A Tale of Three Occupations
Source: Reddit
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Syria tells the story of not one but three occupations. It also tells the story of a region in which states cynically trample over ethnic groups’ aspirations and rights.
Palestinians are the prime example with the horrors of the 15-month-old Gaza war and a history of denial of an internationally recognised right to a national existence of their own.
In Syria, it’s not Palestinian aspirations that are at stake.
It’s Kurdish aspirations in the north, imperiled by Turkey, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Syria’s rebels-turned-governors, and the United States, and the rights of Syrian nationals in the southeast as Israeli troops expand their Syrian footprint by taking over villages in or near the occupied Golan Heights.
Both Kurds and Syrians in Israeli-occupied territories feel abandoned, albeit for different reasons.
The Syrians complain that the Hayat Tahrir government has not bothered to talk to them despite Israeli advances.
“We are upset with the new leaders for failing to be with us. We’re told they are in Aleppo, Hama, Homs etc. Can’t they at least send someone to meet with us? They are nowhere to be seen. The Israeli tanks are right here; they are destroying the trees,” Abou Jihad, the village chief of Western Somdaniya, told Al Jazeera.
Village chief Abou Jihad
With other villagers gathered around him, Abou Jihad worried that they were witnessing a repeat of the Golan Heights, conquered by Israel during the 1967 Middle East war and occupied since.
Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981 in violation of international law. That did not prevent US President-elect Donald J. Trump from endorsing the annexation during his first term in office.
“An Israeli soldier asked me in Arabic whether I am the village chief. When I said yes, he asked if he could come over. I asked, for what purpose have you come here? This is our land, to which he replied, ‘No this is the land of Israel.’ I answered, ‘No, you are coming as an occupier; we are not moving from here,” Abou Jihad recounted.
Earlier this week, Israel approved expanding the 30 existing settlements on the Golan Heights to double their current 20,000 residents.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the move was necessary because a "new front" had opened on Israel's border with the rise of an Islamist government in Damascus.
Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Mohamed al-Jolani, has insisted he does not want conflict with Israel.
Similarly, he does not want problems with Turkey, which occupies Syrian territory in northern Syria, claiming, like Israel, security concerns. While not dependent on Turkey, Mr. Al-Jolani’s rebel group, Hayat Tahrir, has long benefitted from Turkish support.
Even so, Turkey’s presence and conflict with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a predominantly Kurdish militia backed by 900 US troops that control Syria’s oil and gas fields, poses a more immediate threat to stability in post-Assad Syria.
The Syrian Democratic Forces served as the ground troops in the US-led fight against the Islamic State and manage the Abu Hol detention camp, which hosts thousands of the militant group’s associates and their families.
Turkey asserts that the Syrian Democratic Forces and the People’s Defence Units (YPG), the SDF’s backbone, are extensions of the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). The PKK has waged a four-decade-long low-intensity guerilla war in southeastern Turkey in demand of Kurdish rights, in which tens of thousands have died.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) recently drove the Syrian Democratic Forces out of Tal Rifaat, a Kurdish-controlled town 40 kilometres north of Aleppo. A ceasefire in the city of Manbij broke down this week, with SDF fighters retaining parts of the city as well as control of the Tishreen Dam.
The Turkish defence ministry denied a US State Department report that Turkey had agreed to a ceasefire.
Turkish Defence Ministry spokesman Zek Akturk rejects ceasefire. Credit: Hurriyet
"We do not negotiate with terrorist organizations; we believe this is a slip of the tongue. We emphasize that we will continue to take preventive and destructive measures against terrorist organizations and cooperate with the new administration in Syria in the fight against terrorism," said ministry spokesman Zeki Akturk.
Mr. Akturk further insisted that Turkey would not allow an autonomous Syrian Kurdish entity to emerge in northern Syria.
Two influential US senators, Chris Van Hollen and Lindsey Graham, a Democrat and a Republican, warned of bipartisan-backed sanctions against Turkey if it rejects a US and SDF proposal for a ceasefire and a demilitarized zone in the town of Kobani, the likely next Syrian Democratic Forces-Syrian National Army battlefield.
