Of all the nations bracing for Donald Trump’s impact, good and bad, consider El Salvador.
The Central American country was once synonymous with a brutal 1980s civil war that left a legacy of poverty and gang violence.
Today, it’s better known for gourmet coffee and President Nayib Bukele’s state-backed gamble on Bitcoin.
Bukele was reelected in a landslide this year after deploying the army to eradicate the gangs. He’s made El Salvador hugely safer, while swelling its prison population to the highest per capita in the world.
Now he wants to tackle the economy, held back for decades by inadequate infrastructure, poor schooling and constrained investment.
Tourism and construction are booming due to the improved security situation. Coffee growers can visit their farms without fear.
But much of the country remains trapped in poverty, and broader economic growth is elusive.
Bukele’s aides believe the nation is poised to benefit from port expansions, a new airport, and falling borrowing costs ahead of an expected $1.4 billion International Monetary Fund deal.
Then there’s his warm relations with the US president-elect.
Bukele spoke in support of Trump’s presidential bid at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February. CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp in turn promised US help for his fellow conservative’s economic goals.
Trump’s embrace of crypto has since buoyed El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings.
But he may be a mixed blessing for Bukele.
An estimated 750,000 undocumented Salvadorans live in the US, second in number only to Mexicans.
Trump’s pledge to deport large numbers of migrants would cause major challenges for El Salvador — not least financial, since remittances account for more than a fifth of economic output. His transition team is already reaching out, sources say.
Trump’s unpredictability is by now a known unknown.
Bukele’s problem is that it applies equally to political allies as it does to foes. — Alan Crawford