insurgency for occupying the newly created power vacuum. Various factions, who were united against Assad regime, may compete against each other. Whoever will fill the power vacuum will not only shape Syria’s destiny but also influence the stability of the broader region.
Situation in Syria is rapidly changing. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have clashed fiercely in the North. Manbij, a strategic town near the Turkish border, has been captured by SNA. Meanwhile, Russian forces are hastily withdrawing their assets from their military bases. The status of Russia’s prized assets, the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Facility, remains uncertain as Moscow is attempting to engage with new Syrian leadership to protect both bases. Amid uncertainty, Russia already is moving ships from Tartus Naval Facility as a precautionary move. While these bases are integral to sustaining Russia’s influence in Middle East, Mediterranean Sea and Africa, there is speculation that they might be relocated to Libya under Khalifa Haftar’s control if Russia’s position in Syria weakens further.
Amidst these tensions, some Western analysts are once again floating the idea of partitioning Syria into three sections to stabilize the region. However, such a solution is likely to face strong opposition from Syrian rebels who have fought too hard against Assad, Russia, and Iran to established control over entire country. The threat of reemergence of ISIS adds another layer of complexity to Syria’s already fragile situation. U.S. forces have intensified efforts to neutralize the group’s infrastructure, but skepticism abounds among Syrian rebels. Many view this as a pretext for maintaining an American military presence in the region.
With several non-state actors now controlling different geographical sections of country, it’s difficult to predict future outcome. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist faction that controls much of Syria’s population, has emerged as a key player. Led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, HTS has rebranded itself and now controls major cities such as Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Homs, along with the country’s vital coastline. The southern half of Syria is managed by two factions allied with HTS: the Syrian Free Army (SFA) and the Southern Operations Room(SOR). The SFA, an American-backed group originally stationed near the Jordanian border, has expanded its control to parts of Damascus and other strategic locations. Meanwhile, the SOR—a coalition of Sunni Syrians and the Druze minority—acts as a buffer zone between Syria and Israel. While these factions contribute to HTS’s broader goals, their divergent interests also pose the threat of conflict between these factions.
Ethnic and sectarian divisions further complicate the post-Assad Syria. Country’s demographic landscape includes Alawites along the coast with Mediterranean Sea, Druze communities in the south, Kurds in the north, and a Sunni Arab majority spread across the country. Years of war have widened these divides, making mutually-agreed governance nearly impossible.
The most dominating faction, HTS, faces stiff competition from the SNA and SDF. The SNA, backed by Turkey, controls a relatively small territory rear the Turkish border in North-East Syria. But they control advanced weaponry and can thus employ effective firepower with superior situation awareness. The SDF, dominated by Kurdish forces and supported by United States, holds a more significant portion of the country in North East. However, the region occupied by SDF is predominated by Arab population, thus creating friction within. Recently, Arab protests against SDF authority have increased, with incidents of civilian casualties and curfews imposed by SDF forces. These tensions highlight the fragile foundation of SDF control, which relies heavily on external backing rather than public support.
Turkey, a key player in Syria’s future, has made its stance on the SDF clear. Viewing the group as an extension of the PKK, a Kurdish separatist organization deemed a terrorist entity by Ankara, Turkey sees the SDF as a direct threat to its national security. The extent of Turkey’s influence in shaping Syria’s post-war landscape will depend on its ability to rally support among local factions and dissolve SDF power. In future, the SDF is likely to face a coalition of HTS and the SNA, backed by Turkey – a scenario that can dismantle SDF from entire region.
Adding to the complexity is the issue of Syrian refugees. As of 2024, the United Nations reports, at least 7.4 million Syrians remain internally displaced, with approximately 4.9 million seeking refuge in neighbouring countries. An additional 1.3 million have resettled elsewhere, mostly in Europe. As stability returns to parts of Syria, thousands are attempting to return home, but reconstruction efforts are insufficient. The World Bank estimates that rebuilding Syria’s infrastructure will require over $400 billion—a daunting figure that delays the safe resettlement of refugees.
Meanwhile, defecting Assad loyalists are fleeing toward Iraq, abandoning their weapons. These individuals, with military expertise, could pose a future threat, potentially forming militant groups that can be used by foreign powers. The rapid rise of ISIS, after all, was partly fueled by former Iraqi military personnel who had the training, weapons as well as will to fight asymmetric war for regaining control in the Middle East.
As Syria teeters on the edge of a new chapter, its future remains uncertain. Avoiding ignition of another civil war should be the top priority. The international community, regional powers, and Syrian factions must tread carefully to avoid trapping the country into another cycle of violence. Only through inclusive governance, meaningful reconstruction, and genuine reconciliation can Syria hope to rise from the ashes of war.