Messrs. Van Hollen and Graham argued that Turkish attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces undermine regional stability and efforts to prevent an Islamic State resurgence. US forces attacked multiple Islamic State facilities in Syria in recent days.
The senators issued their warning as Biden administration officials asserted that Turkey was concentrating Turkish commandos, allied militia fighters, and artillery along the border with Syria, dismantled the border wall near the town of Kobani, and increased drone attacks on Manbij in preparation for a possible large-scale incursion.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested the new Syrian government could fend off an incursion if it addressed the Kurdish issue “properly.”
Ilham Ahmed, an official in the region’s Syrian Kurdish civilian administration, warned in a letter to Mr. Trump that Turkey aimed to “establish de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory., If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic.”
Mazloum Abdi, the Syrian Democratic Forces’ commander offered to expel non-Syrian Kurds from territory it controls in a bid to avoid a military conflagration that would likely not end well for the group.
Turkey demands that all PKK-linked SDF commanders leave Syria.
The senators’ threat potentially could dampen Turkish hopes that the incoming Trump administration would abandon its Kurdish allies, withdraw US forces from Syria, give Turkey a free hand, and let it lead the fight against the Islamic State.
Mr. Trump wanted to withdraw US forces during his first term but his aides dissuaded him.
Last week, Mr. Trump appeared to endorse Turkey’s backing of Hayat Tahrir’s toppling of the Al-Assad regime despite calling it an “unfriendly takeover.”
Donald J. Trump discusses Syria
“Those people that went in are controlled by Turkey. And that’s okay, that’s another way to fight,” Mr. Trump said.
“Turkey’s the one behind it. Erdogan’s a very smart guy; they’ve wanted it for thousands of years, and he got it,” Mr. Trump added, referring to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Mr. Trump’s assessment may not be far off the mark.
Some Turkish pundits fantasise about a neo-Ottoman Middle East map in which Syria is part of Turkey.
Source: Reddit
Mr. Erdogan fuelled the fantasies by saying, “Every incident that has occurred in our region, especially in Syria, reminds us of this fact: Turkey is bigger than Turkey.” Mr. Erdogan said Turkey “cannot limit its horizons to its current surface area” and cannot “escape or hide from its destiny.”
Lamenting that the Middle East’s borders were defined after World War I and the demise of the Ottoman Empire, Mr. Erdogan asserted that Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, and Raqqa could have been “part of our homeland.”
Commenting on Turkey’s maneuvers, journalist Aliza Marcus, author of a book on the PKK, argued, “The crazy thing about this is the Kurdish force in Kobani poses zero threats to Turkey. The border is perfectly flat, and Turkish tanks (backed by drones) can roll over whenever they want. This isn’t about security; it’s about dismantling Kurdish control.”
Invoking the principle of territorial integrity, Turkey and Hayat Tahrir have found common ground in calling for a unified Syrian state with no federal regions and the integration of all militias into a reformed Syrian military, which would rule out Syrian Kurdish autonomy and involve disarming the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkey has offered to train the reconstituted Syrian military.
Ahmad al-Sharaa (center) meets Syrian National Army (SNA) representatives. Source X
Mr. Al-Sharaa, Syria’s new leader, met Turkish-backed militias, including the Syrian National Army, but has ignored efforts by the Syrian Democratic Forces to arrange a meeting. The SDF signalled its acceptance of Mr. Al-Sharaa’s leadership by raisingthe revolutionary flag in the territories it controls.
Mr. Al-Sharaa predicted Syria would develop “strategic relations” with Turkey, “Turkey has many priorities in the reconstruction of the new Syrian state… We trust Turkey when it comes to transferring its experience in economic development to Syria,” Mr. Al-Sharaa said.
Of the three occupying forces, Turkey, for now, has emerged the winner in the Great Game for Syria, at the expense of not only Russia and Iran, Mr. Al-Assad’s former backers but also Israel and the United States.
Cautioned Middle East scholar Steven A. Cook: “The Turkish government has repeatedly said to Trump and other US presidents that Ankara is prepared to fight extremists in Syria, but it is a self-serving claim. The record demonstrates that Erdogan and company are more interested in undermining US support for the Syrian Democratic Forces.”
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.